Abstract
Leonid Grinin analyzes several theoretical aspects of important revolutionary phenomena. In particular, he analyzes some of the ways in which international relations and the World System as a whole can influence the emergence of a revolution and its outcome and vice versa—how revolutions and their waves can affect the World System and the balance of power within the world order. The author also examines the ways in which revolutions can affect the current international role of revolutions, and their use as a geopolitical weapon. It is very important since, according to George Lawson, there is something amiss with how revolutionary theory approaches the international. The chapter also considers the concept of “revolutionary situation” and proposes its clarification and the introduction of new precise concepts. A special section is dedicated to “great revolutions”. It shows the differences between them and ordinary revolutions. The following section concerns the problem of the stages of revolution and the details of the revolutionary cycle, including the so-called Thermidor phase. The last section is devoted to analyzing elite behavior in those situations when, supporting the revolution, certain elites lose their sense of self-preservation in the pre-revolutionary period and in the beginning of a revolution.
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Notes
- 1.
When attempting to treat revolutions only as a sociological phenomenon as well as to create a non-temporal theory of revolutions one can encounter difficulties with defining common features: the early revolutions may lack certain later common features due to the fact that there was not enough experience and material prerequisites for them, while the subsequent revolutions appear different since a number of social problems had been already solved, and some revolutionary incidents were already disapproved so the revolutionaries could avoid them. The support base of revolutions and many other characteristics also changed (the neglect of these methodological approaches and related drawbacks could be found, e.g., in Eduard Shults’s Theory of Revolution (2016) which in other respects is quite an informative book).
- 2.
In particular, revolutions can be considered as a result of rapid and abrupt changes, including sharp demographic changes with increasing share of young people in the population (see Chapter “Revolution and Modernization Traps” [Grinin, 2022c]; see also Goldstone 1991; Grinin, 2012d).
- 3.
It is generally accepted that the military defeat or even overstretch of the forces of society in war often becomes the starting point for mass discontent and revolution. But we do not consider this aspect in this chapter (but see Chapters “The Phenomenon and Theories of Revolutions” [Goldstone et al., 2022c] and “Revolutionary Waves and Lines of the Twentieth Century” [Grinin and Grinin 2022, in this volume]).
- 4.
See about its influence Chapter “On Revolutionary Waves Since the Sixteenth Century” (Grinin, 2022b, in this volume).
- 5.
About the revolutionary waves and their influence on the World System see Chapter “Introduction. Changing Yet Persistent: Revolutions and Revolutionary Events” (Goldstone et al., 2022b), Chapter “Typology and Principles of Dynamics of Revolutionary Waves in World History” (Rozov, 2022), Chapter “Revolutionary Waves of the Early Modern period. Types and Phases” (Tsygankov, 2022), Chapter “The European Revolutions and Revolutionary Waves of the Nineteenth Century: Their Causes and Consequences” (Grinin, 2022f), “Revolutionary Waves and Lines of the Twentieth Century” (Grinin & Grinin, 2022), Chapter “On Revolutionary Waves Since the Sixteenth Century” (Grinin, 2022b), Chapter “The Arab Spring: Causes, Conditions, and Driving Forces” (Grinin & Korotayev 2022b), Chapter “Revolutions of the Twenty-First Century as a Factor in the World System Reconfiguration” (Grinin, 2022e), and Chapter “Conclusion. How Many Revolutions Will We See in the Twenty-First Century?” (Goldstone et al , 2022a) in this volume.
- 6.
For more details on the third effect see Chapter “Revolutionary Waves and Lines of the Twentieth Century” (Grinin & Grinin, 2022) and Chapter “On Revolutionary Waves Since the Sixteenth Century” (Grinin, 2022b, in this volume).
- 7.
The Color Revolutions produced chronic instability, as their democratic advances were followed by backsliding to illiberal and corrupt regimes, which led to further protests and political upheavals (see Chapter “The ‘Color’ Revolutions. Successes and Limitations of Non-violent Protest” [Mitchell, 2022, in this volume]).
- 8.
Some researchers speak about a great number of revolutionary situations in the Modern Period. Thus, Tilly alone counted 707 revolutionary situations in Europe for a period of about five hundred years, from 1492 till 1991 (Tilly, 1996: 243).
