Abstract
The current best practices in measuring, monitoring, and forecasting economic cycles are drawn from the experience of mature economies such as the USA, Japan, and several Western European countries. Meanwhile, there are a lot of peculiarities in emerging economies that should be kept in mind when developing a system for tracking and forecasting their short-run dynamics. In the literature, there have been numerous attempts to apply the international best practices to emerging economies, but these attempts have usually been sporadic. The experience of the BRICS economies accumulated in this book allows for a fresh look on the problem of the development and use of cyclical indicators and is potentially useful for other emerging countries.
Support from the Basic Research Program of the National Research University Higher School of Economics is gratefully acknowledged by Sergey Smirnov.
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Notes
- 1.
See “national” chapters in Part II of this book.
- 2.
See Kershoff (2018) for details.
- 3.
In fact, UNSD and Eurostat with the cooperation of Statistics Canada, the CBS (Statistics Netherlands) and Rosstat organized a series of seminars (held in 2009 and 2010) to discuss these and related issues and initiated projects to document the state of the art.
- 4.
See “national” chapters in Part IV for details.
- 5.
- 6.
- 7.
See Ozyildirim (2018) for details.
- 8.
See Bry and Boschan (1971).
- 9.
See Campelo et al. (2018).
- 10.
“National” chapters from Part IV of this volume distinctly fill this gap.
- 11.
Mazzi and Cannata (2017: 542) advised to use time series covering “at least two or three cycles, i.e., 15–18 years.” Developers from emerging and transition countries are often more impatient and narrow this period by a decade to 5–8 years (approximately one cycle and a half).
- 12.
See Smirnov (2011: 10–13) for their survey.
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Smirnov, S.V., Ozyildirim, A., Kershoff, G. (2019). Measurement, Monitoring, and Forecasting Economic Cycles: BRICS Lessons. In: Smirnov, S., Ozyildirim, A., Picchetti, P. (eds) Business Cycles in BRICS. Societies and Political Orders in Transition. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-90017-9_29
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