Abstract
This chapter provides a comparative picture of demographic change in China, India and Indonesia in a broader perspective and focuses on some of the major linkages and singularities across the three countries. It starts with a first section devoted to the state of demographic knowledge and sources in Asia, emphasizing the lead role played by national decennial censuses for monitoring population dynamics. The next section draws a broader picture of demographic growth in China, India and Indonesia and contrasts them with world trends. This analysis better illustrates the timing of the great demographic downturn around 1970 and points to the major difference between the three countries, and in particular to China’s unique trajectory. The third part of this chapter covers the profound mechanisms of recomposition of the population induced by change in the basic demographic parameters. This includes the age transition, changes in sex composition, educational expansion as well as population redistribution. Social and regional disaggregation is again crucial for our understanding of trends since the most urbanized parts of China, India and Indonesia tend to concentrate all features of modernity: signs of ultra-low fertility, reduced share of children, favorable dependency ratios, higher education, heavy migratory influx, and record population density. We end this chapter with a section discussing the role of policies in shaping population change in China, India and Indonesia over the last five decades.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
Similar content being viewed by others
Notes
- 1.
Unless indicated, all population estimates, parameters and forecasts used in this chapter derive from the latest set of figures released at the time of our conference by the United Nations’ Population Division (UNPD 2013). We use the medium projection set for forecasts beyond 2010. We rely on data from national statistical offices and on original census results only for disaggregated estimates not provided by the United Nations.
- 2.
The number of census personnel in India in 2011 amounted to more than 2.5 million. China for its part recruited more than six million census-takers in 2010.
- 3.
Interestingly, more detailed statistics and maps derived from the 2010 census are now being marketed by a private US company, with prices of datasets running in thousands of dollars.
- 4.
For instance, the number of persons returning round age 60 is 3.3 times higher in India than the average population aged 56–59 and 61–64 years. Such age heaping is more pronounced in rural areas, among women and in poorer regions.
- 5.
We are using United Nations estimates for least developed and more developed countries as two sets of extreme scenarios. The world average figures for most demographic indicators tend to be close to trends for India and Indonesia and they are therefore not shown here.
- 6.
These least populated regional units regions are Macau in China, Sikkim in India, and Papua Barat and Maluku Utara in Indonesia.
- 7.
The only comparable situation is found in Russia, which lost three million inhabitants during the previous decade.
- 8.
We have been unable to find a consistent set of fertility and mortality indicators at the subregional level for China, India and Indonesia for preparing similar maps of demographic differentials across Asia. This is mostly due to the paucity of quality demographic estimates for Chinese provinces.
- 9.
Dependency ratios used here are the ratio of the population aged 0–14 plus those aged 65+ to the population aged 15–64.
- 10.
We may think here of two other famous demographic initiatives: Indonesia’s long-standing transmigration policies promoting population redistribution across its islands or China’s restrictive residential regulations aimed at discouraging spontaneous migration towards urban areas.
References
Ananta, A., Arifin, E. N., Hasbullah, M. S., Handayani, N. B., & Pramono, A. (2013). Changing ethnic composition: Indonesia. 2000–2010. International population conference, Busan.
Barro, R., & Lee, J.-W. (2013). A new data set of educational attainment in the world. 1950–2010. Journal of Development Economics, 104, 184–198.
Bloom, D., Canning, D., & Sevilla, J. (2003). The demographic dividend: A new perspective on the economic consequences of population change. Santa Monica: Rand Corporation.
Bongaarts, J. (1997). The role of family planning programs in contemporary fertility transitions. In G. W. Jones, R. M. Douglass, J. C. Caldwell, & R. D’Souza (Eds.), The continuing demographic transition (pp. 422–444). Oxford: Clarendon Press.
Cai, Y. (2013). China’s new demographic reality: Learning from the 2010 census. Population and Development Review, 39(3), 371–396.
Dyson, T., Cassen, R., & Visaria, L. (2005). Twenty-first century India: Population, economy, human development, and the environment. Delhi: Oxford University Press.
Gu, B. (2014). Internal migration dominates population dynamics in China. Asian Population Studies, 10(1), 1–3.
Guilmoto, C. Z. (2012). Sex imbalances at birth: Current trends, consequences and policy implications. Bangkok: UNFPA.
Hugo, G., Hull, T. H., Hull, V. J., & Jones, G. W. (1987). The demographic dimension in Indonesian development. Singapore: Oxford University Press.
Mason, A., & Kinugasa, T. (2008). East Asian economic development: Two demographic dividends. Journal of Asian Economics, 19, 389–399.
May, J. F. (2012). World population policies: Their origin, evolution, and impact. New York: Springer.
McGee, T. G. (1991). The emergence of desakota regions in Asia: Expanding a hypothesis. In N. Ginsburg, B. Koppel, & T. G. McGee (Eds.), The extended metropolis: Settlement transition in Asia. Honolulu: University of Hawaii Press, 3–26.
Montgomery, M. R., Arends-Kuenning, M., & Mete, C. (2000). The quantity-quality transition in Asia. Population and Development Review, 26(Suppl 4), 223–256.
Pool, I. (2005). Age-structural transitions and policy: Frameworks. In S. Tuljapurkar, I. Pool, & V. Prachuabmoh (Eds.), Population, resources and development: Riding the age waves – volume 1. Dordrecht: Springer. 2006.
Pritchett, L. (1994). Desired fertility and the impact of population policies. Population and Development Review, 20(1), 1–55.
Robinson, W. C., & Ross, J. A. (Eds.). (2007). The global family planning revolution: Three decades of population policies and programs. Washington, DC: World Bank.
UNPD (United Nations Population Division). (2011). World urbanization prospects: The 2011 revision. New York: United Nations.
UNPD (United Nations Population Division). (2013). World population prospects: The 2012 revision. New York: United Nations.
Wang, F., Yong Cai, & Baochang Gu. (2013). Population, policy and politics: How will history judge China’s one-child policy? Population and Development Review, 38(Supplement), 115–129.
Zhao, Z., & Guo, F. (2007). Transition and challenge: China’s population at the beginning of the 21st century. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2016 Springer International Publishing Switzerland
About this chapter
Cite this chapter
Guilmoto, C.Z., Jones, G.W. (2016). Forty Percent of the World. In: Guilmoto, C., Jones, G. (eds) Contemporary Demographic Transformations in China, India and Indonesia. Demographic Transformation and Socio-Economic Development, vol 5. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-24783-0_1
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-24783-0_1
Published:
Publisher Name: Springer, Cham
Print ISBN: 978-3-319-24781-6
Online ISBN: 978-3-319-24783-0
eBook Packages: Social SciencesSocial Sciences (R0)