The Electorate and the Economy

Abstract

The slogan ‘It’s the economy, stupid’ that was displayed in a campaign room in Little Rock, Arkansas during Bill Clinton’s bid for the presidency in 1992 has passed into political folklore. It captures what came to be seen as one of the truisms of modern electoral behaviour. As allegiances to class and other social groupings have declined, electors have come to be seen more and more as consumers, selecting the political brand that is best for them. Establishing and marketing the brand, as was done so successfully with ‘new’ Labour thus becomes a more central political skill. It carries with it the risk that politicians will follow the short-term preferences of the electorate, as revealed by focus groups, rather than following some longer-term strategic plan based on a coherent set of values (what used to be known as an ‘ideology’). It could be argued that the issue of whether Britain should join EMU has been influenced not by considerations of the economic merits of membership, or by longer-term political considerations, but by whether the electorate can be persuaded to support EMU in a referendum. If they cannot, then a political ‘sixth test’ comes into operation and membership will not be pursued.