Abstract
In this chapter Leonid Grinin considers the role of revolutions within long-term historical process and the World System as well as analyzes the changing importance of revolutions from ancient times up to the present. It is shown why the nature of revolutions has changed and their significance has sharply increased since the beginning of the sixteenth century, i.e., with the beginning of the Early Modern Period and the Industrial Revolution. It is also shown how at first the role of revolutions increased in the historical process and in globalization, the latter being one of the main components of historical process. Then the author explains how and why the role of revolutions as the most important driving force of the historical process and progress began to decline against the background of the increasing role of more legitimate and less costly forms of societal transformation. The current and increasing role of revolutions and their application as a geopolitical weapon and as a tool contributing to the World System’s dramatic change are also examined. Grinin shows that there is a strong correlation between the development of technologies, globalization, and the role of revolutions in historical process. While considering these aspects the author also addresses some points related to the theory of revolution. This chapter also offers some forecasts regarding the future role of revolutions in the development of societies and the World System in general.
This chapter is an output of a research project implemented as part of the Basic Research Program at the HSE University in 2022 with support by the Russian Science Foundation (Project No. 18-18-00254).
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Notes
- 1.
About an unstable equilibrium resulting from a number of serious challenges in a society see Chapter “The phenomenon and Theories of Revolutions” (Goldstone et al., 2022a, in this volume) and Goldstone (2014). Many researchers also analyzed societies as systems whose adequate functioning depended on the maintained equilibrium of interchange of matter, energy and information between the system and its environment, as well as between subsystems constituting a system. Within this approach, researchers not without reason argued that any critical disturbance destroying this equilibrium leads a society to a state of imbalance (Hagopian, 1974) or dysfunction (Johnson, 1968), which brings a serious risk of revolutionary destabilization. Besides, within this approach there were proposed a number of ‘candidates’ that can become the forces leading social systems to dysfunction/destabilization, for example: an uneven impact of technological growth and modernization processes on the needs of different subsystems in resources and on their actual supply with these resources, changes in distribution of power between the elites of different subsystems (Jessop, 1972), violent changes in value systems resulting from the emergence of new religions or ideologies (Johnson, 1968; see Chapter “Revolution and Modernization Traps” [Grinin, 2022c, in this book]) or just asynchrony of the changes in different subsystems (Hagopian, 1974).
- 2.
- 3.
Chapter “The Phenomenon and Theories of Revolutions” (Goldstone et al., 2022a, in this volume) offers an explanation about all the four ways described above. However, the first two are shown in detail, whereas the third and fourth are only described very briefly.
- 4.
For example, the reforms conducted in the twenty-fourth century B.C. by Uruinimgina who was probably elected the ruler of Lagash after the popular uprising (Dyakonov, 1951, 1983: 207–274, 2000: 55–56); or the Muhammad revolution in the early seventh century Arabia (Korotayev et al., 1999); about similar uprisings and establishment of peculiar forms of government see also Shtyrbul (2006).
- 5.
Among the Chinese popular uprisings the Taiping Rebellion of 1850–1864 is the closest to revolution (see, e.g., Ilyushechkin, 1967).
- 6.
Of course, we can denote it as a progressive development only in the final account (since revolutions proved to be a rather costly way of development and sometimes would temporarily throw society back). Moreover, we denote them in such a way also referring to the period before the end of nineteenth century (see below).
- 7.
However, as we will see below, in the twentieth century due to the changing historical role of revolutions, the latter could bring a society to a non-mainstream path of development. Such paths were communism and fascism; the religious revolution in Iran can also be mentioned here (see about Chapter “Revolutionary Waves and Lines of the Twentieth Century” [Grinin & Grinin, 2022, in this monograph]).
- 8.
The concept of modernization covers a wide range of subjects and its exact definition is disputable (Black, 1966; Rostow, 1971; Przeworski & Limongi, 1997; Poberezhnikov, 2006; Travin & Margania, 2004; Grinin, 2012c). About the connection between revolution and modernization see, e.g., (Huntington, 1968, 1986; Tilly, 1986; Hobsbawm, 1996; Boix, 2011); see Chapter “Revolution and Modernization Traps” [Grinin, 2022c, in this volume]; see also Grinin (2013, 2017a, 2018a, 2018b, 2019b).
- 9.
