Abstract
Glowa-Danube (www.glowa-danube.de) is an interdisciplinary project that aims to develop integrated strategies and tools for water and land use management in the upper Danube catchment (Germany, Austria ∼77,000 km2). The project is one of five within the Glowa research program (www.glowa.org) dealing with Global Change effects on the water cycle in six meso-scale catchments (up to 100,000 km2) in Central Europe, West Africa and the Middle East. In the Glowa-Danube project, 16 natural science and socio-economic simulation models are integrated in the coupled simulation system Danubia. This article describes the underlying concept and implementation of WaterSupply, a multiactor-based model of the water supply sector with a focus on water resource utilization and distribution of individual water supply companies. Within Danubia, WaterSupply represents the link between water supply and demand, where the former is simulated by a groundwater and a surface water model and the latter by water consumption models of four different sectors (domestic, industrial, agricultural and tourism). WaterSupply interprets the quantitative state of water resources for defined spatial and temporal units according to sustainability requirements and assesses the state of resources in relation to present water supply schemes and the dynamics of user demand. WaterSupply then seeks both to optimize the resource use of supply companies and to identify critical regions for which further adaptation of the water supply scheme will become necessary under changing climatic conditions. In this article, a brief description of the Glowa-Danube project and the integrated simulation system Danubia is followed by a short presentation of the DeepActor framework, which provides a common conceptual and technical basis for the socio-economic simulation models of Glowa-Danube. The main body of the article is devoted to the concept, the implementation and simulation results of WaterSupply. Results from different scenario calculations demonstrate the capabilities and the potential fields of application of the model.
Article PDF
Similar content being viewed by others
Explore related subjects
Discover the latest articles, news and stories from top researchers in related subjects.Avoid common mistakes on your manuscript.
References
Alvisi S, Franchini M, Marinelli A (2003) A stochastic model for representing drinking water demand at residential level. Water Resour Manag 17(3):197–222. doi:10.1023/A:1024100518186
Apfelbeck J, Huigen M, Krimly T (2007) The importance of spatial, temporal and social scales in Integrated modeling; simulating the effects of climatic change on district- and farm-level decision making in the Danube catchment area. 81st Annual Conference, April 2–4, 2007, Reading University, UK. http://purl.umn.edu/7984
Athanasiadis I, Mentes A, Mitkas P, Mylopoulos Y (2005) A hybrid agent-based model for estimating residential water demand. Simulation 81(3):175–187
Axtell R (2000) Why agents? On the varied motivations for agent computing in the social sciences. Technical report 17, Center on Social and Economics Dynamics—The Brookings Institution. http://www.brookings.edu/es/dynamics/papers/agents/agents.pdf (March 2009)
Barth M, Hennicker R, Kraus A, Ludwig M (2004) Danubia: an integrative simulation system for global research in the upper danube basin. Cybern Syst 35(7–8):639–666
Barthel R, Nickel D, Meleg A, Trifkovic A, Braun J (2005) Linking the physical and the socio-economic compartments of an integrated water and land use management model on a river basin scale using an object-oriented water supply model. Phys Chem Earth 30(6–7):389–397
Barthel R, Janisch S, Schwarz N, Trifkovic A, Nickel D, Schulz C, Mauser W (2008a) An integrated modelling framework for simulating regional-scale actor responses to global change in the water domain. Environ Model Softw 23:1095–1121. doi:10.1016/j.envsoft.2008.02.004
Barthel R, Mauser W, Braun J (2008b) Integrated modelling of global change effects on the water cycle in the upper Danube catchment (Germany)—the groundwater management perspective. In: Carillo JJ, Ortega MA (eds) Groundwater flow understanding from local to regional scale. International association of hydrogeologists, selected papers on hydrogeology, vol 12. Taylor & Francis, New York, pp 47–72
