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Climate Conflicts: The Pathways

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Climate Conflicts - A Case of International Environmental and Humanitarian Law

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Abstract

This chapter establishes the two components ‘climate’ and ‘conflict.’ The risks climate change poses to security are outlined, as well as the ongoing debate on the connection of climate impacts and conflicts.

Two different scenarios of climate conflicts need to be distinguished: (1) GHG emission leads to climate change which damages a state in a way that this damage simultaneously constitutes a violation of certain rights. (2) The more complex pathway also starts from GHG emissions leading to climate change and damage; however, this damage causes certain reactions within a state that may possibly lead to destabilization. Conflicts could be triggered or accelerated due to this process on the national, international, or even global level.

This chapter examines the different pathways from GHG emission to conflict. The anchor of the chapter is a graphic displaying the different pathways and categorizing the damages according to direct and indirect climate change damages and displaying the different levels of conflict.

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Notes

  1. 1.

    IPCC WGI AR5 Summary for Policymakers 2013, p. 11.

  2. 2.

    IPCC WGII AR5 Summary for Policymakers 2014, p. 17.

  3. 3.

    IPCC WGI AR5 Summary for Policymakers 2013, p. 26.

  4. 4.

    IPCC WGII AR5 Summary for Policymakers 2014, p. 20.

  5. 5.

    Ibid., p. 17.

  6. 6.

    World Meteorological Organization, http://www.wmo.int/pages/themes/climate/climate_projections.php.

  7. 7.

    Ibid.

  8. 8.

    Climate Institute: http://www.climate.org; http://www.climate.org/topics/sea-level/index.html.

  9. 9.

    Ibid.

  10. 10.

    Buhaug et al. (2008), pp. 8, 9.

  11. 11.

    Reuvenny (2007), p. 658.

  12. 12.

    Islam and Miah (2003a, b), p. 11.

  13. 13.

    Islam and Miah (2012), http://en.banglapedia.org/index.php?title=Saline_Soil.

  14. 14.

    http://ochaonline.un.org/OCHAHome/InFocus/ClimateChangeHumanitarianImpact/TheThreatofClimateChange/tabid/5932/language/en-US/Default.aspx.

    ‘Since the AR4, the observational basis has increased substantially, so that some extremes are now examined over most land areas. Furthermore, more models with higher resolution and a greater number of regional models have been used in the simulations and projections of extremes.’ See: IPCC WGI AR5 Summary for Policymakers (2013), p. 121.

  15. 15.

    http://ochaonline.un.org/OCHAHome/InFocus/ClimateChangeHumanitarianImpact/TheThreatofClimateChange/tabid/5932/language/en-US/Default.aspx.

  16. 16.

    Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2012), p. 7.

  17. 17.

    Sullivan (2008), p. 305.

  18. 18.

    Holmes (2008), http://www.reliefweb.int/rw/rwb.nsf/db900sid/YSAR-7DHL88?OpenDocument.

  19. 19.

    http://www.nbi.ku.dk/english/news/news12/tropical-cyclones-are-occurring-more-frequently-than-before/.

  20. 20.

    World Meteorological Organization (2014), http://library.wmo.int/opac/index.php?lvl=notice_display&id=16279.

  21. 21.

    Ibid., p. 6.

  22. 22.

    World Research Institute Earth Trends Environmental Information. See: http://earthtrends.wri.org/.

  23. 23.

    Ibid.

  24. 24.

    Smith and Vivekananda (2007), p. 3.

  25. 25.

    Goodhand (2001), p. 23.

  26. 26.

    Heads of State and Government of the NATO Nations (2010), http://www.nato.int/lisbon2010/strategic-concept-2010-eng.pdf.

  27. 27.

    On hybrid threats, see generally: Hoffmann and Frank (2009).

  28. 28.

    Verstegen (2001), p. 10.

  29. 29.

    German Advisory Council on Global Change (WBGU) (2008), p. 158.

  30. 30.

    Gleditsch et al. (2007), p. 3.

  31. 31.

    Sullivan (2008), p. 306.

  32. 32.

    German Advisory Council on Global Change (WBGU) (2008), p. 37.

  33. 33.

    Sullivan (2008), p. 306.

  34. 34.

    German Advisory Council on Global Change (WBGU) (2008), p. 36.

  35. 35.

    Smith and Vivekananda (2007), p. 21.

  36. 36.

    Dworkin (1998), p. 225.

  37. 37.

    Raz (1985), pp. 295–314.

  38. 38.

    German Advisory Council on Global Change (WBGU) (2008), p. 158.

  39. 39.

    Sullivan (2008), p. 304.

  40. 40.

    Brennan (1999), p. 4.

  41. 41.

    Gleditsch et al. (2007), p. 3.

  42. 42.

    German Advisory Council on Global Change (WBGU) (2008), p. 116.

