Abstract
This study reexamines the correlation between the size and intensity of tropical cyclones (TCs) over the western North Pacific from the perspective of individual TCs, rather than the previous large-sample framework mixing up all TC records. Statistics show that the positive size-intensity correlation based on individual TCs is relatively high. However, this correlation is obscured by mixing large samples. The weakened correlation based on all TC records is primarily due to the diversity in the size change relative to the same intensity change among TCs, which can be quantitatively measured by the linear regression coefficient (RC) of size against intensity. To further explore the factors that cause the variability in RCs that weakens the size-intensity correlation when considering all TC records, the TCs from 2001 to 2020 are classified into two groups according to their RC magnitudes, within which the high-RC TCs have a larger size expansion than the low-RC TCs given the same intensity change. Two key mechanisms responsible for the RC differences are proposed. First, the high-RC TCs are generally located at higher latitudes than the low-RC TCs, resulting in higher planetary vorticity and thus higher planetary angular momentum import at low levels. Second, the high-RC TCs are susceptible to stronger environmental vertical wind shear, leading to more prolific outer convection than the low-RC TCs. The positive feedback between outer diabatic heating and boundary layer inflow favors the inward import of absolute angular momentum in the outer region, thereby contributing to a larger size expansion in the high-RC TCs.
摘 要
不同于以往混合所有热带气旋 (TC) 观测的大样本讨论框架, 本研究从单个 TC 的角度重新考察了西北太平洋热带气旋尺度与强度的关系. 统计结果表明, 以往的大样本方法, 掩盖了单个 TC 尺度与强度间较强的正相关性, 特别是发展阶段中的正相关性被低估. 以往基于大样本方法得出的尺度与强度弱相关的结论, 主要是由不同 TC 尺度-强度关系的差异导致的. 各个 TC 尺度-强度关系, 可以用其在发展阶段中尺度相对于强度的线性回归系数 (RC) 来表征. RC 定量刻画了当强度发生一定变化时, 尺度的变化情况. 为进一步探讨影响 RC 的物理因子, 本文将 2001–2020 年西北太平洋上的 TC 根据其 RC 的大小分为两组: 高 RC 组和低 RC 组. 在同样的强度增量下, 高 RC 组 TC 尺度扩张的程度比低 RC 组更显著. 根据合成分析的结果, 我们提出了两个影响 RC 差异的关键机制. 第一, 高 RC 组 TC 比低 RC 组 TC 处在更高的纬度上. 在具有更高的行星涡度的背景环境中发展, 有利于高 RC 组 TC 低层行星角动量的输入, 从而有利于其尺度的扩张. 第二, 高 RC 组 TC 所处环境的垂直风速切变更强, 在较强环境风切的影响下, 高 RC 组 TC 的对流多分布在外区. 对流中的绝热加热和边界层入流之间的正反馈有利于外区绝对角动量的输入, 从而有助于高 RC 组 TC 尺度的扩张.
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This study is supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 41975071, 42175073) and the open project of the Shanghai Typhoon Institute, China Meteorological Administration (TFJJ202003).
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• In most tropical cyclones, size and intensity correlate well, especially during the development stage.
• Changing size-intensity relationships from storm to storm impairs the overall size-intensity correlation based on a mixture of all TC records.
• Genesis latitude and environmental vertical wind shear are two major factors affecting the relationship between the size and intensity of a tropical cyclone.
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Chen, K., Chen, G. & Shi, D. Reexamination of the Relationship between Tropical Cyclone Size and Intensity over the Western North Pacific. Adv. Atmos. Sci. 39, 1956–1968 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-022-1450-6
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-022-1450-6