Abstract
To compare immediate regulatory options, the decision maker needs a current assessment of outcomes (e.g., health impact of a proposed standard), including, say, a mean and a range of uncertainty. To evaluate an option to delay the decision, he needs to appreciate how that current assessment might change, introducing a higher order uncertainty. This paper explores graphic and other devices for communicating this elusive distinction, with a view to clarity, action orientation and logical soundness. Other common interpretations of uncertainty are treated as secondary for regulatory purposes. A nuclear backfit decision is used as an example.
This material is based upon work supported by the National Science Foundation, under Grant No. PRA-8413114, and by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Division of Risk Analysis and Operations.
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References
Brown, R.V. and Ulvila, J.W. Communicating information and uncertainty in the regulatory process (Draft Report). Falls Church, VA: Decision Science Consortium, Inc., October 1984.
Burke, R.P., Strip, D.R., Aldrich, D.C. Regulatory analysis for severe accident issues: An example (Draft Report). Albuquerque, NM: Sandia National Laboratories, August 1984. (NUREG/CR-3976; SAND84–1727).
Trial decision support summary (Draft working paper). Washington, D.C.: U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Divisions of Risk Analysis and Operations, November 1984.
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© 1987 Plenum Press, New York
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Brown, R.V., Ulvila, J.W. (1987). Communicating Uncertainty for Regulatory Decisions. In: Covello, V.T., Lave, L.B., Moghissi, A., Uppuluri, V.R.R. (eds) Uncertainty in Risk Assessment, Risk Management, and Decision Making. Advances in Risk Analysis, vol 4. Springer, Boston, MA. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4684-5317-1_15
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4684-5317-1_15
Publisher Name: Springer, Boston, MA
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