Bates BC, Kundzewicz ZW, Wu S, Palutikof JP (eds) (2008) Climate change and water. Technical paper of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC Secretariat, Geneva, pp 210. http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/technical-papers/climate-change-water-en.pdf
BAYSTMUGV (2003) Trockenperiode 2003—Auswirkungen auf das Grundwasser. Bayerisches Staatsministerium für Umwelt, Gesundheit und Verbraucherschutz
Berger T, Birner R, Diaz J, McCarthy N, Wittmer H (2007) Capturing the complexity of water uses and water users within a multi-agent framework. Water Resour Manag 21(1):129–148
BMBF (2008) GLOWA—global change and the hydrological cycle. German Ministry of Research and Education—BMBF, IHP-HWRP reports, vol 7, ISSN 1640-1180, p 69
Bouwer H (2002) Integrated water management for the 21st century: problems and solutions. J Irrig Drain Eng 128(4):193–202
Davidsson P (2002) Agent based social simulation: a computer science view. JASSS 5(no. 1). http://jasss.soc.surrey.ac.uk/5/1/7.html
Davis DN (2000) Agent-based decision support framework for water supply infrastructure rehabilitation and development. Int J Comput Environ Urban Syst 24:173–190
Dow K, O’Connor RE, Yarnal B, Carbone GJ, Jocoy CL (2007) Why worry? Community water system managers’ perceptions of climate vulnerability. Glob Environ Change 17:228–237
Ekinci Ö, Konak H (2009) An optimization strategy for water distribution networks. Water Resour Manag 23(1):169–185. doi:10.1007/s11269-008-9270-8. http://www.springerlink.com/content/ex27278317915252
Emmert M (1999) Die Wasserversorgung im deutschen Einzugsgebiet der Donau. Wasserwirtschaft 89(7–8):396–403
Ernst A, Schulz C, Schwarz N, Janisch S (2005) Shallow and deep modeling of water use in a large, spatially explicit coupled simulation system. In: Representing social reality: approaches and results. Proc. 3rd conf. of the European social simulation association, ESSA 05
Ernst A, Schulz C, Schwarz N, Janisch S (2008) Modelling of water use decisions in a large, spatially explicit, coupled simulation system. In: Edmonds B, Hernández C, Troitzsch KG (eds) Social simulation: technologies, advances and new discoveries. Information Science Reference, Hershey, NY, pp 138–149
Espinasse B, Franchesquin N (2005) Multiagent modeling and simulation of hydraulic management of the Camargue. Simulation 81(3):201–221
Feuillette S, Bousquet F, Le Goulven P (2003) SINUSE: a multi-agent model to negotiate water demand management on a free access water table. Environ Model Softw 18(5):413–427
Gaiser T, Araújo JC, Frischkorn H, Krol M (2003) Global change and regional impacts: water availability and vulnerability of ecosystems and society in semi-arid northeast of Brazil. Springer, Heidelberg
Gaiser T, Printz A, Schwarz von Raumer HG, Götzinger J, Dukhovny VA, Barthel R, Sorokin A, Tuchin A, Kiourtsidis C, Ganoulis I, Stahr K (2007) Development of a regional model for integrated management of water resources at the basin scale. Phys Chem Earth 33:175–182. doi:10.1016/j.pce.2007.04.018
Gilbert N, Troitzsch KG (2005) Simulation for the social scientist, 2nd edn. Open University Press, Philadelphia, PA
GLOWA-Danube (Hrsg.) (2008) Global Change Atlas Einzugsgebiet Obere Donau. Ludwigs-Maximilians-Universität, München
GWP—Global Water Partnership (2000) Integrated water resources management. GWP Technical Advisory Committee. TAC Background Papers No.4. GWP, Stockholm, Sweden, pp 67
Haakh F (2007) Klimawandel und Wasserversorgung—Auswirkungen auf das Wasserdargebot, die Wasserqualität und die Versorgungssicherheit; Stuttgarter Berichte zur Siedlungswasserwirtschaft; 192; 22. Trinkwasserkolloquium am 14. Februar 2008. Leitung: Ulrich Rott; München: Oldenbourg Industrieverl. 2008
Hajkowicz S, Kerry C (2007) Review of multiple criteria analysis for water resource planning and management. Water Resour Manag 21(9):1553–1566. doi:10.1007/s11269-006-9112-5. http://www.springerlink.com/content/k2704gh565550mk5
