Introduction and Basic Risk Models

Abstract

What is health risk analysis, and what can it potentially be to make it most valuable to public health decision-makers and other health risk managers? This book develops an answer based on the following ideas. A health risk describes the potential for a hazard — the source of the risk — to adversely affect the health of those exposed to it. Not all of the possible health outcomes are equally valued. A health risk increases the probabilities of some of the less preferred outcomes, such as shorter lives or more frequent illnesses. Quantitative health risk analysis determines by how much different actions change the potentials for various outcomes to occur and quantifies uncertainty about the answers. It helps to identify actions that lead to more preferred probabilities for consequences.