Abstract
Grinin and Korotayev in this chapter study the issue of democratization of countries within the context of revolutions and globalization. They point to the unreasonably high economic and social costs of a rapid transition to democracy as a result of revolutions or of similar large-scale events for those countries unprepared for it. It happened often enough that revolutions were more likely to hamper than promote democracy and economic growth. The authors believe that in a number of cases the authoritarian regimes turn out to be more effective in economic and social terms in comparison with emerging democracies especially of the revolutionary type, which are often incapable of insuring social order and may have a swing to authoritarianism. Effective authoritarian regimes can also be a suitable form of a transition to efficient and stable democracy. This chapter investigates various correlations between revolutionary events and possibilities of establishing democracy in a society on the basis of historical and contemporary examples. The authors demonstrate that one should take into account a country's degree of sociopolitical and cultural preparedness for democratic institutions. In case of a favorable background (including high levels of economic development, education, urbanization, and so on), revolutions can proceed smoothly, as “velvet revolutions” with efficient outcomes. On the contrary, democracy is established with much difficulty, throwbacks, return to authoritarianism, and with outbreaks of violence and military takeovers in countries with low levels of education and urbanization, pronounced youth bulges, low levels of economic development, with low female status, with widespread religious fundamental ideology, where a substantial part of the population hardly ever hears of democracy while the liberal intellectuals idealize this form, and where the opposing parties are not willing to respect the rules of the democratic game when defeated in elections. There is clearly a cluster of variables, that move mostly together and create characteristic patterns of revolutionary action and outcomes.
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Notes
- 1.
See Chapter “Revolutions of the Twenty-First Century as a Factor in the World System Reconfiguration” (Grinin, 2022f), Chapter “Global Inequality and World Revolutions: Past, Present and Future” (Chase-Dunn & Nagy, 2022), and Chapter “Conclusion. How Many Revolutions Will We See in the Twenty-First Century?” (Goldstone et al., 2022b) in the present book.
- 2.
The fact that Ukrainians did not wait a year before the elections to legitimately change the president, suggests that citizens did not have an idea of legitimacy and the right order.
- 3.
See Chapter “The Arab Spring: Causes, Conditions, and Driving Forces” (Grinin & Korotayev, 2022a), Chapter “Egypt’s 2011 Revolution. A Demographic Structural Analysis” (Korotayev & Zinkina, 2022), Chapter “The Arab Spring in Yemen” (Issaev et al., 2022), Chapter “The Syrian Revolution” (Akhmedov, 2022), Chapter “Revolution in Libya” (Barmin, 2022), and Chapter “The Arab Spring. A Quantitative Analysis” (Korotayev et al., 2022) in this book; see also Grinin et al., 2019.
- 4.
Even the UN Report stated that there is no direct relationship between democracy and economic growth (UNDP, 2002). It is also noted that the total effect of democracy on the economic growth can be characterized as weakly negative (see Barro, 1996). In addition, in Chapter “The Phenomenon and Theories of Revolution” (Goldstone et al., 2022b, in this volume) we note that studies of the third and fourth generation of the modern revolutionary theories show that revolutions are more likely to hamper than promote democracy and economic growth (Eckstein, 1982, 1986; Gurr, 1988; Zimmermann, 1990; Haggard & Kaufman, 1995; Weede & Muller, 1997: see also Grinin, 2021a, 2012b, 2013, 2017a, 2017b; Ginin & Korotayev, 2014, 2016).
- 5.
See also Eckstein (1982, 1986), Zimmermann (1990), Haggard and Kaufman (1995), Weede and Muller (1997), Mau and Starodubrovskaia (2001), Grinin (2012a, 2013, 2018a, 2018b, 2019b), as well as Chapter “Revolutions and modernization traps” (Grinin, 2022a), Chapter “Revolutionary Waves and Lines of the Twentieth Century” (Grinin & Grinin, 2022), Chapter “Revolutions and Historical Process” (Grinin, 2022d), Chapter “Evolution and Typology of Revolutions” (Grinin, 2022e), and Chapter “Revolutions of the Twenty-First Century as a Factor in the World System Reconfiguration” (Grinin, 2022f) in this book.
- 6.
- 7.
