Abstract
Population modeling based on species’ demography makes it possible to predict the pace of an invasion and evaluate the likelihood of success of different control strategies. We modeled the initial (density-independent) rate of increase of Caulerpa taxifolia (Vahl) C. Agardh (aquarium strain), a green alga that has markedly altered marine communities where it has invaded in the Mediterranean Sea. Parameter values for patch growth (from stolon extension) and reproduction (by asexual fragmentation and reattachment) were gleaned from published studies. Only the most conservative model, invoking field growth rates and low levels of fragment reattachment (2.5 m−2 of existing patch each summer), closely matched observed increases (4–14 × annually). The most effective times for control (greatest reduction in rate of increase) were removal of established patches before summer and removal of fragments after summer. These times correspond to just before maximum growth and just after maximum reproduction, respectively. Only a combined strategy, incorporating 99% removal of all fragments and annual removal of 99% of established patches, was predicted to eliminate C. taxifolia entirely (λ < 1). This level of effort is only likely to be possible during the first few years of an invasion, arguing strongly for careful monitoring and rapid response to potential high-impact invaders.
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Ruesink, J.L., Collado-Vides, L. Modeling the Increase and Control of Caulerpa taxifolia, an Invasive Marine Macroalga. Biol Invasions 8, 309–325 (2006). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10530-004-8060-3
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10530-004-8060-3