Abstract
This introductory chapter provides a number of definitions of different kinds and forms of revolutionary events as well as a preliminary description of all the revolutionary waves of the twenty-first century, with their main characteristics and causes, although we also pay attention to revolutions that stand outside these waves. The authors identify three waves of twenty-first century revolutions. The first wave of (color) revolutions happened in 2000–2009. The reasons for this wave at the World System level were the following: (1) the world economy was on the rise, especially actively in the countries of the former second and third worlds; (2) rapid development contributed to the growth of both rising expectations and an increase in inequality; (3) the growth of democratization following upon the fall of communism brought increased influence of Western countries and organizations seeking to assist and/or promote democratization in many formerly authoritarian countries. The second wave is the Arab Spring and its echo, in 2010/2011–2013. The reasons at the World System level for this wave were (1) the world economy was in crisis due to the global Great Recession; (2) development had been rapid but highly uneven in such middle-income countries as Egypt, or Tunisia; (3) agflation (inflation in the prices of agricultural commodities) formed a specific precursor of the revolutionary crisis; and (4) the success of the first wave led to the diffusion of skills and models of non-violent revolution as a way to combat state corruption and displace authoritarian rule. The third wave started in 2018 and continues into the 2020s. At the World System level, this wave had the following reasons: (1) a new deterioration of the situation in the world economy with the lowest annual growth rates since the 1990s, and generally greater concentration of wealth and greater inequality; (2) this resulted in many cases in declining standards of living for the lower and middle income portions of populations, and a rise in prices for some countries; (3) destabilization in the World System in reaction to heightened tensions among the major powers: Europe, the United States, Russia and China; and (4) the continued diffusion of demand for democracy, e.g. in Armenia, Hong Kong, Belarus, etc.; (5) in 2020, COVID is added, which significantly worsens the economic and social situation. In this introductory chapter, we also offer a preliminary analysis of how revolutions change their types and forms over the course of history. The chapter ends with a description of how the present volume is organized.
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Notes
- 1.
In the next Chapter “The Phenomenon and Theories of Revolution” (Goldstone et al., 2022b) we review the history of theorizing on revolutions.
- 2.
See Chapter “The Phenomenon and Theories of Revolution” (Goldstone et al., 2022b), Chapter “Revolutions and Historical Process” (Grinin, 2022d), Chapter “Evolution and Typology of Revolutions” (Grinin, 2022a), Chapter “Typology and Principles of Dynamics of Revolutionary Waves in World History” (Rozov, 2022), Chapter, “Revolutionary Waves of the Early Modern period. Types and Phases” (Tsygankov, 2022), Chapter “The European Revolutions and Revolutionary Waves of the Nineteenth Century: Their Causes and Consequences” (Grinin, 2022g), Chapter “Revolutionary Waves and Lines of the Twentieth Century” (Grinin & Grinin, 2022), Chapter, “On Revolutionary Waves Since the Sixteenth Century” (Grinin 2022c), Chapter “Revolutions of the Twenty-First Century as a Factor in the World System Reconfiguration” (Grinin, 2022f), and Chapter “Conclusion. How Many Revolutions Will We See in the Twenty-First Century?” (Goldstone et al. 2022a) in this volume.
- 3.
Some of those revolutions mentioned in this and previous pages are analyzed in Chapter “Revolutions and Historical Process” (Grinin, 2022d), Chapter “Evolution and Typology of Revolutions” (Grinin, 2022a), Chapter “Typology and Principles of Dynamics of Revolutionary Waves in World History” (Rozov, 2022), Chapter “The European Revolutions and Revolutionary Waves of the Nineteenth Century: Their Causes and Consequences” (Grinin, 2022g), Chapter “Revolutionary Waves and Lines of the Twentieth Century” (Grinin & Grinin, 2022), and Chapter “On Revolutionary Waves Since the Sixteenth Century” (Grinin, 2022c) in this volume.
- 4.
