Abstract
By the end of the twentieth century, the realm of international relations was characterized by resource geopolitics (i.e., the potential for conflict as a result of the scarcity of vital resources across political boundaries). The idea presented by early scholars regarding the link between the environment and conflict was speculative and imprecise, hence the need for a theory that addresses this link. The hypothesis behind the environmental scarcity theory is that “resource scarcity, through the three causal forms of scarcity (i.e., demand-induced, supply-induced, and structural-induced scarcity), has the potential to cause conflict.” In the age of the Anthropocene, environmental scarcity, and therefore conflict, is increasingly coming to the fore. This chapter argues that due to population growth and degradation and depletion of the Nile, along with its uneven distribution, fierce competition over the already finite water resource increases the potential for an inter-riparian conflict in the Nile Basin. Understanding the link between the two variables—environmental scarcity (independent variable) and violence (dependent variable)—requires an analysis of the effects and nature of environmental scarcity.
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Notes
- 1.
- 2.
Water scarcity is a condition in which the annual availability of internal renewable freshwater is 1,000 cubic meters or less per person (CBM/p.p.) (Xercavins 1999: 158).
- 3.
Water stress is a condition in which the annual availability of internal renewable freshwater is less than 1,667 CBM/p.p. and greater than 1,000 CBM/p.p.; “Water scarcity is the point in which the aggregate impact of all users impinges on the supply or quality of water under prevailing institutional arrangements to the extent that the demand by all sectors, including the environment, cannot be fully satisfied. Water scarcity is a relative concept and can occur at any level of supply or demand” (UNDESA 2013; UNEP 2012: 18).
- 4.
Exchange of Notes between His Majesty’s government in the United Kingdom and the Egyptian government on the use of Waters of the Nile for irrigation.
- 5.
Agreement between the Republic of the Sudan and the United Arab Republic for full utilization of the Nile waters.
- 6.
Either verbal, political and/or violent.
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Mahlakeng, M.K., Solomon, H. (2023). Homer-Dixon’s Environmental Scarcity Theory and Potential for Conflict in the Nile River Basin (NRB). In: Solomon, H., Cocodia, J. (eds) African Security in the Anthropocene. The Anthropocene: Politik—Economics—Society—Science, vol 36. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-25151-1_3
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