Harbaugh AW, Banta ER, Hill MC, McDonald MG (2000) MODFLOW-2000, The U.S. geological survey modular ground-water model—user guide to modularization concepts and the ground-water flow process. US Geological Survey, Open-File Report 00-92
Hennicker R, Ludwig M (2005) Property-driven development of a coordination model for distributed simulations. In: Formal methods for open object-based distributed systems, 7th IFIP WG 6.1 International Conference, FMOODS 2005, Athens, Greece, Lecture Notes in Computer Science, vol 3535, pp 290–305
Hennicker R, Ludwig M (2006) Design and implementation of a coordination model for distributed simulations. In: Mayr CH, Breu R (eds) Proceedings modellierung 2006 (MOD’06). Lect. notes informatics, vol P-82. Gesellschaft für Informatik, Bonn, pp 83–97
Jobson HE (1989) Users manual for an open-channel stream flow model based on the dif-fusion analogy: U.S. Geological Survey Water-Resources Investigations 89-4133. USGS, Reston, VA, p 73
Kirshen P, Raskin P, Hansen E (1995) WEAP: a tool for sustainable water resources planning in the border region. In: Domenica M (ed) Integrated water resources planning for the 21st century. Proceedings of the 22nd annual conference of ASCE. American Society of Civil Engineers, Cambridge, MA, pp 7–11
Koch H, Grünewald U (2008) A comparison of modelling systems for the development and revision of water resources management plans. Water Resour Manag 23:1403–1422. doi:10.1007/s11269-008-9333-x. http://www.springerlink.com/content/q1071102085h1746
Krysanova V, Hattermann F, Wechsung F (2007) Implications of complexity and uncertainty for integrated modelling and impact assessment in river basins. Environ Model Softw 22(5):701–709
López-Paredes A, Sauri D, Galán J (2005) Urban water management with artificial societies of agents: the FIRMABAR simulator. Simulation 81(3):189–199
Ludwig R, Mauser W, Niemeyer S, Colgan A, Stolz R, Escher-Vetter H, Kuhn M, Reichstein M, Tenhunen J, Kraus A, Ludwig M, Barth M, Hennicker R (2003) Web-based modelling of energy, water and matter fluxes to support decision making in mesoscale catchments—the integrative perspective of Glowa-Danube. Phys Chem Earth 28:621–634
Macy MW, Willer R (2002) From factors to actors: computational sociology and agent-based modeling. Ann Rev Sociol 28:143–166
Maia R, Silva C (2009) DSS application at a river basin scale, taking into account water resources exploitation risks and associated costs: the Algarve Region. Desalination 237(1–3):81–91. doi:10.1016/j.desal.2007.12.024
Mauser W, Strasser U (2005) Statusreport Glowa-Danube integrative techniques, scenarios and strategies regarding global change of the water cycle. Project duration: 01.03.2004-28.02.2007. Report period: 01.03.2004–28.02.2005. http://www.Glowa-danube.de/PDF/reports/statusreport_phase2.pdf
Mauser W, Prasch M, Strasser U (2007) Physically based modelling of climate change impact on snow cover dynamics in Alpine Regions using a stochastic weather generator. http://www.mssanz.org.au/modsim07/papers/39_s55/Phisycallybased_s55_Mauser_.pdf
Moss S, Downing T, Rouchier J (2000) Demonstrating the role of stakeholder participation: an agent based social simulation model of water demand policy and response. http://cfpm.org/~scott/water-demand/demand-pilot1.pdf
Nickel D, Barthel R, Schmid C, Braun J (2005) Large-scale water resources management within the framework of Glowa-Danube—the water supply model. Phys Chem Earth 30(6–7):383–388
Quinn PF, Hewett CJM, Doyle A (2004) Integrated water management: a multi-scale framework for decision support. In: Improving the balance between economic agricultural production and environmental quality through enhanced decision making. OECD, Paris
Rodgers C, van de Giesen N, Laube W, Vlek PLG, Youkhana E (2007) The GLOWA Volta project: a framework for water resources decision-making and scientific capacity building in a transnational West African Basin. Water Resour Manag 21:295–313
Rumbaugh J, Jacobson I, Booch G (2005) The unified modeling language reference manual, 2nd edn. Pearson Education, Upper Saddle River, NJ
Russell S, Norvig P (2003) Artificial intelligence: a modern approach, 2nd edn. Prentice-Hall, Englewood Cliffs, NJ
