Abstract
During the last three decades, as China has attacked one cause of death after another, the mortality level of the population has undergone a profound transformation. As in many other developing countries, China’s mortality transition took place most spectacularly during the 1950s, with subsequent gains being more gradual and modest. Therefore, a careful look at mortality data for the 1950s should tell us much about the historic shift from China’s traditional very high mortality to the relatively low mortality of today.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
Preview
Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.
Similar content being viewed by others
Notes
Sources of PRC population data during the 1950s were exhaustively analyzed in Aird (1961).
This quotation and all data in this paragraph on infant mortality were reported by Chandrasekhar (1959, 52-54). The use of “keypoints,” which are usually advanced localities with relatively developed statistical systems, to estimate infant mortality rates in the 1950s was described by Liu Changxin and Cang (1980).
Confidential data source.
Most of the analysis in this section was first published in Banister and Preston (1981a).
Interview with Li Junyao, 13 May 1981, in Bethesda, Maryland.
For more detail on health and mortality in Tibet, see Banister (1977b, 449-453).
Preston found that the level of respiratory tuberculosis is a critical determinant of the relationship between mortality at ages 5-40 and mortality at other ages (Preston 1976, Chapter 5).
Rural and urban male and female infant mortality rates are calculated from Ling’s data (1981, Table 3) using the formula 1qo = 1mo/[1+(1−1ao)1mo] where 1ao = 0.33.
But Japan may underreport deaths of infants under one day old.
References
Aird, John S. 1961. The Size, Composition, and Growth of the Population of Mainland China. U.S. Bureau of the Census, International Population Statistics Reports, Series P-90, no. 15. Washington DC: U.S. Bureau of the Census.
American Tropical Medicine Delegation to the People’s Republic of China. 1979. “Tropical medicine and hygiene in modern China.” Tropical Medicine and Hygiene News 28(3): 1–62.
“Anhui military district hails Lin-Jiang verdict.” 1981. FBIS 21, 2 Febuary, 0-5.
Arena, Jay M. 1974. “China’s children.” Nutrition Today 9(5): 20–25.
Atlas of Cancer Mortality in the People’s Republic of China. 1979. Shanghai: China Map Press.
“Average life expectancy passes 70 years in China.” 1980. JPRS 76642 (17 October): 48.
Balfour, Marshall C., Roger F. Evans, Frank W. Notestein, and Irene B. Taeuber. 1950. “China (excluding Taiwan).” Pp. 71–87 in Public Health and Demography in the Far East, Report of a Survey Trip, September 13–December 13, 1948. New York: Rockefeller Foundation.
Banister, Judith. 1977a. “Mortality, fertility, and contraceptive use in Shanghai.” China Quarterly 70: 255–295.
——. 1977b. The Current Vital Rates and Population Size of the People’s Republic of China and Its Provinces. Ph.D. dissertation, Stanford Univerity. University Microfilms no. 7808759.
Banister, Judith. 1987. China’s Changing Population. Stanford CA: Stanford University Press.
Banister, Judith, Samuel, H. Preston. 1981a. “Mortality in China.” Population and Development Review 7: 98–110.
Banister, Judith, and Samuel, H. Preston 1981b. “Estimates of completeness of death recording in the Chinese sample survey 1972–1975.” Pp. 22–39 in Robert J. Latham and Rodolfo A. Bulatao (eds.), Research on the Population of China, Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington DC: National Academy Press.
Banister, Judith, and Shyam Thapa. 1981. The Population Dynamics of Nepal. Honolulu: East-West Center.
Barclay, George W., Ansley J. Coale, Michael A. Stoto, and T. James Trussell. 1976. “A reassessment of the demography of traditional rural China.” Population Index 42: 606–635.
Beijing Health Department. 1962. “Beijing Children’s Hospital.” SCMP 2752, 5 June: 18.
Beijing Ribao (Beijing Daily). 1980a. “Beijing ren de shouming dou chang?” (What is the life expectancy of Beijing’s population?). 2 May: 1.
——. 1980b. “Benshi huifu zhuchanshi ban bing jian xinshenger qiangjiu zhongxin” (This municipality restores training of midwives and establishes newborn rescue centers). 1980. 5 October: 1.
Biannic, Georges. 1979. “AFP reports 400,000 persons killed in Cultural Revolution.” FBIS 25 (5 Febuary): E2.