- 9.
See also Tilly (1978), Skocpol (1979), Kileff and Robinson (1986), Arjomand (1988), Higley and Burton (1989), Wickham-Crowley (1989), Bunce (1989), Paige (1989), Goldstone (1991), Goldstone et al., (1991), Bearman (1993), Haggard and Kaufman (1995), DeFronzo (1996), Hough (1997), Lachmann (1997), Dogan and Higley (1998), Snyder (1998), Parsa (2000).
- 10.
- 11.
- 12.
As Jack A. Goldstone notes, ‘Revolutions do not arise simply from mounting discontent over poverty, inequality, or other changes. Rather, revolution is a complex process that emerges from the social order becoming frayed in many areas at once’ (Goldstone, 2014: 15). One can both agree and disagree with this. It is true that revolution is a very complicated process that happens due to the crises of social systems, but, firstly, one can hardly agree that the system always has to decay in many spheres at once. For example, the political regime or economy may be prosperous, but discontent with its evils, the weakness of the government, its mistakes, ‘lack of talent’, etc., may provoke violent protests.
- 13.
Additionally, if the government that lost its authority shows weakness or compliance at the wrong time, this leads to increasing demands on the part of its opposition.
- 14.
She was the head of power in Petrograd at this moment since Nicholas II was in the Russian Supreme High Command General Headquarters.
- 15.
As we already mentioned in Chapter “The Phenomenon and Theories of Revolutions” (Goldstone et al., 2022c, in this volume), there are two types of revolutions according to the starting point and further spreading of revolutionary events (a central collapse or an advance from the periphery [Goldstone, 2014; Huntington, 1968]).
- 16.
It is not surprising that fundamental social changes during the great revolutions lead to a very intense social struggle. Therefore, one can hardly disagree with the idea of Armitage (2015) which is expressed in his article’s title “Every Great Revolution is a Civil War.”.
- 17.
Prior to that time the republics existed only in small states.
- 18.
In this respect it is interesting to note that great revolutions or something that substituted them occurred with the interval of about half a century after the beginning of the Great French Revolution. In 1848−1849 the European revolutions occurred, and then in 1905 a revolutionary epoch emerged in Russia. The revolution of 1949 succeeded in China but in fact it continued for twenty years.
- 19.
The regular character of revolutionary stages was pointed out by François-Auguste Mignet, Thomas Carlyle, Wilhelm Josef Blos and others (Blos, 1906; Carlyle, 1903 [1837]; Mignet, 1824). When comparing the English and the French revolutions, Joseph-Marie de Maistre predicted restoration of monarchy after the French revolutions (Maistre, 1841 [1796]).
- 20.
- 21.
However, both during this period and later, there may be attempts to carry out even more radical transformations, but they usually do not receive support or end in failure. With respect to the English Revolution, there was the radical egalitarian movement of the ‘Levellers.’ With respect to the French Revolution we should mention the so-called ‘The Enrage’ and Gracchus Babeuf’s ‘Conspiracy of Equals’ (1796), whose participants set a goal to equalize property. In Soviet Russia on the eve of the introduction of NEP there were many hotheads who wanted to march to Europe in order to approach the coming of the world revolution.
- 22.
As is known on 9 Thermidor, according to the French Republican Calendar (27/28 July) 1794 there took place a coup that ended the Jacobean dictatorship. Maximilien Robespierre, Louis Antoine de Saint-Just, Georges Couthon and other revolutionaries were executed, whereas Joseph Fouché and Paul Barras and others, who united the opponents of Robespierre, came to power.
- 23.
For example, Hobsbawm (1996) speaks about the phase of split among moderate revolutionaries drifting towards the camp of order and counterrevolution.
- 24.