  43. 43.

    Stern (2006) http://www.occ.gov.uk/activities/stern.htm.

  44. 44.

    Gleditsch et al. (2007), p. 4.

  45. 45.

    Reuvenny (2007), p. 659.

  46. 46.

    For a thorough overview on the matter, see: Knudsen et al. (2013).

  47. 47.

    Christiansen (2010), pp. 9–17.

  48. 48.

    German Advisory Council on Global Change (WBGU) (2008), p. 117.

  49. 49.

    Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report, AR4 (2008); Sullivan (2008), p. 304.

  50. 50.

    Smith and Vivekananda (2007), p. 3.

  51. 51.

    Sullivan (2008), p. 297.

  52. 52.

    World Commission on Environment and Development (1987), p. 19.

  53. 53.

    Ibid., p. 291.

  54. 54.

    The Palme Commission was an independent international commission for disarmament and common security, named after the Swedish prime minister, Olof Palme.

  55. 55.

    Waldmann (2004), p. 104.

  56. 56.

    Ibid.

  57. 57.

    United Nations, Report of the Secretary-General on the Work of the Organization, A/49/1, 2.09.1994.

  58. 58.

    Barnet and Adger (2005), pp. 11 ff., http://www.auswaertiges-amt.de/cae/servlet/contentblob/389714/publicationFile/4506/17-GF-Barnett.pdf.

  59. 59.

    Sondrop and Patel (2003), pp. 139, 140.

  60. 60.

    Gleick (1993).

  61. 61.

    Wolf (2006).

  62. 62.

    Sullivan (2008), p. 297.

  63. 63.

    Sullivan (2008), p. 297.

  64. 64.

    Hague and Ellingsen (1985), pp. 299–317.

  65. 65.

    Esty et al. (1999), pp. 49–72.

  66. 66.

    Ibid.

  67. 67.

    IPCC WGII AR5 Summary for Policymakers 2014, p. 8.

  68. 68.

    Lee (2009), pp. 24 ff.

  69. 69.

    Yancheva et al. (2007), pp. 74–77.

  70. 70.

    German Advisory Council on Global Change (WBGU) (2008), p. 26.

  71. 71.

    Lee (2009), pp. 43–50.

  72. 72.

    German Advisory Council on Global Change (WBGU) (2008), p. 26.

  73. 73.

    Lee (2009), pp. 34–42.

  74. 74.

    International Crisis Group (2004), p. 5.

  75. 75.

    Smith and Vivekananda (2007), p. 12.

  76. 76.

    Ban Ki-Moon (2007).

  77. 77.

    Speech given by The Chairman of the Norwegian Nobel Committee Ole Danbolt Mjøs (Oslo, December 10, 2007), http://nobelpeaceprize.org/en_GB/laureates/laureates-2007/presentation-2007/.

  78. 78.

    United Nations Environment Programme (2007).

  79. 79.

    Borger (2007), http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2007/jun/23/sudan.climatechange.

  80. 80.

    Jonas (1982), pp. 70–72.

  81. 81.

    Ibid., p. 70.

  82. 82.

    Marr (2000), p. 821; Freestone and Hey (1996), p. 261.

  83. 83.

    United Nations Development Programme (2013). http://hdr.undp.org/en/media/HDR_2013_EN_complete.pdf, pp. 25 ff.

  84. 84.

    Ansorg and Donnelly (2008), p. 22.

  85. 85.

    IPCC WGI AR5 Summary for Policymakers (2013), p. 11; IPCC WGII AR5 Summary for Policymakers (2014), p. 17.

  86. 86.

    Islam and Miah (2003a, b), p. 189.

  87. 87.

    Ibid., p. 191.

  88. 88.

    Ibid., p. 190.

  89. 89.

    Ibid., p. 191.

  90. 90.

    Ibid., p. 190.

  91. 91.

    Joehnk (2006), p. 49.

  92. 92.

    Agrawala et al. (2003), p. 13.

  93. 93.

    Ibid.

  94. 94.

    Ibid., p. 14.

  95. 95.

    Bangladesh Institute for Strategic Studies, Saferworld (2009), pp. 14–15.

  96. 96.

    Podesta and Ogden (2007–2008), p. 117.

  97. 97.

    Majumdar (2007), http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSDEL206634.

  98. 98.

    Ansorg and Donnelly (2008), p. 23.

  99. 99.

    German Advisory Council on Global Change (WBGU) (2008), p. 32.

  100. 100.

    Smith and Vivekananda (2007), p. 16.

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  1. Faculty of Business and Economics, Leuphana University Lüneburg, Lüneburg, Germany

    Silke Marie Christiansen

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Christiansen, S.M. (2016). Climate Conflicts: The Pathways. In: Climate Conflicts - A Case of International Environmental and Humanitarian Law. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-27945-9_2

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