Bowers, John Z. 1973. “The history of public health in China to 1937.” Pp 26–45 in Myron E. Wegman, Lin Tsung-Yi, and Elizabeth F. Purcell (eds.), Public Health in the Peoples Republic of China. New York: Josiah Macy, Jr. Foundation.
Brass, William. 1975. Methods for Estimating Fertility and Mortality from Limited and Defective Data. Chapel Hill NC: International Program of Laboratories for Population Statistics, Dept. of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Carolina Population Center, University of North Carolina.
Burnashev, E. Yu. 1958. “Public health in People’s China.” Zdravookhranenie rossuskoi federastic (Public health in the Russian Federation) 11: 35–41.
Butterfield, Fox. 1980. “Peking indictment accuses radicals of killing 34,000.” New York Times 17 November: A3.
Chandrasekhar, Sripati. 1959. China’s Population: Census and Vital Statistics. Hong Kong: Hong Kong University Press.
“Child health care.” 1977. Peking Review 20(42): 31-42.
“Child health care in new China.” 1975. Chinese Medical Journal, New series 1: 91.
“Children’s health.” 1974. FBIS 109 (5 June): E6.
Chu, Fu-T’ang. 1959. “Chien-kuo shih-nien-lai erh-t’ung pao-chien shih-yeh te ch’eng-chiu” (Achievements in child health care in the ten years since Liberation). Chinese Journal of Pediatrics 10(5): 367–373.
Chu, Fu-T’ang. 1964. “Pa-nien lai wo-kuo erh-k’o kung-tso te chin-chan” (China’s progress in pediatrics in the last eight years). Chinese Journal of Pediatrics 13(5): 342.
Coale, Ansley J. and Paul Demeny. 1966. Regional Model Life Tables and Stable Populations. Princeton NJ: Princeton University Press.
“Communique on 1982 census.” 1983. FBIS 208 (27 October): K2-K5.
Croizier, Ralph. 1975. “Medicine and modernization in China: An historical overview.” Pp. 21–35 in Arthur Kleinman, Peter Kunstadter, E. Russell Alexander, and James L. Gale (eds.), Medicine in Chinese Cultures: Comparative Studies of Health Care in Chinese and Other Societies. Washington DC: U.S. Department of Health, Education, and Welfare, Public Health Service, National Institutes of Health.
DeBakey, Michael E. 1974. A Surgeon’s Diary of a Visit to China. Phoenix AZ.
Deron, Francis. 1979. “Poster cites 67,400 killed in Guangxi during Cultural Revolution.” JPRS 74099 (20 August): 51.
Dong Hengde et al. 1982. “Shanghai shiqu kongzhi yinger siwang loubaode cuoshi yu xiaoguo” (Measures for overcoming omissions in the reporting of infant deaths in the Shanghai metropolitan areas and their effectiveness). Renkou Yanjiu 4: 49–50.
Enderton, Catherine Schurr. 1975. “Geographical notes from a China diary: March 1975.” The China Geographer 1: 39–47.
Er Bao. 1979. “Benshi ertong baojian shiye pengbo fazhan” (Child health work in Shanghai developing vigorously). Wenhui Bao 16 May: 2.
Faundes, Anibal and Tapani Luukainen. 1972. “Health and family planning services in the Chinese People’s Republic.” Studies in Family Planning 3 (7; Supplement): 165–176.
Feeney, Griffith. 1980. “Estimating infant mortality trends from child survivorship data.” Population Studies 34: 109–128.
——. 1982. “Addendum to estimating infant mortality trends from child survivorship data.” Unpublished.
Feeney, Griffith. 1987. “Mortality estimation from child survivorship data: A review.” Pp. 353–370 in Thomas M. McDevitt (ed.), The Survey Under Difficult Conditions Vol. 3. New Haven CT: Human Relations Area Files.
“From 36 to 68.” 1981. Beijing Review 24(27): 4-5.
“Guangdong provincial delegation visits Macao.” 1980. FBIS 113 (10 June): VI.
Guangming Ribao. 1980a. “Hangzhoushi renmin pingjun shouming chaoguo qishisui” (Life expectancy of the people of Hangzhou exceeds 70 years). 3 February: 1.
——. 1980b. “Jinqinei woguo renkou buneng caiqu fushu fazhan” (In the coming years China’s population should not have negative growth). 13 April: 3.
“Improvements in living standards since the founding of the People’s Republic.” 1981. China Reconstructs 30(11): 57-58.