In addition, scholars also tend to characterize as such some other revolutions in Eastern Europe in the late 1980s and the early 1990s, the 1986 Revolution in the Philippines, as well as the revolutionary reforms in South Africa in the early 1990s (about 1986 Revolution in the Philippines, the revolution analogue in South Africa in the early 1990s, and velvet revolutions in Eastern European nations in 1989–1991, including Czechoslovakia in 1989 see Chapter “Revolutionary Waves and Lines of the Twentieth Century” [Grinin & Grinin, 2022, in this book]). For example, Jack A. Goldstone gives the following comment in reference to Gurr: “Until very recently, revolutions have invariably failed to produce democracy. The need to consolidate a new regime in the face of struggles with domestic and foreign foes has instead produced authoritarian regimes, often in the guise of populist dictatorships such as those of Napoleon, Castro, and Mao, or of one party states such as the PRI state in Mexico or the Communist Party-led states of the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe. Indeed, the struggle required to take and hold power in revolutions generally leaves its mark in the militarized and coercive character of new revolutionary regimes (Gurr, 1988). It is therefore striking that in several recent revolutions—in the Philippines in 1986, in South Africa in 1990, in Eastern European nations in 1989–1991—the sudden collapse of the old regime has led directly to new democracies, often against strong expectations of reversion to dictatorship” (Goldstone, 2001: 168; see also Foran & Goodwin, 1993; Weitman, 1992; Pastor, 2001). However, Gurr’s idea that revolutions tend to fail to produce consolidated democracy is being confirmed in most revolutions of the twenty-first century.
- 8.
The structural-demographic factors regularly generating social explosions in the modernization process are thoroughly investigated in our earlier publications (see, e.g., Goldstone, 1991, 2002, 2010, 2017; Korotayev et al., 2006; Korotayev & Khaltourina, 2006; Turchin & Korotayev, 2006, 2020; Korotayev & Zinkina, 2011a, 2011b, 2011c, 2014; Korotayev et al., 2011a, 2011b, 2011c; Korotayev et al., 2012; Grinin, 2010, 2011, 2012a, 2012b; Grinin & Korotayev, 2012a, 2012b; Korotayev et al., 2013; Korotayev et al., 2013a, 2013b, 2014a, 2014b, 2015a, 2015b, 2015c; Malkov et al., 2013; Korotayev, 2014; Zinkina & Korotayev, 2014a, 2014b; Korotayev et al., 2014a, 2014b; Ortmans et al., 2017; Korotayev et al., 2020, 2021c, Sawyer & Korotayev, 2021; Romanov et al., 2021); hence, we will not describe them here in detail.
- 9.
- 10.
It is worthwhile to mention that after the French revolution there emerged the term Thermidor, which later was used to denote the phase in some revolutions when the political pendulum swings back, the revolutionary radicalism steps back and a less radical revolutionary regime is established which gradually reduces the revolutionary excesses [for more detail see Chapter “On Revolutionary Situations, Stages of Revolution, and Some Other Aspects of the Theory of Revolution” (Grinin, 2022b, in this volume); see also Grinin, 2017a, 2017b]. So, the Berdayev’s Law can also be named the revolutionary phase of Thermidorian Reaction or we can use a political term widely used by Russian political scientists—the Thermidor Law. In fact, Crane Brinton talked about Universality of Thermidorian Reaction (1965: 205–207).
- 11.
See Chapter “Introduction. Changing Yet Persistent: Revolutions and Revolutionary Events” (Goldstone et al., 2022a) and Chapter “The Phenomenon and Theories of Revolution” (Goldstone et al., 2022с) in this book.
- 12.
See also Chenoweth & Ulfelder (2017: 316).
- 13.
Note that another factor making a democratic outcome of revolutions significantly more likely has been identified by a number of studies as a high proportion of neighboring states that are democracies (the so called “democratic neighborhood” factor) (Celestino & Gleditsch 2013: 393; Bayer et al., 2016: 766).
- 14.
- 15.
See Chapter “The Arab Spring in Yemen” (Issaev et al., 2022), Chapter “The Syrian Revolution” (Akhmedov, 2022), and Chapter “Revolution in Libya” (Barmin, 2022) in this book; see also Issaev et al., (2018), Grinin et al. (2019), Korotayev et al. (2021b).
