Abstract
Impacts of the MJO on winter rainfall and circulation in China are investigated using a real-time multivariate MJO index. Composite results using the daily rainfall anomalies and “rainy day” anomalies according to eight different MJO phases show that the MJO has considerable influence on winter rainfall in China. Rainfall anomalies show systematic and substantial changes (enhanced/suppressed) in the Yangtze River Basin and South China with the eastward propagation of the MJO convective center from the Indian Ocean to the western Pacific. When the MJO is in phase 2 and 3 (MJO convective center is located over the Indian Ocean), rainfall probability is significantly enhanced. While in phase 6 and 7 (MJO convective center is over the western Pacific), rainfall probability is significantly reduced.
MJO in winter influences the rainfall in China mainly through modulating the circulation in the subtropics and mid-high latitudes. For the subtropics, MJO influences the northward moisture transport coming from the Bay of Bengal and the South China Sea by modulating the southern trough of the Bay of Bengal and the western Pacific subtropical high. For the mid-high latitudes, the propagation of the low frequency perturbations associated with the eastward-propagating MJO convection modulate the circulation in the mid-high latitudes, e.g. the East Asian winter monsoon and the low trough over central Asia.
Article PDF
Similar content being viewed by others
Avoid common mistakes on your manuscript.
References
Barlow, M., M. Wheeler, B. Lyon, and H. Cullen, 2005: Modulation of daily precipitation over southwest Asia by the Madden-Julian oscillation. Mon. Wea. Rev., 133, 3579–3594.
Bladé, I., and D. L. Hartmann, 1995: The linear and nonlinear extratropical response of the atmosphere to tropical intraseasonal heating. J. Atmos. Sci., 52, 4448–4471.
Bond, N. A., and G. A. Vecchi, 2003: The influence of the Madden-Julian oscillation on precipitation in Oregon and Washington. Wea. Forecasting, 18, 600–613.
Carvalho, L. M., C. Jones, and B. Liebmann, 2004: The South Atlantic convergence zone: Intensity, form, persistence, and relationships with intraseasonal to interannual activity and extreme rainfall. J. Climate, 17, 88–108.
Chao, W. C., and S. J. Lin. 1994: Tropical intraseasonal oscillation, supper cloud cluster, and cumulus convection schemes. J. Atmos. Sci., 51, 1282–1297.
Chen, L. X., C. W. Zhu, W. Wang, and P. Q. Zhang, 2001: Analysis of the characteristics of 30–60 day low-frequency oscillation over Asia during 1998 SC-SMEX. Adv. Atmos. Sci., 18(4), 623–638.
Chen, W., F. G. Hans, and R. H. Huang, 2000: The interannual variability of East Asia winter monsoon and its relation to the summer monsoon. Adv. Atmos. Sci., 17(1), 48–60.
Donald, A., H. Meinke, B. Power, A. H. N. Maia, M. C. Wheeler, N. White, R. C. Stone, and J. Ribbe, 2006: Near-global impact of the Madden-Julian oscillation on rainfall. Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L09704, doi: 10.1029/2005GL025155.
Gao, H., and Coauthors, 2008: Analysis of the severe cold surge, ice-snow and frozen disasters in south China during January 2008: II. Possible climatic causes. Meteorological Monthly, 34(4), 101–106. (in Chinese)
Hendon, H. H., and B. Liebmann, 1990: The intraseasonal (30–50 day) oscillation of the Australian summer monsoon. J. Atmos. Sci., 47, 2909–2924.
Hendon, H. H, and M. L. Salby, 1994: The life cycle of the Madden-Julian oscillation. J. Atmos. Sci., 51, 2225–2237.
Higgins, R. W., and W. Shi, 2001: Intercomparison of the principal modes of interannual and intraseasonal variability of the North American Monsoon System. J. Climate, 14, 403–417.
Ho, C. H., J. H. Kim, J. H. Jeong, H. S. Kim, and D. L. Chen, 2006: Variation of tropical cyclone activity in the South Indian Ocean: El Niño-Southern Oscillation and Madden-Julian Oscillation effects. J. Geophys. Res., 111, D22101, doi: 10.1029/2006JD007289.
Jeong, J. H., B. M. Kim, C. H. Ho, and Y. Noh, 2008: Systematic variation in wintertime precipitation in East Asia by MJO-induced extratropical vertical motion. J. Climate, 21, 788–801.
Jin, F., and B. J. Hoskins, 1995: The direct response to tropical heating in a baroclinic atmosphere. J. Atmos. Sci., 52, 307–319.
Jones, C., 2000: Occurrence of extreme precipitation events in California and relationships with the Madden-Julian oscillation. J. Climate, 13, 3576–3587.
Jones, C., and B. C. Weare, 1996: The role of low-level moisture convergence and ocean latent heat fluxes in the Madden and Julian oscillation: An observational analysis using ISCCP data and ECMWF analysis. J. Climate, 9, 3086–3104.
Ju, J. H., and E. R. Zhao, 2005: Impacts of the low frequency oscillation in East Asia summer monsoon on the drought and flooding in the middle and lower valley of the Yangtze River. Journal of Tropical Meterology, 21(2), 163–171. (in Chinese)
Kalney, E., and Coauthors, 1996: The NCEP/NCAR 40-year reanalysis project. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 77, 437–471.
Kessler, W. S., M. J. McPhaden, and K. M. Weickmann, 1995: Forcing of intraseasonal Kelvin waves in the equatorial Pacific. J. Geophys. Res., 100, 10613–10631.
Knuston, T. R., and K. M. Weickmann, 1987: 30–60 day atmospheric oscillation: Composite life cyclones of convection and circulation anomalies. Mon. Wea. Rev., 115, 1407–1436.
