Theory III: Interstate Conflicts

Abstract

presents a deductively derived Conflict Resolution Model, which specifies six independent variables, that is, basic causes, of the termination of interstate conflicts. These are as follows: Collective Exhaustion, physical, and/or psychological; Changes in the Balance of Capability, military, and economic; External Pressures for Resolution, on one or more adversaries; Domestic Pressures for Resolution, on one or more adversaries; Reduction in Discordant Objectives; and Reduction in Conflict-Sustaining Acts. None of these is considered a necessary condition of conflict resolution. The core postulate of this model is that the presence of any one of the six conditions (causes) contributes to the likelihood of conflict resolution; the larger the number of these conditions (causes) that are present, the more likely it will be for conflict resolution to occur; and when all six conditions (causes) are present, conflict resolution is virtually certain. An important intervening variable is the perceptual calculus of the adversarial decision-makers: how they perceive the reality of these conditions will shape their definition of the situation, notably the content and extent of the value threat posed by the crisis adversary(ies), another intervening variable in this model, and their ability to cope successfully with the threat(s) posed by the adversary(ies). Another potentially intervening component of the conflict resolution model is the type of catalyst or trigger to the perception of value threat by the decision-maker(s) of the intended adversary. Finally, this model generates hypotheses on Conflict resolution, the findings on which will be presented in Chaps. 8 and 9.