- 16.
About the falling of such countries into the revolutionary traps see Chapter “Conclusion. How Many Revolutions Will We See in the Twenty-First Century?” (Goldstone et al. ,2022b) and Chapter “Revolutions of the Twenty-First Century as a Factor in the World System Reconfiguration” (Grinin, 2022f) in this book.
- 17.
Both in a particular country and in the world in general. It may seem paradoxical but in 1990, democratic regimes were established in approximately 45.4 per cent of independent countries of the world, that is almost the same rate as it was seventy years earlier in 1922 (Huntington, 1993). On some factors affecting the genesis of democratic institutions see also, e.g., Korotayev and Bondarenko (2000), Bondarenko and Korotayev (2000), Korotayev (2003a; 2003b), Korotayev and Cardinale (2003).
- 18.
This means that one should first achieve the cultural-humanitarian level allowing a true democratic transformation, namely, there should be present an intellectual stratum, a certain level of borrowings from the world culture, and certain political forms. But to establish democracy an even higher cultural-humanitarian level is needed as well as a dramatic change in social and economic situation (see, e.g., Inglehart & Welzel, 2005). Besides, democracy is not just an idea but a mode of life; and to take root it should become a really important part of everyday life. But since in newly democratic states the idea of democracy is quickly discredited, it fails to become a constituent of everyday life. Here we observe a vicious circle which can be broken only after several attempts and under certain social and economic conditions.
- 19.
In December, 1848 Louis Bonaparte, the nephew of Napoleon I, was elected the President of the French Republic, which was formed as a result of the February revolution of 1848. He was elected by the French peasants, while the Parisians responsible for the revolution were against him. His further career is extremely interesting in terms of the relationship between revolution and democracy. On the one hand, he betrayed the Republic, having made a military coup on December 2, 1851. A year later he became the Emperor Napoleon III, which, as one can see, was quite logical and typical for the life cycle of revolution. But on the other hand, he also applied democratic methods. Thus, the extension of his mandate for ten years was approved by the referendum on December 21, 1851 (it took place three weeks after the coup). Later, the transformation of the presidency into monarchy was approved by the referendum on November 21, 1852. In both referenda Louis Bonaparte’s actions were approved by an overwhelming majority of votes. Thus, one can see a contradiction between the liberal French capital, aspiring to a liberal and democratic republic and a conservative French village that yearned for a strong imperial hand. If the revolution had introduced limited suffrage, the urban residents could have won; meanwhile, universal suffrage gave the advantage to the conservatives. The same dilemma between universal democracy and the strife for a higher-level democracy exists in Muslim countries, where secular forces are consistently a minority (for more detail see Grinin, 2019a, 2020a, 2020b; Grinin et al., 2019). The same refers to a number of countries with an authoritarian regime outside the Islamic world.
- 20.
One can also recall that during the elections to the Russian Constituent Assembly the principal Russian liberal party (the Constitutional Democrats) whose main objective was just to establish a system of universal, direct, equal, and secret polls, during the first Russian truly universal, direct, equal, and secret poll only got a tiny minority of votes, whereas the majority of votes were won by the peasant-oriented party of “Socialist Revolutionaries” (however, as is well known, this did not prevent the political power in Russia from being grabbed by a third political party that also got a minority of votes—the Bolsheviks).
- 21.
For example, in Athens since Solon’s times there operated a law that claimed that when the city was torn by civil strife everyone who refused to join one of the warring sides and place his arms at the disposal of either side would be deprived of civil rights (see Aristotle 8.5; Kautsky, 1931: 334–335). The situation of civil strife was called stasis (for details about it see Finley, 1984a, 1984b; van der Vliet, 2005; Berent, 1998). About the peculiarities of ancient democracies, the overthrows of power and civil strife in them see also Grinin (2004a, 2004b).
- 22.
The voting abstention in both full and partial democracies (even when the mass voter turnout could be decisive) is quite a typical example. Moreover, a large number of voters (especially among the young) almost simultaneously with the right of voting get a steady diet of ideological skepticism. Why voting? What is the use of it? Nothing will ever change. My vote means nothing. On the other hand, there is some truth in this skepticism. The other part of the population is accustomed to voting (“they say we should, then we will vote”), but also not for the sake of reasonable voting. In any case, it is beyond question that the skepticism of one part of population and the promptness of the other part have been to the advantage of the party in power. This example explains how political apathy may in a democratic way support certain forces in power. Karl Kautski called such masses involved in voting “the political flock of sheep”.
