Abstract
Although there are different results from different studies, most assessments indicate that climate variability would have negative effects on agriculture and forestry in the humid and sub-humid tropics. Cereal crop yields would decrease generally with even minimal increases in temperature. For commercial crops, extreme events such as cyclones, droughts and floods lead to larger damages than only changes of mean climate. Impacts of climate variability on livestock mainly include two aspects; impacts on animals such as increase of heat and disease stress-related death, and impacts on pasture. As to forestry, climate variability would have negative as well as some positive impacts on forests of humid and sub-humid tropics. However, in most tropical regions, the impacts of human activities such as deforestation will be more important than climate variability and climate change in determining natural forest cover.
Article PDF
Similar content being viewed by others
Avoid common mistakes on your manuscript.
References
Aceituno, P.: 1988, ‘On the functioning of the southern-oscillation in the South America sector’, Monitor. Weather Rev. 116, 505–524.
Amadore, L. A., Bolhofer, W. C., Cruz, R. V., Feir, R. B., Freysinger, C. A., Guill, S., Jalal, K. F., Iglesias, A., Jose, A., Leatherman, S., Lenhart, S., Mukherjee, S. K., Smith, J., and Wisniewski, J.: 1996, ‘Climate change vulnerability and adaptation in Asia and the Pacific: Workshop summary’, Water Air Soil Pollut. 92, 1–12.
Bawa, K. S. and Dayanandan, S.: 1998, ‘Global climate change and tropical forest genetic resources’, Climatic Change 39, 473–485.
Bazzaz, F. A.: 1998, ‘Tropical forests in a future climate: changes in biological diversity and impact on the global carbon cycle’, in S. H. Schneider (ed.), Climate Change, Special Issue: Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Tropical Forest Ecosystems, Kluwer Academic Publishers, London, pp. 177–336.
Berman, A.: 1991, ‘Reproductive responses under high temperature conditions’, in Ronchi, B., et al. (eds.), Animal Husbandry in Warm Climates, EAAP Publication No. 55, EAAP, pp. 23–30.
Boonpragob, K. and Santisirisomboon, J.: 1996, ‘Modeling potential impacts of climate changes of forest area in Thailand under climate change’, Water Air Soil Pollut. 92, 107–117.
Brown, H. C. P. and Thomas, V. G.: 1990, ‘Ecological considerations for the future of food security in Africa’, in Edwards, C. A., et al. (eds.), Sustainable Agricultural Systems, Soil and Water Conservation Society, Ankeny, Iowa, pp. 353–377.
Brown, S.: 1997, Estimating Biomass and Biomass Change of Tropical Forests: A Primer, FAO Forestry Paper 134, Rome, Italy.
Buan, R. D., Maglinao, A. R., Evangelista, P. P., and Pajuelas, B. G.: 1996, ‘Vulnerability of rice and corn to climate change in the Philippines’, Water Air Soil Pollut. 92, 41–51.
Centeno, H. G. S., Balbarez, A. D., Fabellar, N. G., Kroff, M. J., and Matthews, R. B.: 1995, pp. 237–251.
Cruz, R. V. O.: 1997, in Proceedings of the Impacts of Climate Change on Tropical Ecosystems in the Consultation Meeting for the 1998 International Conference on Tropical Forests and Climate Change.
Davies, M. B. and Zabinski, C.: 1992, ‘Changes in geographical range resulting from greenhouse warming: Effects on biodiversity in forests’, in R. L. Peters and T. E. Lovejoy (eds.), Global Warming and Biological Diversity, Yale University Press, New Haven, CT, USA, pp. 297–308.
Ellery, W., Scholes, M. C., and Scholes, R. J.: 1996, ‘The distribution o sweetveld and sourveld in South Africa’s grassland biome in relation to environmental factors’, African Journal of Range and Forage Science 12, 38–45.
FAO and UNEP: 1981, ‘Forest resources of tropical africa, Asia, and the Americas’, Food and agriculture organization of the United Nations, Rome, Italy.
FAO: 1997, State of the World’s Forests 1997, U.N., Food and Agriculture Organization, Rome, Italy, p. 200.
Gregory, P., Ingram, J., Campbell, B., Goudriaan, J., Hunt, T., et al.: 1999, ‘Managed production systems’, in Walker, B., et al. (eds.), The Terrestrial Biosphere and Global Change, Cambridge University Press, UK, pp. 22–270.
Fearnside, P. M.: 1995, ‘Global warming response options in Brazil’s forest sector: comparison of project-level costs and benefits’, Biomass and Energy 8, 309–322.
Goldammer, J. G. and Price, C.: 1998, ‘Potential impacts of climate change on fire regimes in the tropics based on MAGICC and a GISS GCM-derived lightning model’, Climatic Change 39, 273–296.
Grandstaff, T. B.: 1981, ‘Shifting cultivation’,Ceres 4, 28–30.
Hahn, G. L.: 1999, ‘Dynamic responses of cattle to thermal heat loads’,J. Animal Sci. 77(2), 10–20.