Lau, K. M., and P. H. Chan, 1986: Aspects of the 40–50 day oscillation during the northern summer as inferred from outgoing longwave radiation. Mon. Wea. Rev., 114, 1354–1367.
Lau, K. M., and S. Shen, 1988: On the dynamics of intraseasonal oscillations and ENSO. J. Atmos. Sci., 45, 1781–1797.
Lawrence, D. M., and P. J. Webster, 2002: The boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation: Relationship between northward and eastward movement of convection. J. Atmos. Sci., 59, 1593–1606.
Li, C. Y., and Z. X. Long., 2002: intraseasonal oscillation anomalies in the tropical atmosphere and Li Nino events. Exchanges, 7(2), 12–15.
Li, C. Y., and P. L. Wu, 1990: An observational study of 30–50 day atmospheric oscillation. Part 1: Structure and propagation. Adv. Atmos. Sci., 7, 294–304.
Li, C. Y., and Y. P. Zhou, 1994: Relationship between Intraseasonal oscillation in the tropical atmosphere and ENSO. Chinese J. Geophysics, 37, 213–223.
Madden, R. A., and P. R. Julian, 1971: Detection of a 40–50 day oscillation in the zonal wind in the tropical Pacific. J. Atmos. Sci., 28, 702–708.
Madden, R. A., and P. R. Julian, 1972: Description of global scale circulation cells in the tropics with 40–50 day period. J. Atmos. Sci., 29, 1109–1123.
Madden, R. A, and P. R. Julian, 1994: Observations of the 40–50-day tropical oscillation—A review. Mon. Wea. Rev., 122, 814–837.
Maloney, E. D., and D. L. Hartmann, 1998: Frictional moisture convergence in a composite life cycle of the Madden-Julian oscillation. J. Climate., 11, 2387–2403
Maloney, E. D., and D. L. Hartmann, 2000: Modulation of eastern North Pacific hurricanes by the Madden-Julian oscillation. J. Climate, 13, 1451–1460.
Matthews, A. J., 2000: Propagating mechanisms for the Madden-Julian Oscillation. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 126, 2637–2651.
Mu, M. Q., and C. Y. Li, 2000: The onset of summer monsoon over the South China Sea in 1998 and action of atmospheric intraseasonal oscillation. Climatic and Environmental Research, 5, 375–387. (in Chinese)
Paegle, J. N, L. A. Byerle, and K. C. Mo, 2000: Intraseasonal modulation of South American summer precipitation. Mon. Wea. Rev., 128, 837–850.
Rui, H., and B. Wang, 1990: Development characteristics and dynamic structure of tropical intraseasonal convection anomalies. J. Atmos. Sci.,. 47, 357–379.
Salby, M. L., and H. H. Hendon, 1994: Intraseasonal behavior of clouds, temperature, and motion in the tropics. J. Atmos. Sci., 51, 2207–2224.
Sperber, K. R., 2004: Propagation and the vertical structure of the Madden-Julian Oscillation. Mon. Wea. Rev., 131, 3018–3037.
Ting, M., and P. D. Sardeshmukh, 1993: Factors determining the extratropical response to equatorial diabatic heating anomalies. J. Atmos. Sci., 50, 907–918.
Wang, L., and Coauthors, 2008: Analysis of the severe cold Surge, ice-snow and frozen disasters in South China during January 2008: I. Climatic features and its impacts. Meteorological Monthly, 34(4), 95–100. (in Chinese)
Wheeler, M. C., and H. H. Hendon, 2004: An all-season real-time multivariate MJO Index: Development of an index for monitoring and prediction. Mon. Wea. Rev., 132, 1917–1932.
Wheeler, M. C., and J. L. McBride, 2005: Australian-Indonesian monsoon. Intraseasonal Variability in the Atmosphere Ocean Climate System, Praxis, Springer, 125–173.
Wheeler, M. C., H. H. Hendon, C. Sam, M. Holger, and D. Alexis, 2009: Impacts of the Madden-Julian Oscillation on Australian rainfall and circulation. J. Climate, 22(6), 1482–1498.
Wilks, D. S., 2006: Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences. Academic Press, 648pp.
Woolnough, S. J., J. M. Slingo, and B. J. Hoskins, 2000: The relationship between convection and sea surface temperature on intraseasonal timescales. J. Climate, 13, 2086–2104.
Xu, G. Q., Q. G. Zhu, J. S. Xue, and J. H. He, 2004: A pilot study of propagation mechanism of precipitation low-frequency variation over China in 1998. J. Atmos. Sci., 28(5), 736–746. (in Chinese)
Yang, H., and C. Y. Li, 2003: The relation between atmospheric intraseasonal oscillation and summer severe flood and drought in Changjiang-Huaihe river basin. Adv. Atmos. Sci., 20(4), 540–553.
Yeo, I. K., and R. A. Johnson, 2000: A new family of power transformation to improve normality or symmetry. Biometrika, 87, 954–959.
Zhang, C., 2005: Madden-Julian oscillation. Rev. Geophys., 43, 1–36.
Zhang, C., and J. Gottschalck, 2002: SST anomalies of ENSO and the Madden-Julian Oscillation in the equatorial Pacific, J. Climate, 15, 2429–2445.
Zhang, L. N., B. Z. Wang, and Q. C. Zeng, 2009: Impacts of the Madden-Julian Oscillation on Summer Rainfall in Southeast China. J. Climate, 22, 201–216.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Jia, X., Chen, L., Ren, F. et al. Impacts of the MJO on winter rainfall and circulation in China. Adv. Atmos. Sci. 28, 521–533 (2011). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-010-9118-z
Received:
Revised:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-010-9118-z