Note that the third-generation revolutionary theorists (following Goldstone’s terminology [2001, 2014]) started to pay great attention to the impact of external factors (especially wars) as triggers of revolutionary destabilization. Meanwhile, the fourth-generation revolutionary theorists put particular emphasis on the long-term impact of external factors (such as shifts in international relations or diffusion of revolutionary ideas; for details see Chapter “The Phenomenon and Theories of Revolutions” [Goldstone et al., 2022a, in this volume]).
- 10.
We do not consider here the 19th-century revolutions in Latin America. But still we should note that since it was the world-system periphery, the revolutions did not and could not lead to any stable progressive outcome there.
- 11.
For example, in the USA industrialization with a high level of machines proceeded until the mid-19th century and mostly relied not on the steam engine but on water power which was abundant in North America (see Grinin, 2007; Grinin & Grinin, 2015a; Grinin & Korotayev, 2015). It is worth mentioning that the Meiji revolution in Japan in 1868 in some sense opened a new way for Asian countries.
- 12.
This conviction started to widely spread after the French Revolution. Starting from the second half of the nineteenth century it became a dominant idea in social philosophy especially after the spread of Herbert Spencer’s evolutionary ideas (Spencer, 2000 [1862], 1872). In the twentieth century this almost became a postulate in academic social studies (e.g., Le Bon, 1913, Adams, 1913; Sorokin, 1925; Edwards, 1927; Pettee, 1938; Brinton, 1965 [1938]; Brogan, 1952: 96; Carr, 1955: 710; Wolfe, 1965: 7; Berger & Neuhaus, 1970: 53; ; Boulding, 1953: xiv; Ellul, 1971: 39, 43; Dunn, 1989).
- 13.
In order to accomplish the goals set by a revolution there is often needed not one but two or more revolutions and often a whole revolutionary epoch during which both the goals and the society’s mindset are modified. About revolutionary epochs see Chapter “Introduction. Changing yet Persistent: Revolutions and Revolutionary Events” (Goldstone et al., 2022c) and Chapter “Revolutionary Waves and Lines of the Twentieth Century” (Grinin & Grinin, 2022, in this book).
- 14.
This happened in many ways due to the fact that this was hardly the first revolution in this country and besides, they had a certain experience of democracy.
- 15.
For example, as it was in the USSR where mass repressions had continued to the 1920s and 1930s.
- 16.
However, it is undisputed that the most successful economic development of recent decades has been achieved by a country undeniably affected by a Communist Revolution. The People’s Republic of China was able to combine the advantages of socialist state economic planning and of the capitalist free markets and competition.
- 17.
E.g., Chapter “The Bulldozer Revolution in Serbia” (Khodunov, 2022a), Chapter “The Rose Revolution in Georgia” (Khodunov, 2022c), Chapter “The Orange Revolution in Ukraine” (Khodunov, 2022b), Chapter “Color Revolutions in Kyrgyzstan” (Ivanov, 2022), Chapter “Egypt’s 2011 Revolution. A Demographic Structural Analysis” (Korotayev & Zinkina, 2022), Chapter “The Arab Spring in Yemen” (Issaev et al., 2022), Chapter “The Syrian Revolution” (Akhmedov, 2022), Chapter “Revolution in Libya” (Barmin, 2022), or Chapter “Euromaidan Revolution in Ukraine” (Shevsky, 2022, in this volume).
- 18.
- 19.
It is worth mentioning another example of the connection between globalization and revolutions. The revolutionizing influence of the Great French revolution in 1791–1804 on the Caribbean societies including Haiti (see Chapter “On Revolutionary Waves Since the Sixteenth Century” (Grinin, 2022b, in this volume)) helped in some respect to rise of the revolutionary wave of 1808–1826.
- 20.
Except for such revolutions as the plebian movements in ancient Rome.
- 21.
Of most importance was the Muhammad revolution in the early seventh century CE.
- 22.
See Chapter “Revolutions of the Twenty-First Century as a Factor in the World System Reconfiguration” (Grinin, 2022e, in this volume).
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Grinin, L. (2022). Revolutions and Historical Process. In: Goldstone, J.A., Grinin, L., Korotayev, A. (eds) Handbook of Revolutions in the 21st Century. Societies and Political Orders in Transition. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-86468-2_5
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