Hahn, G. L. and Mader, T. L.: 1997, ‘Heat waves in relation to thermoregulation, feeding behavior, and mortality of feedlot cattle’, in Proceedings of the 5th International Livestock Environment Symposium, Minneapolis, MN, USA, pp. 563–571.
Hastenrath, S. and Greischar, L.: 1993, ‘Further work on northeast Brazil rainfall anomalies’, Journal of Climate 6, 743–758.
Holland, G. J.: 1997, ‘The maximum potential intensity of tropical cyclones’, J. Atmos. Sci. 54, 2519–2541.
Horel, J. D. and Cornejo-Garrido, A. G.: 1986, ‘Convection along the Coast of Northern Perú, during 1983: Spatial and temporal variations of clouds and rainfall’, Monitor. Weather Rev. 114, 2091–2105.
Hulme, M. (ed): 1996, Climate Change in Southern Africa: An Exploration of Some Potential Impacts and Implications in the SADC Region, Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia, Norwich, United Kingdom, p. 96.
Iglesias, L. Erda and Rosenzweig, C.: 1996, ‘Climate change in Asia: A review of vulnerability and adaptation of crop production’, Water Air Soil Pollut. 92, 13–21.
IPCC: 1996, ‘Climate change 1995: Impacts, adaptations, and mitigation of climate change: Scientific–technical analyses’, in Watson, R. T., Zinyowera, M. C., and Moss, R. H. (eds.), Contribution of Working Group II to the Second Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, USA, p. 880.
IPCC: 1998, ‘The regional impacts of climate change: An assessment of vulnerability’, in Watson, R. T., Zinyowera, M. C., and Moss, R. H. (eds.), Special Report of IPCC Working Group II, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, USA, p. 517.
IPCC: 2001, ‘Climate change 2001: Impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability’, in McCarthy, J. J., Canziani, O. F., Leary, N. A., Dokken, D. J. and White, K. S. (eds.), Contribution of Working Group II to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, USA, p. 1032.
Jallow, B. P. and Danso, A. A.: 1997, ‘Assessment of the vulnerability of the forest resources of The Gambia to climate change’, in Republic of The Gambia: Final Report of The Gambia/U.S. Country Study Program Project on Assessment of the Vulnerability of the Major Economic Sectors of The Gambia to the Projected Climate Change, Banjul, The Gambia, (unpublished).
Kirschbaum, M. U. F.: 1998, ‘The impacts of climate change on the growth and ecology of tropical forests’, in Proceedings of the International Conference on Tropical Forests and Climate Change: Status, Issues and Challenges (TFFC’98), College of Forestry and Natural Resources, University of the Philippines, Los Baños, Philippines, pp. 19–44.
Klinedinst, P. L., Wilhite, D. A., Hahn, G. L., and Hubbard, K. G.: 1993, ‘The potential effects of climate change on summer season dairy cattle milk production and reproduction’, Climatic Change 23(1), 21–36.
Kovats, R. S., Bouma, M. J., and Haines, A.: 1999, El Niño and Health, WHO/SDE/PHE/99.4, World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland, p. 48.
Kropff, M. J., Matthews, R. B., Van Laar, J. J., and Ten Berge, J. F. M.: 1995, ‘The rice model ORYZA1 and its testing’, in Matthews, R. B., Kropff, M. J., Bachelet, D. and Van Laar, H. H (eds.), Modeling the Impact of Climate Change on Rice Production in Asia, International Rice Research Institute (Philippines) and CAB International, Wallingford, Oxon, United Kingdom, pp. 27–50.
Lal, R.: 1991, ‘Myths and scientific realities of agroforestry as a strategy for sustainable management of soils in the tropics’, Adv. Soil Sci. 15, 91–137.
Lugo, A. E.: 1988, ‘The future of the forest: Ecosystem rehabilitation in the tropics’, Environment 30(7), 16–22, 41–45.
Linear, M.: 1985, ‘The tsetse war’, Ecologist 15, 27–35.
Mace, G. M., Balmford, A., and Ginsberg, J. R. (eds.): 1998, Conservation in a Changing World, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, p. 308.
Matthews, R. B., Kropff, M. J., Bachelet, D., and Van Laar, H. H.: 1995, Modeling the Impact of Climate Change on Rice Production in Asia. International Rice Research Institute (Philippines) and CAB International, Wallingford, Oxon, United Kingdom, p. 289.
National Research Council: 1993, Sustainable Agriculture and the Environment in the Humid Tropics, National Academy Press, Washington, DC, pp. 5–137.
Nieuwolt, S.: 1977, Tropical Climatology: An Introduction to the Climates of the Low Latitudes, The Gresham Press, Surrey, p. 207.
Odingo, R. S.: 1990, ‘Implications for African agriculture of the greenhouse effect’, in H. W. Scharpenseel, M. Schomker, and A. Ayoub (eds.), Soils on a Warmer Earth: Proceedings of an International Workshop in Effects of Expected Climate Change on Soil Processes in the Tropics and Subtropics, Nairobi, Kenya, Elsevier Press, New York, NY, USA. p.274.
