Abstract
The diurnal temperature range (DTR) serves as a vital indicator reflecting both natural climate variability and anthropogenic climate change. This study investigates the historical and projected multitemporal DTR variations over the Tibetan Plateau. It assesses 23 climate models from phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) using CN05.1 observational data as validation, evaluating their ability to simulate DTR over the Tibetan Plateau. Then, the evolution of DTR over the Tibetan Plateau under different shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) scenarios for the near, middle, and long term of future projection are analyzed using 11 selected robustly performing models. Key findings reveal: (1) Among the models examined, BCC-CSM2-MR, EC-Earth3, EC-Earth3-CC, EC-Earth3-Veg, EC-Earth3-Veg-LR, FGOALS-g3, FIO-ESM-2-0, GFDL-ESM4, MPI-ESM1-2-HR, MPI- ESM1-2-LR, and INM-CM5-0 exhibit superior integrated simulation capability for capturing the spatiotemporal variability of DTR over the Tibetan Plateau. (2) Projection indicates a slightly increasing trend in DTR on the Tibetan Plateau in the SSP1-2.6 scenario, and decreasing trends in the SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SPP5-8.5 scenarios. In certain areas, such as the southeastern edge of the Tibetan Plateau, western hinterland of the Tibetan Plateau, southern Kunlun, and the Qaidam basins, the changes in DTR are relatively large. (3) Notably, the warming rate of maximum temperature under SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SPP5-8.5 is slower compared to that of minimum temperature, and it emerges as the primary contributor to the projected decrease in DTR over the Tibetan Plateau in the future.
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Acknowledgements
This work was supported by The Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research (STEP) program (Grant No. 2019QZKK0102), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 41975135), and the Natural Science Foundation of Sichuan, China (Grant No. 2022NSFSC1092). Qin HU is funded by the China Scholarship Council. We appreciate the availability of the CMIP6 simulation data provided by various climate simulation institutes, and the constructive comments from the two reviewers.
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Article Highlights
• Most CMIP6 models successfully capture the spatiotemporal variability of DTR over the Tibetan Plateau.
• Future projections indicate declining (slightly increasing) DTR trends under SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SPP5-8.5 (SSP1-2.6).
• The rate of increase for Tmax is slower than Tmin, which primarily contributes to the reduction in DTR.
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Zhang, S., Hu, Q., Meng, X. et al. Spatiotemporal Evaluation and Future Projection of Diurnal Temperature Range over the Tibetan Plateau in CMIP6 Models. Adv. Atmos. Sci. (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-024-3346-0
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-024-3346-0