Abstract
This chapter analyzes the relations between the United States and China in the twenty-first century in the context of power transition theory. The theory predicts violent or peaceful transitions of global leadership based on two factors: power parity/predominance and status quo satisfaction/dissatisfaction. In light of the theory, the chapter systematically examines the power distribution between the United States and China as well as their institutional similarities or dissimilarities and areas of potential conflict and cooperation.
An earlier version of this chapter was presented at the European Consortium for Political Research at Wroclaw, Poland, September 4–7, 2019. The author wishes to thank Jacek Kugler, Ronald Tammen, Patrick James, Birol Yeşilada, and Ernie Maldonado for their comments and suggestions. The author is indebted to Fulvio Attinà, Daniela Irrera, Mladen Lisănin, and other panel participants for discussions. The author also thanks Jingjing An and Zhijun Gao for updating the data used in this chapter.
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Notes
- 1.
- 2.
https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2019/01/weodata/index.aspx. Retrieved on July 24, 2019.
- 3.
See Cullen (2007) for comparisons of PPP and Market Rate GDP.
- 4.
See “The Forecast Procedure,” SAS/ETS User Guide, Version 6, Second Edition, Raleigh, NC 1993: The SAS Institute, pp. 421–470.
- 5.
While we do not have actual data for political extraction for China after 2015, by observations, China’s political capacity has been strengthened with the new leadership that started in 2013. One example is the anti-corruption campaign that has sent many high-ranking corrupted officials to jail. .
- 6.
Chas Freeman, “The Sino-American Split and its Consequences,” The Foreign Policy Association’s Centennial Lecture Series, June 13, 2019.
- 7.
For the source of the data, please see the Appendix. For the sources of all other data related to China and the United States in this chapter, also refer to the Appendix.
- 8.
It should be mentioned that PCT filings do not indicated the quality or monetized value of a patent.
- 9.
Reuters, Business News, June 27, 2019, “U.S. dependence on China's rare earth: Trade war vulnerability” https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-china-rareearth-explainer/us-dependence-on-chinas-rare-earth-trade-war-vulnerability-idUSKCN1TS3AQ.
- 10.
The sources of the data to help identify these micro-foundations of the preferences are provided in the Appendix.
- 11.
The perspective of relative and absolute gains is a useful concept to explore the sources of conflict or the divergence of interest between the United States and China. The concept has become the watershed between realism and liberalism. Grieco (1988) proposes a simple formula to identify the influence on foreign policy of relative and absolute gains: U = V−k(W − V) In this formula, V is the absolute gain to the home country, and W is the absolute gain to the other country. The variable that differentiates the outlook is k, which is the home country’s concerns for the relative gain, W − V; the larger value of k indicates a more negative position taken by the home country toward the other country. If the international transactions produce positive values to both, then V and W are both larger than zero, but W − V can be positive, negative, or zero. If k is zero, then the relative gain W − V would not matter to the nation’s decision-maker, regardless of what W − V (positive, negative, or zero) is. What is important would be just the absolute gain to the country in the transaction with the other country. However, when k is larger than zero, then the relative gain starts to matter. As long as k is larger than zero, then k(W − V) will be larger than zero given that W − V is larger than zero (reflecting the other country gaining more), and this relative gain is to be deducted from the absolute gain and will enter the calculus of the optimal national foreign policy. The net value in transactions decreases for the home country as doing business with the other country will make the home country vulnerable. Conceivably, if W − V is large enough with a positive k or k is large enough with a positive W − V, k (W − V) can be larger than W, leading to the decision not to have any transactions with the other country, keeping other factors constant. There are other possibilities. W − V may be negative. The home country gains more from the transactions than the other country. If the home country holds a negative opinion of the other country, doing business with the other country still makes sense, as it enlarges the power distance of between the two in favor of the home country.