- 23.
See, e.g., Chapter “The ‘Color’ Revolutions. Successes and Limitations of Non-violent Protest” (Mitchell, 2022), Chapter “The Bulldozer Revolution in Serbia” (Khodunov, 2022a), Chapter “The Orange Revolution in Ukraine” (Khodunov, 2022b), or Chapter “‘Moldovan Spring’ 2009: The Atypical ‘Revolution’ of April 7 and the Days that Followed” (Tkachuk et al., 2022) in this book.
- 24.
Revolution (as any kind of politics) is hardly a fair contest, in this or that way one uses provocations, disinformation, deceit, and backstage dealings. The provocations often imply stirring up enmity towards government and opponents through direct or indirect murders—shooting from within crowd or something of this kind, which provokes the escalation of violence, formation of militias etc.—with respect to the revolutions of 1848 and some other revolutionary events see Nefedov (2008); recent examples can be found in Brazil or Ukraine [see Chapter “Euromaidan Revolution in Ukraine” (Shevsky, 2022, in this volume)]. Thus, violence and other rather dangerous means become normal. Consequently, the violation of democracy is not considered as something terrible.
- 25.
The elections in such Caucasian territories as Karachay Cherkessia (in 1999) and South Ossetia (in 2011), when the opponents renounce the win of the other party and thus trigger an acute political crisis, are very illustrative examples. This seemed as anecdotal evidence in an exotic region, however it almost repeated in the old and stable democracy—the USA—in 2020–2021.
- 26.
The trial of the former rulers is one of the common revolutionary rituals. In Egypt before Morsi’s disposition, the trial of the President Hosni Mubarak and his sons Ala'a and Gamal and a number of former top police officials was held. Even after the June 30 Revolution and July 3 coup of 2013 (e.g., Korotayev et al., 2016) the trial would continue and only in March 2017 the former President returned home. After the take-over, the former President Morsi became the accused and after numerous sentences, appellations and retrials he was given a long prison term; he eventually died in prison. It is interesting that he was even accused of the escape from prison during the mass turmoil in 2011, that is, during revolutionary events. It is worth noting that the military regime surpassed all the previous regimes in Egypt in the number of death sentences.
- 27.
The “reaction”/”counterrevolution” is usually considered to be a definitely negative phenomenon (while revolution is associated, though not so unambiguously, with something positive—among other things because it is supposed to lead to democracy). But such an interpretation is not always reasonable. The reaction often plays a rather positive role preventing the aggravation of revolutionary upheavals and thus establishing more balanced and viable political institutions. Sometimes positive aspects of the political reaction are more pronounced, than the negative ones. For example, the Thermidorian reaction of 1794 can be considered as an attempt by French political leaders to mitigate the rampages of the Jacobin Terror, which caused a fierce civil war in many provinces and to form a new more viable social and political system. One can also point to a positive component in the Bonapartist reaction to the French revolution of 1848 (about the Thermidor phase in revolutions, see Chapter On Revolutionary Situations, Stages of Revolution, and Some Other Aspects of the Theory of Revolution [Grinin, 2022b] in this book).
- 28.
See Chapter “The Rose Revolution in Georgia” (Khodunov, 2022c), Chapter “The Armenian Revolution of 2018: A Historical-Sociological Interpretation” (Derluguian & Hovhannisyan, 2022), and Chapter “Revolutions in Kyrgyzstan” (Ivanov, 2022) in this book.
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Acknowledgement
This chapter is an output of a research project implemented as part of the Basic Research Program at HSE University in 2022 with support by the Russian Science Foundation (Project No. 18-18-00254).
The parts of this chapter have been published previously in the Central European Journal of International and Security Studies (Grinin & Korotayev, 2016).
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Grinin, L., Korotayev, A. (2022). Revolutions, Counterrevolutions, and Democracy. In: Goldstone, J.A., Grinin, L., Korotayev, A. (eds) Handbook of Revolutions in the 21st Century. Societies and Political Orders in Transition. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-86468-2_4
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