Abstract
Handheld computers have been criticized as one of the most excessively hyped new IT products of all time. This paper looks at handheld computing predictions made over a 10 year period, investigating what went wrong, and what went right, with handheld computing predictions. Handheld computing predictions can be divided into three phases, depending on the product concept definition widely held at the time: handheld computers as penbased computers, personal digital assistants, or handheld companions. While longer-term predictions were inflated in the first stage, they were surprisingly accurate in the second stage and excessively conservative in the third stage. The complaints about over enthusiasm and hype have more to do with incorrect product concept assumptions than poor guesses about the size of markets— technology directions are just as difficult to predict, or even more difficult, than technology sales.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
Preview
Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Allen, J.P.: Who Shapes the Future? Problem Framings and the Development of Handheld Computers. Computers and Society, June (1998) 3–8
Bijker, W.E.: Of Bicycles, Bakelite, and Bulbs. Toward a Theory of Sociotechnical Change. MIT Press, Cambridge Massachusetts (1995)
Dvorak, J.C.: Dvorak Predicts. An Insider’s Look at the Computer Industry. Osborne McGraw-Hill, Berkeley (1994)
McLoughlin, I.: Creative Technological Change. The Shaping of Technology and Organisations. Routledge, London (1999)
Sculley, J.: Open Letter. The Red Herring, September/October (1994)
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 1999 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg
About this paper
Cite this paper
Allen, J.P. (1999). Handheld Computing Predictions: What Went Wrong?. In: Gellersen, HW. (eds) Handheld and Ubiquitous Computing. HUC 1999. Lecture Notes in Computer Science, vol 1707. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/3-540-48157-5_12
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/3-540-48157-5_12
Published:
Publisher Name: Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg
Print ISBN: 978-3-540-66550-2
Online ISBN: 978-3-540-48157-7
eBook Packages: Springer Book Archive