San Antonio Water System (2009) San Antonio Water System: stage 1 drought restrictions. http://www.saws.org/conservation/aquifermgmt/stage1.shtml (last visited Feb 2009)
Sax M, Schmude J, Dingeldey A (2007) Water and tourism simulating the tourist water use in the Upper Danube catchment area. In: Reducing the vulnerability of societies to water related risks at the basin scale. Proceedings of the third international symposium on integrated water resources management, Bochum, Germany, September 2006. IAHS Publ. 317, pp 66–71
Schwarz N, Ernst A (2009) Agent-based modeling of the diffusion of environmental innovations—an empirical approach. Technol Forecast Soc Change 76:497–511
Scoccimarro M, Walkera A, Dietricha C, Schreidera S, Jakeman T, Rossb H (1999) A framework for integrated catchment assessment in northern Thailand. Environ Model Softw 14(6):567–577
Solomon S, Qin D, Manning M, Chen Z, Marquis M, Averyt KB, Tignor M, Miller HL (eds) (2007) Climate change 2007: the physical science basis. In: Contribution of working group I to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
Thoyer S, Morardet S, Rio P, Simon L, Goodhue R, Rausser G (2001) A bargaining model to simulate negotiations between water users. JASSS 4 (2). http://jasss.soc.surrey.ac.uk/4/2/6.html
Tillmann D, Larsen TA, Pahl-Wostl C, Gujer W (1999) Modeling the actors in water supply systems. Water Sci Technol 39(4):203–211
Timmermans J (2009) Interactive actor analysis for rural water management in The Netherlands: an application of the transactional approach. Water Resour Manag 23:1211–1236
UNESCO (1987) Methodological guidelines for the integrated environmental evaluation of water resources development. United Nations Environment Programme, Paris
van der Keur P, Henriksen HJ, Refsgaard JC, Brugnach M, Pahl-Wostl C, Dewulf A, Buiteveld H (2008) Identification of major sources of uncertainty in current IWRM Practice. Illustrated for the Rhine Basin. Water Resour Manag 22:1677–1708
Victorian Water Industry Ass. Inc. (2005) Victorian Uniform Drought Water Restriction. Guidelines (Final) http://www.vicwater.org.au/uploads/Water%20Restrictions/Final%20Version%20Uniform%20Drought%20Water%20Restriction%20Guidelines.pdf (last visited Feb 2009)
Volk M, Hirschfeld J, Schmidt G, Bohn C, Dehnhardt A, Liersch S, Lymburner L (2007) A SDSS-based ecological–economic modelling approach for integrated river basin management on different scale levels—the project FLUMAGIS. Water Resour Manag 21:12. doi:10.1007/s11269-007-9158-z
Watkins D, Kirby K, Punnett R (2004) Water for the everglades: application of the south Florida systems analysis model. J Water Resour Plan Manage 130(5):359–366
Weiss G (ed) (1999) Multiagent systems: a modern approach to distributed artificial intelligence. The MIT, Cambridge, MA
Wu C (1995) Integrated water resources planning of quantity and quality in Taiwan. In: Domenica M (ed) Integrated water resources planning for the 21st century. Proceedings of the 22nd annual conference of the american society of civil engineers. American Society of Civil Engineers, Cambridge, MA, pp 65–68
Xu C-Y, Singh VP (1998) A review on monthly water balance models for water resources investigations. Water Resour Manag 12(1):31–50. doi:10.1023/A:1007916816469. http://www.springerlink.com/content/p88215w6n3314q1l
Yamout G, El-Fadel M (2005) An optimization approach for multi-sectoral water supply management in the greater Beirut area. Water Resour Manag 19:791–812
Zimmer M (2008) Assessing global change from a regional perspective: an economic close-up of climate change and migration. Dissertation, Volkswirtschaftliche Fakultät, München. http://edoc.ub.uni-muenchen.de/9139/2/Zimmer_Markus.pdf
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Barthel, R., Janisch, S., Nickel, D. et al. Using the Multiactor-Approach in Glowa-Danube to Simulate Decisions for the Water Supply Sector Under Conditions of Global Climate Change. Water Resour Manage 24, 239–275 (2010). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-009-9445-y
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-009-9445-y