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Appendix: US and China Comparison—Data Sources
Appendix: US and China Comparison—Data Sources
Country | Year | Variable | Sources |
|---|---|---|---|
Ethnic dimension | |||
China | 2019 | Population | United States Census Bureau: https://www.census.gov/popclock/ |
China | 2018 | Population | China statistical yearbook |
United States | 2019 | Population | United States Census Bureau https://www.census.gov/popclock/ |
China | 2015 | Ethnic group | 2015年全国1%人口抽样调查主要数据公报 http://www.stats.gov.cn/tjsj/zxfb/201604/t20160420_1346151.html |
China | 2010 | Ethnic group | The sixth census in 2010, China statistical yearbook |
United States | 2018 | Ethnic group | United States Census Bureau https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/fact/table/US/RHI225218 |
Religious dimension | |||
China | 2014 | Religion | China Family Panel Studies (CFPS) 2014 |
United States | 2018 | Religion | |
Economic dimension | |||
China/United States | 2018 | Largest economy | World Economic Forum https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2018/04/the-worlds-biggest-economies-in-2018/ |
China/United States | 2017 | Largest exporter | World Economic Forum https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2018/06/these-are-the-worlds-biggest-exporters |
China/United States | 2017 | Largest importer | World Economic Forum https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2018/07/these-are-the-worlds-biggest-importers |
China/United States | 2018 | FDI stock inward | UNCTAD World Investment Report 2019 |
China/United States | 2018 | FDI inflows | UNCTAD World Investment Report 2019 |
China/United States | 2018 | Foreign exchange reserves excluding gold | World Bank (IMF) |
China/United States | 2018 | Auto producer | Organisation Internationale des Constructeurs d’Automobiles http://www.oica.net/category/production-statistics/2018-statistics/ |
China/United States | 2017 | Auto market | Organisation Internationale des Constructeurs d’Automobiles http://www.oica.net/category/sales-statistics/ |
China | 2017 | Expressway | Wikipedia & 2018 年交通运输行业发展统计公报 |
United States | 2017 | Expressway | Wikipedia & Public Road Length-2017 Miles By Functional System https://www.fhwa.dot.gov/policyinformation/statistics/2017/hm20.cfm |
China/United States | 2011/2012 | Waterways | The World Factbook https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/fields/386rank.html |
China/United States | 2017 | Net public debt as % GDP | The World Factbook https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2186rank.html |
China/United States | 2019 | PCT filing | Patent Cooperation Treaty Yearly Review 2019 (The World Intellectual Property Organization) United States 56,142; China 53,345 |
Social economic dimension | |||
China/United States | 2017 | Life expectancy | World Bank |
China/United States | 2017 | Fertility rate | World Bank |
China/United States | 2018 | Urban population | World Bank |
China/United States | 2018 | Private consumption | CEIC data https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/china/private-consumption--of-nominal-gdp (China) https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/united-states/private-consumption--of-nominal-gdp (United States) |
China/United States | 2017 | Gross saving | World Bank |
China/United States | 2018 | Energy consumption | Global Energy Statistical Yearbook 2019 |
China/United States | 2018 | GDP current$ | World Bank |
China/United States | 2018 | GDP PPP based (constant 2011 international $) | World Bank |
Natural resources dimension | |||
China/United States | 2018 | Total land area | World Bank |
China/United States | 2016 | Arable land | World Bank |
China/United States | 2017 | Total natural resources rents (% of GDP) | World Bank |
China/United States | 2017 | Coal rents (% of GDP) | World Bank |
Military dimension | |||
China/United States | 2018 | Military expenditure (current USD) | Stockholm International Peace Research Institute |
China/United States | 2018 | Military expenditure (% of GDP) | Stockholm International Peace Research Institute |
China/United States | 2017 | Armed forces personnel, total | World Bank |
China/United States | 2018 | Nuclear weapon | Stockholm International Peace Research Institute |
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Feng, Y. (2021). Friction, Competition, or Cooperation? Menu of Choice for the United States and China—A Power Transition Perspective. In: Attinà, F. (eds) World Order Transition and the Atlantic Area. Global Power Shift. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-63038-6_3
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