Abstract
Revolutionary waves are series of close in time revolutionary events which have common causes or act as causes for each other. This paper highlights the main types of waves (ideological waves, structural waves and wave-chains, large and small waves), and enumerates the full set of revolutionary waves over five centuries (27 waves). The waves are observed first in the context of the rhythms of modernization, and second, from the point of view of internal patterns influencing the fall of regimes’ legitimacy and the dynamics of revolutionary processes. A model describing the revolutionary waves’ dynamics shows how revolutionary success in “ripe” societies with a high level of instability and weak state power initiates revolutions in less “ripe” societies. But in the latter, the failure of riots to fully dispatch the regime disappoints potential rebels and dampens the wave. The “Springtime of Nations” in 1848–1849, the Asian waves of 1940–1960, and the “Arab Spring” of 2010–2012 are considered as the most prominent examples of waves of partially or wholly unsuccessful revolutions. The correlation between internal political dynamics and geopolitical conditions is revealed: we discuss the role of military success and failure, intensification of the crisis due to external defeats, the importance of dominating a key battlefield and access to key resources, the significance of choosing effective rhetorical techniques, the ability to consolidate supporters, and the need for international support (or neutrality as minimum) as well as the level of internal solidarity within a society. In different societies and circumstances, a revolutionary wave can lead either to accelerated modernization or to regress (counter-modernization), or to contradictory results.
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Notes
- 1.
For definitions of revolution and various revolutionary events see Chapter “Introduction. Changing yet Persistent: Revolutions and Revolutionary Events” (Goldstone et al., 2022a) and Chapter “On theories and phenomenon of revolution” (Goldstone et al., 2022b) in this book. For definitions and other theoretical ideas on revolutionary waves see Chapter “Revolutionary waves of the Early Modern period. Types and phases” (Tsygankov, 2022), Chapter “On revolutionary waves since the 16th century” (Grinin, 2022a), Chapter “The European revolutions and revolutionary waves of the 19th century: their causes and consequences” (Grinin, 2022b), Chapter “Revolutionary waves and lines of the 20th century” (Grinin & Grinin, 2022), and Chapter “Introduction. Changing yet Persistent: Revolutions and Revolutionary Events” (Goldstone et al., 2022a, in this volume).
- 2.
See also Chapter “On revolutionary situations, stages of revolution, and some other aspects of the theory of revolution” (Grinin, 2022c, in this book).
- 3.
See Chapter “The ‘color’ revolutions. Successes and limitations of non-violent protest” (Mitchell, 2022), Chapter “The Bulldozer Revolution in Serbia” (Khodunov, 2022a), Chapter “Serbian ‘Otpor’ and the color revolutions’ diffusion” (Filin, 2022), Chapter “The Rose Revolution in Georgia” (Khodunov, 2022c), Chapter “The Orange Revolution in Ukraine” (Khodunov, 2022b), Chapter “Color revolutions in Kyrgyzstan” (Ivanov, 2022), Chapter “‘Moldovan Spring’ 2009. The atypical ‘revolution’ of April 7 and the days that followed” (Tkachuk et al., 2022), and Chapter “The Green Movement in Iran: 2009–2010” (Filin, 2022, in this volume).
- 4.
See Chapter “The Arab Spring: causes, conditions, and driving forces” (Grinin & Korotayev, 2022b), Chapter “The Jasmine Revolution in Tunisia and the Birth of the Arab Spring Uprisings” (Kuznetsov, 2022), Chapter “Egypt’s 2011 revolution. A demographic structural analysis” (Korotayev & Zinkina, 2022), Chapter “The Arab Spring in Yemen” (Issaev et al., 2022), Chapter “The Syrian Revolution” (Akhmedov, 2022), Chapter “Revolution in Libya” (Barmin, 2022), and Chapter “The Arab Spring. A quantitative analysis” (Korotayev et al., 2022, in this volume).
- 5.
About the examples of export of revolutions see Chapter “On revolutionary waves since the 16th century” (Grinin, 2022a) and Chapter “Revolutionary waves and lines of the 20th century” (Grinin & Grinin, 2022, in this volume).
- 6.
Nader Sohrabi (1995) names this wave as “Constitutional Revolutions” in Turkey, Iran and Russia. Jack Goldstone adds the 1911 Republican Revolution in China and formulates their general pattern: all were propelled by modernizers who shared the ideology that catching up with Western Powers required overturning traditional imperial dynasties and creating constitutional republics (personal communication). In fact, these revolutions included both anticapitalist, socialist (“red”) components and pro-Western, modernist, democratic ones.
- 7.
See also Chapter “Revolutionary waves of the Early Modern period. Types and phases” (Tsygankov, 2022, in this volume).
- 8.
For another full list of revolutionary waves since, the sixteenth century see Chapter “On revolutionary waves since the 16th century” (Grinin, 2022a, in this book).
- 9.
See also Chapter “All Around the World: Revolutionary Potential in the Age of Authoritarian Revanchism” (Selbin, 2022) in this volume about the role of sharp feelings of social justice’s lack for the emergence of revolutions.
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Rozov, N.S. (2022). Typology and Principles of Dynamics of Revolutionary Waves in World History. In: Goldstone, J.A., Grinin, L., Korotayev, A. (eds) Handbook of Revolutions in the 21st Century. Societies and Political Orders in Transition. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-86468-2_9
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