Patterns of Long-Term Dynamics of World Gold Production

Abstract

The article analyses the patterns of long-term growth of the global gold market. In order to describe its dynamics was used the value indicator - annual gold production in dollars (annual industry revenue). Based on a large amount of statistical material, critical, turning points in the development of the gold market are determined, a forecasted estimate is given of the limits for the growth of gold production in dollars and the timing for their achievement. It was analyzed that for more than four hundred years (1493–1945), the dynamics of annual world gold production in dollars has demonstrated growth with increasing relative growths. In the middle of the last century, a cardinal change in the development trend took place: the world gold market moved from a regime with an aggravation to limited growth. During two hundred years (1820–2020), the dynamics of annual world gold production in dollars follows an exponential growth regime with a constant average rate. A characteristic time of exponential growth of 28 years determines the main time rhythm, manifested both in price dynamics and in fluctuations in annual gold production in the 20th century. Global annual gold mining in dollars is in the vicinity of its peak. The growth limit is estimated at 394 billion dollars, the timing for reaching the peak – 2030–2035 #COMESYSO1120.