For an analysis of such revolutions see Chapter “Evolution and Typology of Revolutions” (Grinin, 2022a), Chapter “Revolutionary Waves of the Early Modern period. Types and Phases” (Tsygankov, 2022), Chapter “Revolutionary Waves and Lines of the Twentieth Century” (Grinin & Grinin, 2022), Chapter “On Revolutionary Waves Since the Sixteenth Century” (Grinin, 2022c), and Chapter “Two Experiences of the Islamic ‘Revival’: The 1979 Islamic Revolution in Iran and the Formation of the Islamic State in Syria and Iraq in the 2010s” (Filin et al., 2022a, in this volume).
- 5.
The twentieth century revolutions are analyzed in Chapter “The European Revolutions and Revolutionary Waves of the Nineteenth Century: Their Causes and Consequences” (Grinin, 2022g) and Chapter “Revolutionary Waves and Lines of the Twentieth Century” (Grinin & Grinin, 2022) in this volume.
- 6.
For an analysis of the rather complex relationship between modernization and revolutions see Chapter “Revolution and Modernization Traps” (Grinin, 2022d, in this volume); see also Grinin (2012b, 2013a, 2013b, 2017a, 2017b), Korotayev et al. (2017a, 2017b, 2017c, 2018a, 2018b), Korotayev et al. (2017a, 2017b, 2018a, 2018b), Korotayev et al. (2020a, 2020b, 2021a, 2021b, 2021c, 2021d).
- 7.
See Chapter “The Arab Spring: Causes, Conditions, and Driving Forces” (Grinin & Korotayev, 2022b), Chapter “The Jasmine Revolution in Tunisia and the Birth of the Arab Spring Uprisings” (Kuznetsov, 2022), Chapter “Egypt’s 2011 revolution. A demographic structural analysis” (Korotayev & Zinkina, 2022), Chapter “The Arab Spring in Yemen” (Issaev et al., 2022), Chapter “The Syrian Revolution” (Akhmedov, 2022), Chapter “Revolution in Libya” (Barmin, 2022), Chapter “The Extent of Military Involvement in Nonviolent, Civilian Revolts and their Aftermath” (Rasler et al., 2022) and Chapter “The Arab Spring. A Quantitative Analysis” (Korotayev et al., 2022a, in this volume); see also Grinin (2012a), Korotayev and Khokhlova (2022).
- 8.
On revolutionary situations see Chapter “On Revolutionary Situations, Stages of Revolution, and Some Other Aspects of the Theory of Revolution” (Grinin, 2022b, in this volume); see also Grinin (2020b).
- 9.
About analogues of revolution in Germany after 1933, in Egypt after 1952, and in Venezuela after 1999 see Chapter “Revolutionary Waves and Lines of the Twentieth Century” (Grinin & Grinin, 2022, in this volume).
- 10.
See Chapter “‘Moldovan Spring’ 2009: The Atypical ‘Revolution’ of April 7 and the Days that Followed” (Tkachuk et al., 2022, in this volume).
- 11.
See Chapter “The Green Movement in Iran: 2009–2010” (Filin, 2022, in this volume).
- 12.
See Chapter “Turkey. The (Gulen) Cemaat and the State: An Unfinished Conquest” (Baskan, 2022) in this volume.
- 13.
See Chapter “Modern Protest Civil Movements in Sub-Saharan Africa in the Context of Global Political Destabilization” (Sadovskaya et al., 2022, in this volume).
- 14.
See Chapter “The Bulldozer Revolution in Serbia” (Khodunov, 2022a, in this volume).
- 15.
See Chapter “The Rose Revolution in Georgia” (Khodunov, 2022c, in this volume).
- 16.
See Chapter “The Orange Revolution in Ukraine” (Khodunov, 2022b) in this volume.
- 17.
See Chapter “Revolutions in Kyrgyzstan” (Ivanov, 2022, in this volume).
- 18.
See Chapter “The Green Movement in Iran: 2009–2010” (Filin, 2022) in this volume.
- 19.
See Chapter “‘Moldovan Spring’ 2009: The Atypical ‘Revolution’ of April 7 and the Days that Followed” (Tkachuk et al., 2022, in this volume).
- 20.
To these one may add a number of revolutions, revolutionary and quasi-revolutionary episodes in Sub-Saharan Africa in the 2000s (Senegal-2000, Madagascar-2001–2002, Togo-2005, Guinea-2007–2010, Ivory Coast-2010–2011 and so on).
