Abstract
This paper provides a preliminary evaluation of the Regional Impact Simulator—a user-friendly, PC-based tool designed with stakeholders for stakeholders wishing to assess the effects of climate and/or socio-economic change on the important sectors and resources in the UK at a regional scale, in particular, impacts to coastal and river flooding, agriculture, water resources and biodiversity. While integrated assessments are relatively new, simulators that help stakeholders visualize and think about potential changes in the environment or society at a regional scale are very new. An earlier project, RegIS1, was the first local/regional integrated assessment conducted in the UK. It developed a method for engaging stakeholders in a “stakeholder-led” integrated assessment process. The RegIS2 project developed a simulation tool and followed the same “stakeholder-led” principle in designing and testing the tool. The role of stakeholders in informing the design of the simulator is discussed here, as is a stakeholder evaluation survey on its success in meeting its objectives. We also reflect on the need and desire of stakeholders to have such a tool. And because the Steering Committee – made up of stakeholders – was so invaluable in ensuring the usefulness of research outputs, a series of Steering Committee ‘rules’ is proposed intending to maximise the benefits of this valuable resource. Finally, we outline how our experience with the ‘Regional Impact Simulator’ serves as a test-bed for further studies of stakeholder-led, regional, integrated assessment.
Article PDF
Similar content being viewed by others
Avoid common mistakes on your manuscript.
References
Adger WN, Arnell NW, Tompkins EL (2005) Successful adaptation to climate change across scales. Glob Environ Change 15:77–86
Audsley E, Pearn KR, Harrison PA, Berry PM (2008) The impact of future socio-economic and climate changes on agricultural land use and the wider environment in East Anglia and North West England using a metamodel system. Clim Change. doi:10.1007/s10584-008-9450-9
Carmichael J, Tansey J, Robinson J (2004) An integrated assessment modelling tool. Glob Environ Change 14:171–183
Demeritt D, Landgon D (2004) The UK climate change programme and communication with local authorities. Glob Environ Change 14:325–336
Dempsey R, Fisher A (2005) Consortium for atlantic regional assessment: information tools for community adaptation to changes in climate and land use. Risk Anal 25(6):1495–1509
Dessai S, Hulme M (2004) Does climate adaptation policy need probabilities. Climate Policy 4:107–128
DETR (Department for Environment, Transport and the Regions) (2000) Climate change: the UK programme. HMSO, London, p 210
Dittrich Y, Lindeberg L (2004) How use-oriented development can take place. Inf Softw Technol 46:603–617
Hanson CE, Palutikof JP, Dlugolecki A, Giannakopoulos C (2006) Bridging the gap between science and the stakeholder: the case of climate change research. Clim Res 31(1):121–133
Harrison PA, Berry PM, Henriques C, Holman IP (2008) Impacts of socio-economic and climate change scenarios on wetlands: linking water resource and biodiversity meta-models. Clim Change. doi:10.1007/s10584-008-9454-5
Henriques C, Holman IP, Audsley E, Pearn K (2008) An interactive multi-scale integrated assessment of future regional water availability for agricultural irrigation in East Anglia and North West England. Clim Change. doi:10.1007/s10584-008-9459-0
Holman I.P, de Vries TT (eds) (2005) Development of a metamodel tool for regional integrated climate change management (RegIS2). Final report for Project No. CC0362, Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, London
Holman IP, Loveland PJ (eds) (2001) Regional climate change impacts in East Anglia and the North West (the RegIS project). Final report of Project No. CC0337, Ministry for Agriculture, Fisheries and Food, London. Available at: www.ukcip.org.uk
Holman IP, Rounsevell MDA, Shackley S, Harrison PA, Nicholls RJ, Berry PM, Audsley E (2005a) A regional, multi-sectoral and integrated assessment of the impacts of climate and socio-economic change in the UK: I Methodology. Clim Change 71:9–41
Holman IP, Nicholls RJ, Berry PM, Harrison PA, Audsley E, Shackley S, Rounsevell MDA (2005b) A regional, multi-sectoral and integrated assessment of the impacts of climate and socio-economic change in the UK: II Results. Clim Change 71:43–73
Holman IP, Rounsevell MDA, Cojacaru G, Shackley S, McLachlan C, Audsley E, Berry PM, Fontaine C, Harrison PA, Henriques C, Mokrech M, Nicholls RJ, Pearn KR, Richards JA (2008) The concepts and development of a participatory regional integrated assessment tool. Clim Change. doi:10.1007/s10584-008-9453-6
Hulme M, Jenkins GJ, Lu X, Turnpenny JR, Mitchell TD, Jones RG, Lowe J, Murphy JM, Hassell D, Boorman P, McDonald R, Hill S (2002) Climate change scenarios for the United Kingdom: The UKCIP02 scientific report. Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, School of Environmental Sciences. University of East Anglia, Norwich, p 120