“Initial success noted in PRC’s planned population growth.” 1974. FBIS 166 (26 August): E4.
“Inner Mongolia.” 1977. SWB W939 (27 July): 1; also FBIS 135 (14 July): K4.
Jiang Zhenghua, Zhang Weimin, and Zhu Liwei. 1984. “A preliminary study of life expectancy at birth for China’s population.” Paper presented at the International Seminar on China’s 1982 Population Census, Beijing, March.
Jiefang Ribao (Liberation Daily). 1981. “Woguo renkou pingjun shouming yanchang” (The life expectancy of China’s population has been prolonged). 15 February: 2.
“Kiangsu.” 1977. SWB W933 (15 June): 1.
King, Haitung and Frances B. Locke. 1983. “Selected indicators of current health status and major causes of death in the People’s Republic of China: An historical perspective.” Pp. 375–422 in John L. Scherer (ed.), China Facts and Figures Annual, Vol. 6, 1983. Gulf Breeze FL: Academic International Press.
Ku Yu-Lin, Pao T’ung-Min, Ch’ien Shao-Chung, and Liu Li-Kuei. 1965. “Nung-ts’un erh-tung pao-chien tsu-chih shih-tien yen-chiu” (A pilot study of rural child health organizations). Chinese Journal of Pediatrics 14(1): 2–6.
Lamm, Steven H. and Victor W. Sidel. 1973. “Appendix E: Analysis of preliminary public health data for Shanghai, 1972.” Pp. 238–266 in Victor W. Sidel and Ruth Sidel (eds.), Serve the People: Observations on Medicine in the People’s Republic of China. New York: Josiah Macy, Jr. Foundation.
Lampton, David M. 1977. The Politics of Medicine in China: The Policy Process, 1949-1977. Boulder CO: Westview Press.
Li, Bing and Li, Junyao. 1980. “Zhongguo exing zhongliude siwang qingkuang he fenbu tedian” (Special aspects of cancer mortality and distribution in China). Chinese Journal of Oncology 2(1): 1–10.
Li Chengrui. 1981. Population Censuses in China. Beijing:.
Li, Chengrui. 1982. “Zhongguo renkou chushenglu he siwanglu de fazhan qushi” (The trend in the birth rate and death rate of China’s population). Renkou Yanjiu 1: 15–16.
Li, Frederick P. 1980. “Cancer incidence in China, 1975–2000: Implications for cancer control.” Bethesda MD: mimeo.
Li Muzhen. 1982. “Zhongguo renkou wenti zhongdian zai nongcun” (The focal point of China’s population problem is in the rural areas). Renkou Yanjiu 6: 3–7.
Li Te-Chuan. 1957. “Speech by Health Minister Li.” FBIS 177 (12 September): BBB4-BBB7.
Lin Fude. 1981. “The status-quo and prospect of China’s population.” Paper presented at the Nineteenth General Conference of the International Union for the Scientific Study of Population, Manila, December.
Liaoning Provincial Statistical System. 1982. “Dalianshi 1980 nian renkou zhuangkuang chubu fenxi” (A preliminary analysis of the 1980 population of Dalian). Caijing Wenti Yanjiu (Studies on Financial and Economic Problems) 1: 75–78.
Ling Rui-zhu. 1981. “A brief account of 30 years’ mortality of Chinese population.” World Health Statistics Quarterly 34(2): 127–134.
Liu Changxin and Kaiji Cang. 1980. Renkou Tongji (Population Statistics). Beijing: Statistical Publishing House.
Liu Zheng. 1980. “The present situation and the development of China’s population.” Paper presented at the Beijing International Round Table Conference on Demography, Beijing, October.
Liu Zheng. 1981. “Population planning and demographic theory.” Pp. 1–24 in Liu Zheng et al (eds.), China’s Population: Problems and Prospects. Beijing: New World Press.
Lyle, Katherine Ch’iu, Sheldon J. Segal, Chang Chih-Cheng, and Ch’ien Li-Chuan. n.d. “Perinatal study in Tientsin: 1978.” Mimeo.
Lythcott, George I. 1973. “Pediatric health care in the People’s Republic.” Pp. 139–163 in Report of the Medical Delegation to the People’s Republic of China, June 15–July 6, 1973. Washington DC: National Academy of Sciences, Institute of Medicine.