- 21.
About rising expectations, see Chapter “Revolutions, Counterrevolutions, and Democracy” (Grinin & Korotayev, 2022a) and Chapter “Revolution and Modernization Traps” (Grinin, 2022d) in this volume.
- 22.
However, the sub-wave/line of the Islamist revolutions and rebellions in 2013–2016 (ISIS, Boco Haram, radical Islamist rebellion in Yemen and so on) may be regarded as a continuation of this wave in a dramatically different form—see Chapter “Global echo of the Arab Spring” (Korotayev et al., 2022b) and Chapter “Two Experiences of the Islamic ‘Revival’: The 1979 Islamic Revolution in Iran and the Formation of the Islamic State in Syria and Iraq in the 2010s” (Filin et al. 2022a) in this book.
- 23.
- 24.
For a deeper analysis of the revolutions of this wave see Chapter “The Arab Spring: Causes, Conditions, and Driving Forces” (Grinin & Korotayev, 2022b), Chapter “The Jasmine Revolution in Tunisia and the Birth of the Arab Spring Uprisings” (Kuznetsov, 2022), Chapter “Egypt’s 2011 Revolution. A Demographic Structural Analysis” (Korotayev & Zinkina, 2022), Chapter “The Arab Spring in Yemen” (Issaev et al., 2022), Chapter “The Syrian Revolution” (Akhmedov, 2022), Chapter “Revolution in Libya” (Barmin, 2022), Chapter “The Extent of Military Involvement in Nonviolent, Civilian Revolts and their Aftermath” (Rasler et al., 2022), Chapter “The Arab Spring. A Quantitative Analysis” (Korotayev et al., 2022b), and Chapter “Revolutions of the Twenty-First Century as a Factor in the World System Reconfiguration” (Grinin, 2022f, in this volume).
- 25.
However, the emerging global inflation launched by the new quantitative easing and other phenomena can make this wave similar to the previous one.
- 26.
For the impact of the COVID pandemic on economic, social and political life, see, for example, Grinin (2020a), Irshad (2020), Korotayev et al. (2020a; 2020b), Widdowson (2021), Rodrigue (2021). Examples of direct contributions of the COVID-19 pandemic to the genesis of revolutionary events already can be found in Kyrgyzstan (see Chapter “Revolutions in Kyrgyzstan [Ivanov, 2022, in this volume], Belarus, and Cuba.
- 27.
On the other hand, this is still sometimes regarded as a separate revolutionary wave—see Chapter “Typology and Principles of Dynamics of Revolutionary Waves in World History” (Rozov, 2022, in this volume); see also Korotayev et al. (2015a; 2015b).
- 28.
See Chapter “The Phenomenon and Theories of Revolution” (Goldstone et al., 2022b), Chapter “On Revolutionary Situations, Stages of Revolution, and Some Other Aspects of the Theory of Revolution” (Grinin, 2022b), and Chapter “Revolutions, Counterrevolutions, and Democracy” (Grinin & Korotayev, 2022a).
- 29.
Chapter “Revolutions and Historical Process” (Grinin, 2022d), “Evolution and Typology of Revolutions” (Grinin, 2022a), “The ‘problem of structure and agency’ and contemporary sociology of revolution and social movements” (Karasev, 2022), and Chapter “Revolution and Modernization Traps” (Grinin, 2022d).
- 30.
Chapter “Typology and Principles of Dynamics of Revolutionary Waves in World History” (Rozov, 2022), Chapter “Revolutionary Waves of the Early Modern period. Types and Phases” (Tsygankov, 2022), Chapter “The European Revolutions and Revolutionary Waves of the Nineteenth Century: Their Causes and Consequences” (Grinin, 2022g), Chapter “Revolutionary Waves and Lines of the Twentieth Century” (Grinin & Grinin, 2022), and Chapter “On Revolutionary Waves Since the Sixteenth Century” (Grinin, 2022c) in the present monograph.
- 31.
