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Managing Expectations of Energy and Technology Transitions: The Role of Observation in Stability and Instability

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Intelligent Computing (SAI 2023)

Part of the book series: Lecture Notes in Networks and Systems ((LNNS,volume 711))

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Abstract

Research and policy on the topics of innovations, technological change, or sustainability often reference stability and instability in relation to shifts between states. These shifts are known as diffusions or transitions, depending on their scale, but attention is not typically paid in equal measure to both the stability and instability. The details needed to define the stable states are often missing or inadequate, reflecting either a misunderstanding of what stability is or an assumption that stability is a default state. Such misunderstandings or assumptions could have serious consequences for how any efforts to understand or manage diffusions, transitions, instability or stability. This paper begins by exploring the details needed to contextualise an observation of stability and contrasts this with the level of detail given to descriptions of stability in past research on diffusions and transitions. The paper then introduces an experiment in which an agent-based model experiences a simulated diffusion in which relative stability is closely observed before, during and after the diffusion. Observed model behaviour is significantly different than theoretical expectations, demonstrates how misunderstandings or assumptions about stability could be contributing to poor management of diffusions, transitions and other socio-technical changes. Improving the management of such changes is especially important for researchers and policy-makers relying on diffusions or transitions as a means of achieving sustainability.

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Acknowledgments

This research was made possible through funding from Greenport Duurzaam project with support from the European Regional Development Fund of the European Commission.

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  1. University of Manchester, Manchester, UK

    J. Kasmire

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  1. J. Kasmire
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Correspondence to J. Kasmire .

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  1. Faculty of Science and Engineering, Saga University, Saga, Japan

    Kohei Arai

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Kasmire, J. (2023). Managing Expectations of Energy and Technology Transitions: The Role of Observation in Stability and Instability. In: Arai, K. (eds) Intelligent Computing. SAI 2023. Lecture Notes in Networks and Systems, vol 711. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-37717-4_31

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