Martin, Linda G. 1980. “A modification for use in destabilized populations of Brass’ technique for estimating completeness of death registration.” Population Studies 34: 381–396.
“Measures to improve population quality outlined.” 1981. JPRS 77665 (25 March): 4.
“Medical care for children.” 1979. SWB W1036 (20 June): 1-2.
Ministry of Public Health, Cancer Prevention and Treatment Research Office. 1980. Zhongguo Exing Zhongliu Siwang Diaocha Yanjiu (Cancer Mortality Investigation and Research in China). Beijing.
Minkowski, Alexander. 1973. “Care of mother and child.” Pp. 218–232 in Myron E. Wegman, Lin Tsung-Yi, and Elizabeth F. Purcell (eds.), Public Health in the People’s Republic of China. New York: Josiah Macy, Jr. Foundation.
“Mother and child care in rural China.” 1977. SPRCP 6299 (15 March): 61-62.
“New insight into stomach cancer.” 1981. Beijing Review 24(12): 30.
Preston, Samuel H. 1976. Mortality Patterns in National Populations. New York: Academic Press.
Preston, Samuel H. Nathan Keyfitz, and Robert Schoen. 1972. Causes of Death: Life Tables for National Populations. New York: Seminar Press.
Preston, Samuel H., Ansley J. Coale, James Trussell, and Maxine Weinstein. 1980. “Estimating the completeness of reporting adult deaths in populations that are approximately stable.” Population Index 16(2): 179–202.
Qian, Xinzhong. 1980. “Health Minister discusses life expectancy, birth, death rates.” SWB W1036 (1 May): L4–5.
Rong Shoude, Li Junyao, Gao Runquan, Dai Xudong, Cao Dexian, Li Guangyi, and Zhou Youshang. 1981. “Woguo 1973-1975 nian jumin pingjun qiwang shoumingde togji fenxi” (A statistical analysis of life expectancy in China, 1973–1975). Renkou yu Jingji (Population and Economics) 1: 24–31.
Rudong County Woman and Child Care Health Station. 1974. “Barefoot doctors active in rural child health care.” Chinese Medical Journal 10: 601.
“Science, politics cannot be divorced.” 1957. FBIS 194 (7 October): BBB3.
“Sex ratio of China’s newborns normal.” 1983. Beijing Review 26(18): 9.
Shanghai Public Health and Epidemic Prevention Station, Vital Statistics Group. 1981. “Yijiuqijiu nian Shanghai shiqu jumin wanquan shoumingdiaode chubu fenxi” (A preliminary analysis of the 1979 complete life table of the city of Shanghai). Renkou Yanjiu 3: 38.
“Sinkiang.” 1978. SWB W1003 (25 October): 1.
Song Jian and Li Guangyuan. 1980. “Renkou fazhan wentide dingliang yanjiu” (Quantitative research on the problem of population growth). Jingji Yanjiu (Economic Research) 2: 60–67.
State Council Population Office and State Statistical Bureau Department of Population Statistics. 1983. Zhongguo 1982-Nian Renkou Pucha 10% Chouyang Ziliao (The 10% Sample Tabulation of the 1982 Population Census of China). Beijing.
State Family Planning Commission. 1984. Chart for One-per-Thousand-Population Fertility Sampling Survey. Beijing.
State Statistical Bureau. 1981. “Woguo renmin shenghuo you xianzhu gaishan” (The standard of living of China’s people has improved significantly). Zhongguo Qingnian Bao (China Youth News) 13 August: 1.
State Statistical Bureau. 1983a. Statistical Yearbook of China. English edition. Hong Kong: Economic Information and Agency.
——. 1983b. Zhongguo Tongji Zhaiyao 1983 (Statistical Abstract of China 1983). Beijing.
State Statistical Bureau. 1984. “PRC Statistical Bureau communique on 1983 plan.” FBIS 85 (1 May): K2–K14.
“Survey produces statistics on population, birth rate in Beijing.” 1980. FBIS 191 (30 September): R1-2; also in SWB W1103 (8 October): 1.
Teng, Chin-Hsi. 1959. “1958-nien tung tsai Pei-ching liu-hsing te ying-yu-erh fei-yen te yen-chiu” (Study on the 1958 epidemic of pneumonia in Peking among infants and children). Chinese Journal of Pediatrics 10(6): 21.
Thapa, Shyam and Robert D. Retherford. 1982. “Infant mortality estimates based on the 1976 Nepal fertility survey.” Population Studies 36: 61–80.
