Abstract
To quantify the relative contributions of Arctic sea ice and unforced atmospheric internal variability to the “warm Arctic, cold East Asia” (WACE) teleconnection, this study analyses three sets of large-ensemble simulations carried out by the Norwegian Earth System Model with a coupled atmosphere–land surface model, forced by seasonal sea ice conditions from preindustrial, present-day, and future periods. Each ensemble member within the same set uses the same forcing but with small perturbations to the atmospheric initial state. Hence, the difference between the present-day (or future) ensemble mean and the preindustrial ensemble mean provides the ice-loss-induced response, while the difference of the individual members within the present-day (or future) set is the effect of atmospheric internal variability. Results indicate that both present-day and future sea ice loss can force a negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation with a WACE pattern in winter. The magnitude of ice-induced Arctic warming is over four (ten) times larger than the ice-induced East Asian cooling in the present-day (future) experiment; the latter having a magnitude that is about 30% of the observed cooling. Sea ice loss contributes about 60% (80%) to the Arctic winter warming in the present-day (future) experiment. Atmospheric internal variability can also induce a WACE pattern with comparable magnitudes between the Arctic and East Asia. Ice-loss-induced East Asian cooling can easily be masked by atmospheric internal variability effects because random atmospheric internal variability may induce a larger magnitude warming. The observed WACE pattern occurs as a result of both Arctic sea ice loss and atmospheric internal variability, with the former dominating Arctic warming and the latter dominating East Asian cooling.
摘要
为了量化北极海冰和大气内部变率对冬季“暖北极,冷东亚”(WACE)模态的相对影响,本研究分析了基于挪威地球系统模式开展的三组大集合数值试验结果。三组数值试验采用了不同的海冰边界场,分别为工业革命前的海冰、当代气候的海冰以及未来全球变暖达2℃时的海冰。在每一组数值试验中,每个集合的海冰边界场条件完全一致,仅大气初始条件存在细微的差异。因此,当代海冰(或未来海冰)驱动试验的集合平均值与工业革命前海冰驱动试验的集合平均之间的差异主要反映海冰减少导致的气候效应;而单组试验中集合成员之间的差异则主要体现大气内部变率导致的气候效应。分析结果表明,当前和未来海冰消失均可导致负位相的北极涛动,使得冬季出现 WACE。在当前海冰(未来海冰)驱动的试验中,海冰减少引起的北极变暖幅度比海冰引起的东亚变冷幅度大四(十)倍以上;两组试验中,海冰引起的东亚变冷幅度约为观测结果的 30%。在当前海冰(未来海冰)驱动的试验中,海冰减少对北极冬季变暖的贡献约为 60%(80%)。大气内部变率可能导致冷、暖温度异常幅度相近的WACE模态。值得注意的是,由于随机的大气内部变率可能会导致东亚出现更大幅度的暖异常,海冰减少引起的东亚变冷很容易被大气内部变率的作用所掩盖。大集合试验的结果表明,观测到的WACE模态是北极海冰减少和大气内部变率共同作用的结果:前者主导北极变暖,后者主导东亚变冷。
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Data Availability Statement. Forcing fields for the PAMIP experiments are available from the input4MIPs data server (https://esgf-node.llnl.gov/search/input4mips/). The simulations used in this study are publicly available at https://esgf-node.llnl.gov/search/cmip6/. A detailed description of PAMIP is available from https://www.cesm.ucar.edu/projects/CMIP6/PAMIP/. The Arctic sea ice extent index can be downloaded from the National Snow and Ice Data Center: https://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index. ERA5 data can be obtained from: https://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/dataset/ecmwf-reanalysis-v5.
Code availability Scripts are available at Zenodo under the identifier https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.10047912.
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Acknowledgements
This research was supported by the Chinese-Norwegian Collaboration Projects within Climate Systems jointly funded by the National Key Research and Development Program of China (Grant No. 2022YFE0106800) and the Research Council of Norway funded project MAPARC (Grant No. 328943). We acknowledge the support from the Research Council of Norway funded project BASIC (Grant No. 325440) and the Horizon 2020 project APPLICATE (Grant No. 727862). High-performance computing and storage resources were performed on resources provided by Sigma2 - the National Infrastructure for High-Performance Computing and Data Storage in Norway (through projects NS8121K, NN8121K, NN2345K, NS2345K, NS9560K, NS9252K, and NS9034K).
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Funding Note: Open Access funding provided by University of Bergen (incl Haukeland University Hospital).
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Author contributions: Conceptualization–Shengping HE, Helge DRANGE; Data curation–Lise Seland GRAFF, Shengping He; Formal analysis–Shengping HE; Investigation–Shengping HE, Helge DRANGE; Methodology–Shengping HE, Helge DRANGE, Lise Seland GRAFF; Project administration–Shengping HE; Software–Shengping HE; Lise Seland GRAFF; Visualization–Shengping HE; Writing–original draft–Preparation, Shengping HE, Helge DRANGE; Writing–review & editing–Preparation, Shengping HE, Helge DRANGE, Tore FUREVIK, Huijun WANG, Ke FAN, Lise Seland GRAFF, Yvan J. ORSOLINI.
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This paper is a contribution to the special topic on Ocean, Sea Ice and Northern Hemisphere Climate: In remembrance of Professor Yongqi Gao’s Key Contributions.
Article Highlights
• Both present-day and future Arctic sea-ice loss can force a negative winter Arctic Oscillation which exhibits a larger magnitude in the future case.
• If only sea ice and atmospheric internal variability were considered, the former may contribute to more than 60% of winter Arctic warming.
• Compared to Arctic sea ice loss, atmospheric internal variability could contribute to more than 70% of East Asian cooling.
• A pattern of Arctic warming with a comparable magnitude of East Asian cooling is more likely induced by atmospheric internal variability.
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He, S., Drange, H., Furevik, T. et al. Relative Impacts of Sea Ice Loss and Atmospheric Internal Variability on the Winter Arctic to East Asian Surface Air Temperature Based on Large-Ensemble Simulations with NorESM2. Adv. Atmos. Sci. 41, 1511–1526 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-023-3006-9
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-023-3006-9
Key words
- Arctic sea ice loss
- warm Arctic–cold East Asia
- atmospheric internal variability
- large-ensemble simulation
- NorESM2
- PAMIP