The Turbulent Future of International Relations

Abstract

Four structural forces will shape the future of International Relations: globalization (but without liberal rules, institutions, and leadership); multipolarity (the end of American hegemony and wider distribution of power among states and non-states); the strengthening of distinctive, national and subnational identities, as persistent cultural differences are accentuated by the disruptive effects of Western style globalization (what Sam Huntington called the “non-westernization of IR”); and secular economic stagnation, a product of longer-term global decline in birth rates combined with aging populations. These structural forces do not determine everything. Environmental events, global health challenges, internal political developments, policy mistakes, technology breakthroughs or failures, will intersect with structure to define our future. But these four structural forces will impact the way states behave, in the capacity of great powers to manage their differences, and to act collectively to settle, rather than exploit, disputes arising from local conflicts, challenges of climate change, threats to biodiversity, global diseases, nuclear proliferation and an accelerating nuclear arms race, and alleviating global poverty and inequality. Structure will increase uncertainty and exacerbate conflict. It will also diminish the disposition and capacity of the global system to address the inevitable shocks of the next decade.