See Chapter “All Around the World: Revolutionary Potential in the Age of Authoritarian Revanchism” (Selbin, 2022), Chapter “The Color Revolutions. Successes and Limitations of Non-violent Protest” (Mitchell, 2022), Chapter “The Bulldozer Revolution in Serbia” (Khodunov, 2022a), Chapter “Serbian ‘Otpor’ and the Color Revolutions’ Diffusion” (Filin et al., 2022b), Chapter “The Rose Revolution in Georgia” (Khodunov, 2022c), Chapter “The Orange Revolution in Ukraine” (Khodunov, 2022b), Chapter “Revolutions in Kyrgyzstan” (Ivanov, 2022), Chapter “‘Moldovan Spring’ 2009: The Atypical ‘Revolution’ of April 7 and the Days that Followed” (Tkachuk et al., 2022), and Chapter “The Green Movement in Iran: 2009–2010” (Filin, 2022) in this book.
- 32.
See Chapter “The Arab Spring: Causes, Conditions, and Driving Forces” (Grinin & Korotayev, 2022b), Chapter “The Jasmine Revolution in Tunisia and the Birth of the Arab Spring Uprisings” (Kuznetsov, 2022), Chapter “Egypt’s 2011 Revolution. A Demographic Structural Analysis” (Korotayev & Zinkina, 2022), Chapter “The Arab Spring in Yemen” (Issaev et al., 2022), Chapter “The Syrian Revolution” (Akhmedov, 2022), Chapter “Revolution in Libya” (Barmin, 2022), Chapter “The Extent of Military Involvement in Nonviolent, Civilian Revolts and their Aftermath” (Rasler et al., 2022), and Chapter “The Arab Spring. A Quantitative Analysis” (Korotayev et al., 2022a, in this volume).
- 33.
Chapter “Global echo of the Arab Spring” (Korotayev et al., 2022b), Chapter “Euromaidan Revolution in Ukraine” (Shevsky 2022), Chapter “Two Experiences of the Islamic ‘Revival’: The 1979 Islamic Revolution in Iran and the Formation of the Islamic State in Syria and Iraq in the 2010s” (Filin et al., 2022a), Chapter “Turkey. The (Gulen) Cemaat and the State: An Unfinished Conquest” (Baskan, 2022), Chapter “The Armenian Revolution of 2018: A Historical-Sociological Interpretation” (Derluguian & Hovhannisyan, 2022), Chapter “Modern Protest Civil Movements in Sub-Saharan Africa in the Context of Global Political Destabilization” (Sadovskaya et al., 2022), Chapter “Articulating the Web of Transnational Social Movements” (Chase-Dunn et al., 2022) in this volume.
- 34.
Chapter “Two Experiences of the Islamic ‘Revival’: The 1979 Islamic Revolution in Iran and the Formation of the Islamic State in Syria and Iraq in the 2010s” (Filin et al., 2022a, in this volume).
- 35.
Chapter “Turkey. The (Gulen) Cemaat and the State: An Unfinished Conquest” (Baskan, 2022) in this volume.
- 36.
Chapter “Modern Protest Civil Movements in Sub-Saharan Africa in the Context of Global Political Destabilization” (Sadovskaya et al., 2022, in this volume).
- 37.
Chapter “Revolutions of the Twenty-First Century as a Factor in the World System Reconfiguration” (2022f), Chapter “Global Inequality and World Revolutions: Past, Present and Future” (Chase-Dunn & Nagy, 2022), and Chapter “Revolution Forecasting. Formulation of the Problem” (Shults, 2022).
- 38.
Chapter “Conclusion. How Many Revolutions Will We See in the Twenty-First Century?” (Goldstone et al., 2022a).
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Acknowledgement
This chapter is an output of a research project implemented as part of the Basic Research Program at HSE University in 2021 with support by the Russian Science Foundation (Project No. 18-18-00254) for Professors Grinin and Korotayev. Dr. Goldstone’s contribution to this chapter was made possible in part by grants from the Carnegie Corporation of New York and the Charles Koch Foundation. The statements made and views expressed therein are solely the responsibility of the authors
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Goldstone, J.A., Grinin, L., Korotayev, A. (2022). Introduction. Changing Yet Persistent: Revolutions and Revolutionary Events. In: Goldstone, J.A., Grinin, L., Korotayev, A. (eds) Handbook of Revolutions in the 21st Century. Societies and Political Orders in Transition. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-86468-2_1
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