IPCC (2001) Technical summary. Climate change 2001: impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability. A report of working group II of intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press, New York, p 1000
IPCC (2007) Climate change 2007: the physical science basis. Contribution of working group I to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernment panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press, New York, p 996
Kasemir B, Schibli D, Stoll S, Jaeger CC (2000) Involving citizens in climate and energy assessments. Environment 42(3):32–42
Lempert RJ, Schlesinger ME (2000) Robust strategies for abating climate change. Clim Change 45:387–401
Lempert RJ, Schlesinger ME (2001) Climate change strategy needs to be robust. Nature 412:543–545
Merton R (1957) Manifest and latent functions in social theory and social structure. Free, Glencoe
Metroeconomica (2004) Costing the impacts of climate change in the UK: overview of guidelines. UKCIP technical report. UKCIP, Oxford
Mokrech M, Nicholls RJ, Richards JA, Henriques C, Holman IP, Shackley S (2008) Regional impact assessment of flooding under future climate and socio-economic scenarios for East Anglia and North West England. Clim Change. doi:10.1007/s10584-008-9449-2
Nakicenovic N, Swart R (eds) (2000) Special report on emissions scenarios. A special report of working group III of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, p 599
Olsson JA, Andersson L (2007) Possibilities and problems with the use of models as a communication tool in water resource management. Water Resour Manag 21(1):97–110
Pahl C (2004) Adaptive development and maintenance of user-centric software systems. Inf Softw Technol 46:973–986
Pearson RG, Dawson TP, Berry PM, Harrison PA (2002) SPECIES: A spatial valuation of climate impact on the envelope of species. Ecol Model 154(3):289–300
Pressman RS (2005) Software engineering: a practitioner’s approach. McGraw-Hill, Boston
Richards JA, Mokrech M, Berry PM, Nicholls RJ (2008) Regional assessment of climate change impacts on coastal and fluvial ecosystems and the scope for adaptation. Clim Change. doi:10.1007/s10584-008-9451-8
Rounsevell MDA, Annetts JE, Audsley E, Mayr T, Reginster I (2003) Modelling the spatial distribution of agricultural land use at the regional scale. Agric Ecosyst Environ 95(2–3):465–479
Science and Policy Associates Inc and ESYS (1996) Proposal for a UK integrated climate change impacts assessment. Report prepared for the Department of the Environment and the Environment Agency. Department of the Environment, London, p 28
Schneider SH (1997) Integrated assessment modelling of global climate change: transparent rationale tool for policy making or opaque screen hiding value-laden assumptions? Environ Model Assess 2:229–248
Shackley S (1998) Introduction to special section on the use of models in appraisal and policy-making. Impact Assess Proj Apprais 16(2):81–89
Shackley S, Deanwood R (2002) Stakeholder perceptions of climate change impacts at the regional scale: implications for the effectiveness of regional and local responses. J Environ Plan Manag 45(3):381–402
Shackley S, Deanwood R (2003) Constructing social futures for climate-change impacts and response studies: building qualitative and quantitative scenarios with the participation of stakeholders. Clim Res 24(1):71–90
Shackley S, Gough C (2002) The use of integrated assessment: an institutional analysis perspective. Tyndall Centre for climate change research working paper 14. Tyndall Centre, Norwich
Turnpenny J, Haxeltine A, O’Riordan T (2004) A scoping study of user needs for integrated assessment of climate change in the UK context: part 1 of the development of an interactive integrated assessment process. Integr Assess 4(4):283–300
UKCIP [UK Climate Impacts Programme] (2001a) Socio-economic scenarios for climate change impact assessment: a guide to their use in the UK Climate Impacts Programme. UKCIP, Oxford, p 123
UKCIP (2001b) Draft report of the RegIS Technical Workshop held at DEFRA, Nobel House, London on 26 June 2001. Unpublished UKCIP Report, Oxford, UK
Welp M (2001) The use of decision support tools in participatory river basin management. Phys Chem Earth (B) 26(7–8):535–539
Willows RI, Connell RK (eds) (2003) Climate adaptation: risk, uncertainty and decision-making. UKCIP technical report, UKCIP, Oxford
Yearley S (1999) Computer models and the public’s understand of science: a case study analysis. Soc Stud Sci 29(6):845–866
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Holman, I.P., Harman, J. Preliminary evaluation of the benefits of a participatory regional integrated assessment software. Climatic Change 90, 169–187 (2008). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-008-9455-4
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-008-9455-4