Abstract
A probabilistic model for software development projects is constructed. The model can be applied to compute an estimate for the development time of a project. The chances of succeeding with a given amount of time and the risk of deviating from the estimate can be computed as well. Examples show that the model behaves as expected when the input data are changed.
supported by a doctoral fellowship of the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft DFG at the Graduiertenkolleg Informatik, Saarbrücken
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
Preview
Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Abdel-Hamid: “Adapting, Correcting and Perfecting Software Estimates: A Maintenance Metaphor”, IEEE Computer 26-3 (1993) 20–29
Gray, MacDonell:“A Comparison of Techniques for Developing Predictive Models of Software Metrics”, Information and Software Technology 39 (1997) 425–437
Kemerer: “An Empirical Validation of Software Cost Estimation Models”, Communications ACM 30-5 (1987) 416–429
Kemerer: “Reliability of Function Point Measurements: A Field Experiment”, Communications ACM 36-2 (1993) 85–97
Kitchenham, Taylor: “Software Project Development Cost Estimation”, Journal of Systems and Software 5 (1985) 267–278
Lederer, Prasad: “Nine Management Guidelines for Better Cost Estimating”, Communications ACM 35-2 (1992) 51–59
Low, Jeffery: “Function Points in the Estimation and Evaluation of the Software Process”, IEEE Transactions Software Engineering 16-1 (1990) 64–71
Matson, Barrett, Mellichamp: “Software Development Cost Estimation Using Function Points”, IEEE Transactions Software Engineering 20-4 (1994) 275–287
Padberg: “Ein wahrscheinlichkeitstheoretisches Modell für Softwareprozesse”, Technical Report (in German), Universität Saarbrücken 1997
Sallis, Tate, MacDonell: Software Engineering, 1995
Shepperd: Foundations of Software Measurement, 1995
Shepperd, Schofield, Kitchenham: “Effort Estimation Using Analogy”, ICSE 18, International Conference on Software Engineering (1996) 170–178
Srinivasan, Fisher: “Machine Learning Approaches to Estimating Software Development Effort”, IEEE Transactions Software Engineering 21-2 (1995) 126–137
Wittig, Finnie: “Using Artificial Neural Networks and Function Points to Estimate 4GL Software Development Effort”, Australian Journal of Information Systems 1 (1994) 87–94
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 1999 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg
About this paper
Cite this paper
Padberg, F. (1999). A Probabilistic Model for Software Projects. In: Nierstrasz, O., Lemoine, M. (eds) Software Engineering — ESEC/FSE ’99. ESEC SIGSOFT FSE 1999 1999. Lecture Notes in Computer Science, vol 1687. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/3-540-48166-4_8
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/3-540-48166-4_8
Published:
Publisher Name: Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg
Print ISBN: 978-3-540-66538-0
Online ISBN: 978-3-540-48166-9
eBook Packages: Springer Book Archive