Policy Enablers for the Development of a Space-Based Infrastructure

Abstract

Humankind has been sending systems into space for the last fifty years. With the exception of some systems associated with human spaceflight, there is no infrastructure in space to service or upgrade these systems. An infrastructure for facilities in space would have the potential to reduce the cost of space systems, increase their performance, reduce their risk, improve their flexibility, and even enable new space missions. As the technologies for automated servicing of space systems are emerging, several designs have been proposed for replenishment, repair or upgrade of specific satellites. However, no general conclusion has been drawn to date about the cost-effectiveness of on-orbit servicing. We propose a general model and meaningful cost-effectiveness metrics to systematically explore a wide trade space of missions and servicing infrastructures. We analyze as an example the advantages of refueling one type of space mission: a LEO communications mission. The general conclusion is that while cost models show some benefit to a servicing architecture, the uncertainty in the cost estimates and the uncertainty in the risk of collision and loss of a space system renders the benefits marginal.

We then suggest the effect on the development of a space-based infrastructure if two policies were put in place. First that governments would be an “anchor tenant” for use of a space based refueling and servicing infrastructure and second that the government would mandate standards for architectures to enable servicing and refueling. This would include standard data, power, thermal and mechanical interfaces. Both of these policies mimic the development of large-scale infrastructures in the US. In the first case, the US enabled the development of the air transportation infrastructure by requiring the use of the airlines for carrying the US mail. In the second case, the national highway system imposed uniform standards for the width of the roads (in order to take tanks). Both of these policies would mean that the user of a space based infrastructure would only have to bear the marginal cost of using the system and thus lead to the development of a viable space based capability for servicing and refueling.