‘Every revolutionary period inevitably splits into two interrelated stages. “Reaction” is not a phenomenon beyond revolution but its immanent part—the second stage’ (Sorokin, 1992a: 268; 1925: 7). According to Berdyaev, ‘Every revolution ends in reaction. It is inevitable, it is a law’ (Berdyaev, 1990 [1923]: 29). About Berdyaev’s law see Chapter “Revolutions, Counterrevolutions, and Democracy” (Grinin & Korotayev, 2022a, in this volume); also Grinin and Korotayev (2014, 2016b, 2016c). Huntington reduces to the first two large stages of revolution, probably, because he delineates the Western and the Eastern types of revolutions, noting that the Western revolutions have a more evident sequence of stages compared to the Eastern revolutions (Huntington, 1968).
- 25.
Its predecessor, the collection Vekhi [Landmarks] will be described below.
- 26.
However, Trotsky himself did not claim to be the first and pointed out in one of his anti-Stalinist articles that it is not easy to determine who was the first to appeal to historical analogy with the Thermidor. Already in 1926, the members of a group who valued ‘democratic centralism’ claimed, ‘The Thermidor is an accomplished fact!’ (Trotsky, 1935).
- 27.
Yet, there were some efforts in this direction, since Oliver Cromwell assigned his son Richard as his successor in the office of Lord Protector.
- 28.
The renewal of the mandate for ten years was enshrined by the referendum on December 21, 1851; the transformation of the presidency into a monarchy—by the referendum on November 21, 1852. The actions of Louis Bonaparte were approved by an overwhelming majority of votes in both referenda. For more details about the referenda of Napoleon III see Chapter “Revolutions, Counterrevolutions, and Democracy” [Grinin & Korotayev, 2022a, in this volume].
- 29.
In particular, Veblen (1973 [1899]) argued that sometimes a leisure class may lose the instinct for self-preservation. For example, that was the case with the Romans during the barbarian invasions in the late Roman Empire. Yet, in a book analysing sociological theories the authors tried to correct Veblen arguing that the leisure class loses not the sense for self-preservation but the ability of self-defence, that is, that the Romans probably forgot how to protect themselves, that is forgot how to do it since the barbarians had replaced them everywhere (Adams & Sydie, 2002: 253).
- 30.
Perhaps in February 1917 the Russian supreme generalship supported the czar's demise, having a strange belief that the beginning of the revolution would strengthen the mood to continue the war (at least such an explanation was given by Admiral Alexander V. Kolchak, which can be found in the records of his interrogations [Starikov, 2014]). The awareness of the mistake came some time later when the defensism policy was substituted with defeatist moods and immediate peace-making.
- 31.
Huntington (1968) also notes that on the eve of revolution the former elite “loses will to power.”.
- 32.
It is remarkable that Louis XVI, the king, still ordered the Life Guards to disperse the disobedient deputies, but when the guards tried to enter the Hall of Minor Pleasures where they gathered, Marquis de La Fayette and some remaining noblemen blocked their route with swords in their hands. About the elite's strange behavior on the eve and during the French Revolution see, e.g., Furet and Richet (1970), Furet (1981, 1996).
- 33.
For an interesting analysis of this miscellany see Eidelman (n.d.).
- 34.
In 1922, a great number of philosophers and publicists were sent abroad by the Soviet government on the so-called Philosophers’ ship.
- 35.
In Chapter “Revolutionary Waves and Lines of the Twentieth Century” (Grinin & Grinin, 2022, in this volume) we discuss the pressure from the American president James Carter who under influence of democratic ideology demanded from Iranian shah and the Nicaraguan dictator Anastasio Somoza to weaken repressions against opposition. They both did this and in result in the both countries in 1979 revolutions began.
- 36.
Television could be used as a means to evoke sympathy for revolutions in the periphery (or vice versa). Also, the rise of terrorism was not least connected with the spread of television. Rather, the role of the latter was important only in a series of anti-communist revolutions in Europe, when opposition representatives had many supporters on television and actively prepared countries for changes employing the idea of freedom of speech and information.
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This chapter is an output of a research project implemented as part of the Basic Research Program at the HSE University in 2022 with support by the Russian Science Foundation (Project No. 18-18-00254).
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Grinin, L. (2022). On Revolutionary Situations, Stages of Revolution, and Some Other Aspects of the Theory of Revolution. In: Goldstone, J.A., Grinin, L., Korotayev, A. (eds) Handbook of Revolutions in the 21st Century. Societies and Political Orders in Transition. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-86468-2_3
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