Abstract
Climate can be understood both as a resource and a motivation for tourism. This study focuses on the second issue trying to establish the sensitivity to weather anomalies of the outbound flows from United Kingdom, the third biggest international tourist spender country. Using transfer function models it is possible to analyze the significance of the short-term weather conditions in the determination of outbound British flows and simulate the effects of different climate change scenarios. Results show how mean temperature, heat waves, air frost and sunshine days are the weather variables that can be significantly related to the dynamics of the outbound British flows time series.
Article PDF
Similar content being viewed by others
Avoid common mistakes on your manuscript.
References
Agnew M, Palutikof J (2006) Impacts of short-term climate variability in the UK on demand for domestic and international tourism. Clim Res 21:109–120
Aguiló E, Juaneda N (2000) Tourist expenditure for mass tourism markets. Ann Tour Res 27(3):624–637
Amelung B, Viner D (2006) Mediterranean tourism: exploring the future with the tourism climatic index. J Sustain Tour 14(4):349–366
Amelung B, Nicholls S, Viner D (2007) Implications of global climate change for tourism flows and seasonality. J Travel Res 45:285–296
Becken S, Hay J (2007) Tourism and climate change. Risks and opportunities. Channel View, Clevedon
Bigano A, Hamilton JM, Maddison DJ, Tol RSJ (2006a) Predicting tourism flows under climate change an editorial comment on Gössling and Hall (2006). Clim Change 79:175–180
Bigano A, Hamilton JM, Tol RSJ (2006b) The impact of climate change on domestic and international tourism: a simulation study. FEEM Working Paper No. 86.2006
Bigano A, Hamilton J, Tol R (2006c) The impact of climate holiday destination choice. Clim Change 76:389–406
Box GEP, Jenkins GM (1970) Time series analysis, forecasting and control. Holden Day, San Francisco
Burger CJSC, Dohnal M, Kathrada M, Law R (2001) A practitioners guide to time-series methods for tourism demand forecasting—a case study of Durban, South Africa. Tour Manage 22:403–409
Cho V (2003) A comparison of three different approaches to tourist arrival forecasting. Tour Manage 24:323–330
Chow W, Shyu J, Wang K (1998) Developing a forecast system for hotel occupancy rate using integrated ARIMA models. J Int Hosp Leis Tour Manag 1(3):55–66
Coshall JT (2005) A selection strategy for modelling UK tourism flows by air to European destinations. Tour Econ 11:141–158
Crouch GI (1994) The study of international tourism demand: a review of practice. J Travel Res 33:41–54
Giupponi C, Shechter M (2003) Climate change in the Mediterranean. Edwar Elgar, Cheltenham
Gössling S, Hall C (2006) Uncertainties in predicting tourist flows under scenarios of climate change. Clim Change 79:163–173
Greene WH (1997) Econometric analysis. Prentice-Hall, New York
Hall C, Higham J (2005) Tourism, recreation and climate change. Channelview, Clevedon
Hamilton J, Tol R (2007) The impact of climate change on tourism in Germany, the UK and Ireland: a simulation study. Region Environ Change 7:161–172
Hamilton J, Maddison D, Tol R (2005a) Climate change and international tourism: a simulation study. Glob Environ Change 15:253–266
Hamilton J, Maddison D, Tol R (2005b) The effects on climate change on international tourism. Clim Res 29:245–254
Hendry DF (1995) Dynamic econometrics. Oxford University Press, Oxford
Hylleberg S, Engle RF, Granger CWJ, Yoo BS (1990) Seasonal integration and cointegration. J Econom 44:215–238
Kulendran N, Witt S (2003) Leading indicator tourism forecasts. Tour Manage 24(5):503–511
Li G, Song H, Witt SF (2005) Recent developments in econometric modeling and forecasting. J Travel Res 44:82–99
Lim C (1997a) Review of international tourism demand models. Ann Tour Res 24:835–849
Lim C (1997b) An econometric classification and review of international tourism demand models. Tour Econ 3:69–81
Lim C (1999) A meta analysis review of international tourism demand. J Travel Res 37:273–284
Lise W, Tol R (2002) Impact of climate on tourism demand. Clim Change 555:429–449
Maddison D (2001) In search of warmer climates? The impact of climate change on flows of British tourist. Clim Change 49:193–208
Money RB, Crotts JC (2003) The effect of uncertainty avoidance on information search, planning, and purchases of international travel vacations. Tour Manage 24(2):191–202
Pardo A, Meneua V, Valor E (2002) Temperature and seasonality influences on Spanish electricity load. Energy Econ 24(1):55–70
Perry A (2006) Will predicted climate change compromise the sustainability of Mediterranean tourism. J Sustain Tour 12(4):367–375
Smeral E, Wüger M (2005) Does complexity matter? Methods for improving forecasting accuracy in tourism: the case of Austria. J Travel Res 44(1):100–110
Smith K (1990) Tourism and climate change. Land Use Policy 7:176–180
Song H, Li G (2008) Tourism demand modeling and forecasting—a review of recent research. Tour Manage 29:203–220
Subak S, Palutikof J, Agnew M, Watson S, Bentham C, Cannel M, Hulme M, McNally S, Thornes J, Waughray D, Woods J (2000) The impact of the anomalous weather of 1995 on the UK Economy. Clim Change 44:1–26
Trigo R, Palutikof J (1999) Simulation of daily temperatures for climate change scenarios over Portugal: a neural network model approach. Clim Res 13:45–59
Turner L, Kulendran N, Fernando H (1997) The use of composite national indicators for tourism forecasting. Tour Econ 3(4):309–317
UKCIP (2002) Climate change scenarios for the United Kingdom: the UKCIP02 scientific report
UNWTO (2008) UNWTO world tourism barometer January 2008. World Tourism Organization, Madrid
UNWTO (2009) Tourism highlights edition 2009. World Tourism Organization, Madrid
Witt SF, Witt CA (1995) Forecasting tourism demand: a review of empirical research. Int J Forecast 11:447–475
WTTC (2009) The 2009 travel & tourism economic impact. Executive summary. World Travel and Tourism Council, London. Available at: http://www.wttc.org/bin/pdf/original_pdf_file/exec_summary_2009.pdf
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Rosselló-Nadal, J., Riera-Font, A. & Cárdenas, V. The impact of weather variability on British outbound flows. Climatic Change 105, 281–292 (2011). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-010-9873-y
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-010-9873-y