Tian, Xueyuan. 1981. “A survey of population growth since 1949.” Pp. 32–54 in Liu Zheng et al., China’s Population: Problems and Prospects. Beijing: New World Press.
Tsin Hsin-Chung. 1958. “Nekotorye problemy zdravookhraneniia Kitaiskoi narodnoi respubliki” (Some problems of health services in the People’s Republic of China). Sovetskoe Zdravookhraneniia (Soviet Public Health) 6: 11–17.
Uemura, K., K. Kupka, and M. Subramanian. 1979. Report on the WHO Technical Visit to the People’s Republic of China by the Health Statistics (HST) Group, 28 June to 9 July 1979. Manila.
U.N. Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Statistical Division. 1977. Demographic Yearbook 1976. New York: United Nations.
U.N. Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Statistical Division. 1979. Demographic Yearbook, Vol. 30 pt. 2: Historical Supplement. New York: United Nations.
U.N. Population Division. 1981. New Model Life Tables for Developing Countries. New York: United Nations.
U.S. Bureau of the Census. 1978. World Population 1977-Recent Demographic Estimates for the Countries and Regions of the World. Washington DC: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.
Wang Xinfa. 1980. “1953, 1964-nian woguo renkou pucha gongzuode jingyan” (Our experiences with population censuses in 1953 and 1964). Renkou Yanjiu 2: 9–15.
Wegman, Myron E. 1973. “Public health policy and practice in the People’s Republic of China.” In Report of the Medical Delegation to the People’s Republic of China, 15 June–6 July 1973. Washington DC: National Academy of Sciences, Institute of Medicine.
Wenhui Bao. 1979. “Shanghai ren yue lai yue changshou” (The people of Shanghai are living longer). 29 December: 1.
——. 1981. “Woguo renkou pingjun shouming bi jiefang qian yanchang jin yibei” (The life expectancy of China’s population has practically doubled since before Liberation). 15 February: 1.
Wray, Joe D. 1973. Unpublished travel notes from a visit to the PRC. November.
Wu Yafang. 1981. “Shehui zhuyi weiyinger jiankang chengzhang tigong youyue tiaojian” (Socialism offers superior conditions for the healthy growth of infants). Beijing Ribao 26 May: 1.
Wu Yingkai. 1979. “Epidemiology and community control of hypertension, stroke, and coronary heart disease in China.” Pp. 13-22 in Report on the Visit to the People’s Republic of China, 24 June–8 July 1979, World Health Organization Cardiovascular Diseases Team. Manila: mimeo.
Wu Zhongguan, Yang Zhiheng, and Wang Maoxiu. 1980. “Shilun woguo renkou zaishengchan” (On population reproduction in China). Renkou Yanjiu 1: 25–31.
“Wuhan life expectancy.” 1979. JPRS 74829 (27 December): 103.
Xue Xinbing. 1979. “Advances in child health work in China” (In Chinese). Chinese Journal of Pediatrics 4: 193–196.
Yin Ming. 1977. United and Equal the Progress of China’s Minority Nationalities. Beijing: Foreign Language Press.
Zhang Huaiyu et al. 1981. Renkou Lilun Gaishuo (Introduction to Population Theory). Zhengzhou.
Zhao Beibei. 1981. “Woguo nongcun ertong baojian yanjiu jianxiao” (The child health project in rural China has achieved results). Wenhui Bao 16 May: 1.
Zhu, Minzhi. 1981. “Chen Muhua tong Ruidian wanghou tan jihua shengyu” (Chen Muhua discusses planned birth with the queen of Sweden). Banyuetan (Semi-Monthly Tribune) 19: 8–9.
Zhu Zhengzhi. 1980. “Dangqian woguo renkou wenti ji qi fazhan qushi” (China’s present population problem and its trend of development). Jingji Kexue (Economic Science) 3: 54–58.
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 1992 Springer Science+Business Media New York
About this chapter
Cite this chapter
Banister, J. (1992). China’s Changing Mortality. In: Poston, D.L., Yaukey, D. (eds) The Population of Modern China. The Plenum Series on Demographic Methods and Population Analysis. Springer, Boston, MA. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4899-1231-2_8
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4899-1231-2_8
Publisher Name: Springer, Boston, MA
Print ISBN: 978-0-306-44138-7
Online ISBN: 978-1-4899-1231-2
eBook Packages: Springer Book Archive