Oechel, W. C. and Strain, B. R.: 1985, ‘Native species responses to increased carbon dioxide concentration’, in Strain, B. R. (ed.), Direct Effects of Increasing Carbon Dioxide on Vegetation, NTIS, Springfield, VA, pp. 117–154.
Oliver, J. E. and Hidore, J. J.: 1984, Climatology: An introduction, Charles E. Merrill Publishing Company and Bell & Howell Company, Columbus, Ohio, pp. 381, 189.
Oliver, John E. and Hidore, John J.: 1984, ‘Climatology’, Charles E. Merrill Publishing Company, Columbus, p. 198.
PAGASA: 2001a, Documentation and Analysis of Impacts of and Responses to Extreme Climate Events: The Agriculture Sector, PAGASA Publication, Quezon City, Philippines, 43 pp.
PAGASA: 2001b, Documentation and Analysis of Impacts of and Responses to Extreme Climate Events: The Environment Sector, PAGASA Publication, Quezon City, Philippines, 21 pp.
Parry, M., Rosenzweig, C., Iglesias, A., Fischer, G., and Livermore, M.: 1999, ‘Climate change and world food security: A new assessment’, Global Environmental Change 9, S51–S67.
Parton, W. J., Coughenour, M. B., Scurlock, J. M. O., and Ojima, D. S.: 1996, ‘Global grassland ecosystem modeling: Development and test of ecosystem models for grassland ecosystems’, in Breymeyer, A. I., et al. (eds.), Global Change: Effects on Coniferous Forests and Grasslands, Scientific Committee on Problems of the Environment (SCOPE), Chichester, NY, USA, Wiley, pp. 229–269.
Paul, B. and Rashid, H.: 1993, ‘Flood damage to rice crop in Bangladesh’, Geo. Rev. 83(2), 151–159.
Phillips, O. L.: 1997, ‘The changing ecology of tropical forests’ Biodiversity and Conservation 6, 291–311.
Pimentel, D.: 1993, ‘Climate changes and food supply’, Forum for Applied Research and Public Policy 8(4), 54–60.
Poore D., Burgess, P., Palmer, J., Rietbergen, S., and Synnott, T., et al.: 1990, ‘No timber without trees, sustainability in the tropical forest’, A Study for ITTO, Earscan Publicans, London, p. 252.
Rao, V. B., Satyamurty, P., and Brito, J. I. B.: 1986, ‘On the 1983 drought in Northeast Brazil’, J. Clim. 6, 43–51.
Rosenzweig, C., Parry, M. L., Fischer, G., and Frohberg, K.: 1993, ‘Climate change and world food supply’, Research Report No. 3, Environmental Change Unit, Oxford University, Oxford, United Kingdom, p. 28.
Rounsevell, M. D. A., Evans, S. P., and Bullick, P.: 1999, ‘Climate change and agricultural soils-impacts and adaptation’, Climate Change 43, 683–709.
Shukla, J., Nobre, C., and Sellers, P.: 1990, ‘Amazon deforestation and climate change’, Science 247, 1322–1325.
Sinha, S. K., Rai, M., and Singh, G. B.: 1998, Decline in Productivity in Punjab and Haryana: A Myth or Reality? Indian Council of Agricultural Research (ICAR) Publication, New Delhi, India, p. 89.
Skole, D. and Tucker, C.: 1993, ‘Tropical deforestation and habitat fragmentation in the Amazon: Satellite data from 1978 to 1988’, Science 260, 1905–1910.
Somaratne, S. and Dhanapala, A. H.: 1996, ‘Potential impact of global climate change on forest distribution in Sri Lanka’, Water, Air, and Soil Pollution 92, 129–135.
Solbrig, O., Goldstein, G., Medina, E., Sarmiento, G., and Silva, J. F.: 1992, ‘Responses of tropical savannas to stress and disturbance: A research approach’, in Wail, M. K. (ed.), Ecosystem Rehabilitation, vol. 2, SPB Academica Publishing, The Hague, The Netherlands, pp. 63–73.
Somaratne, S. and Dhanapala, A. H.: 1996, ‘Potential impact of global climate change on forest distribution in Sri Lanka’, Water Soil Air Pollut. 92, 129–135.
Webster, C. C. and Wilson, P. N.: 1980, Agriculture in the Tropics, Longman, New York, pp. 1–10.
Whetton, P. H. and Rutherford, I.: 1994, ‘Historical ENSO teleconnections in the eastern hemisphere’, Climate Change 28, 221–253.
Wijeratne, M. A.: 1996, ‘Vulnerability of Sri Lanka tea production to global climate change’,Water Air Soil Pollut.92, 87–94.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Zhao, Y., Wang, C., Wang, S. et al. Impacts of Present and Future Climate Variability On Agriculture and Forestry in the Humid and Sub-Humid Tropics. Climatic Change 70, 73–116 (2005). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-005-5938-8
Received:
Revised:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-005-5938-8