Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

Looking forward to a general theory on population aging

  • Congres
  • Published:
Tijdschrift Gerontologie en Geriatrie

Samenvatting

The main theories on population aging based on recent data on human longevity, life expectancy, morbidity changes, disability trends, and mortality decrease are presented and discussed within their own geographic, cultural, socioeconomic, and medical contexts. The complex interactions between all these components do not facilitate trend forecasting of aging population (healthy aging versus disability pandemic).

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Subscribe and save

Springer+ Basic
$34.99 /Month
  • Get 10 units per month
  • Download Article/Chapter or eBook
  • 1 Unit = 1 Article or 1 Chapter
  • Cancel anytime
Subscribe now

Buy Now

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

References

  • Freedman VA, Aykan H, Martin LG. Another look at aggregate changes in severe cognitive impairment: further investigation into the cumulative effects of three survey design issues. J Gerontol Soc Sci. 2002;57B:S126–S131.

    Google Scholar 

  • Robine JM, Romieu I, Michel JP. Trends in health expectancies. In: Robine JM, Jagger C, Mathers CD, et al. Determining health expectancies. Chichester: John Wiley; 2002:75–101.

    Chapter  Google Scholar 

  • Grundy E. The health and health care of older adults in England and Wales, 1841-1994. In: Charlton J, Murphy M, eds. The Health of Adult Britain 1841–1994. Vols. 1 and 2. London: The Stationery Office; 1997.

    Google Scholar 

  • Zimmer Z, Martin LG, Chang MC. Changes in functional limitation and survival among older Taiwaneses, 1993 and 1996. Pop Stud. 2002;56:265–276.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Notestein FW. Demographic studies of selected areas of rapid growth. In: Proceedings of the Round Table on Population Problems. 22nd Annual Conference of the Milbank Memorial Fund. New York: Milbank Memorial Fund; 1945.

  • Omran AR. The epidemiological transition: a theory of epidemiology of population change. Milbank Mem Fund Q. 1971;49:509–538.

    Article  CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Strehler BL. Implications of aging research for society. Fed Proc. 1975;34:5–8.

    CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Gruenberg EM. The failures of success. Milbank Mem Fund Q Health Soc. 1977;55:3–24.

    Article  CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Fries JF. Aging, natural death, and the compression of morbidity. N Engl J Med. 1980;303:130–135.

    CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Manton KG. Changing concepts of morbidity and mortality in the elderly population. Milbank Mem Fund Q Health Soc. 1982;60:183–244.

    Article  CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Carey JR. Longevity, the biology and demography of life span. Princeton: University Press; 2003.

    Google Scholar 

  • Gavrilov LA, Gavrilova NS. The quest for a general theory of aging and longevity. Science of Aging Knowledge Environment. www.sageke.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/sageke;2003/28/re5

  • Oeppen J, Vaupel JW. Broken limits to life expectancy. Science. 2002;296:1029–1031.

    Article  CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • White KM. Longevity advances in high-income countries, 1955-96. Pop Dev Rev. 2002;28:59–76.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Vaupel JW, Carey JR, Christensen K, et al. Biodemographic trajectories of longevity. Science. 1998;280:855–860.

    Article  CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Heiniger M, Wanders AC. Portrait Démographique de la Suisse. Neuchâtel: Office Fédéral de la Statistique; 2002.

    Google Scholar 

  • Ministry of Health and Welfare. Abridged Life Tables for Japan 2001. Statistics and Information Department, Minister’s Secretariat, Ministry of Health and Welfare; 2001.

  • Gruenberg EM. Epidemiology of senile dementia. In: Epidemiology of Aging. Washigton, DC: National Institutes of Health; 1980.

  • Kramer M. The rising pandemic of mental disorders and associated chronic diseases and disabilities. Acta Psychiatr Scand. 1980;62(Suppl. 285):282–297.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Verbrugge LM. Longer life but worsening health? Trends in health and mortality of middle-aged and older persons. Milbank Mem Fund Q Health Soc. 1984;62:475–519.

    Article  CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Olshansky SJ, Rudberg MA, Carnes BA, et al. Trading off longer life for worsening health: the expansion of morbidity hypothesis. J Aging Health. 1991;3:194–216.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fuchs VR. ‘Though much is taken’: reflections on aging, health and medical care. Milbank Mem Fund Q Health Soc. 1984;62:143–166.

    Article  CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Crimmins EM. Are Americans healthier as well as longer-lived? J Insurance Med. 1990;22:89–92.

    Google Scholar 

  • Robine JM. Disability-free life expectancy. In: Robine JM, Blanchet M, Dowd JE. Health Expectancy. London: HMSO; 1992:1–22.

    Google Scholar 

  • Nusselder WJ. Compression of morbidity. In: Robine JM, Jagger C, Mathers CD, et al. Determining health expectancies. Chichester: John Wiley; 2002:35–58.

    Chapter  Google Scholar 

  • World Health Organization. The Uses of Epidemiology in the Study of the Elderly. Report of a WHO Scientific Group on the Epidemiology of Aging. Geneva: WHO; 1984 (Technical Report Series 706).

  • Robine JM, Mormiche P, Cambois E. Evolution des courbes de survie totale, sans maladie chronique et sans incapacité en France de 1981 à 1991: application d’un modèle de l’OMS. Ann Demogr Hist (Paris). 1996:99–115.

  • Perenboom RJM, Van Oyen H, Mutafova M. Health expectancies in European countries. In: Robine JM, Jagger C, Mathers CD, et al. Determining health expectancies. Chichester: John Wiley; 2002:359–376.

    Chapter  Google Scholar 

  • Lamb VL. Health expectancy research in North American countries. In: Robinr JM, Jagger C, Mathers CD, et al. Determining health expectancies. Chichester: John Wiley; 2002:377–390.

    Chapter  Google Scholar 

  • Saito Y, Qiao X, Jitapunkul S. Health expectancy in Asian countries. In: Robine JM, Jagger C, Mathers CD, et al. Determining health expectancies. Chichester: John Wiley; 2002:289–317.

    Chapter  Google Scholar 

  • Davis P, Mathers CD, Graham P. Health expectancy in Australia and New Zealand. In: Robine JM, Jagger C, Mathers CD, et al. Determining health expectancies. Chichester: John Wiley; 2002:391–408.

    Chapter  Google Scholar 

  • Robine JM, Romieu I, Cambois E. Health expectancy indicators. Bull WHO. 1999;77:181–185.

    CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Kelly S, Baker A. Healthy life expectancy in Great Britain, 1980-96, and its use as an indicator in United Kingdom government strategies. Hlth Stat Q. 2000;7:32–37.

    Google Scholar 

  • Aromaa A, Koskinen S, Huttunen J. Health in Finland. Helsinki: National Public Health Institute; 1999.

    Google Scholar 

  • Robine JM, Mormiche P, Sermet C. Examination of the causes and mechanisms of the increase in disability-free life expectancy. J Aging Health. 1998;10:171–191.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Crimmins EM, Saito Y. Changes in the prevalence of diseases among older Americans: 1984-1994. Demogr Res. 2000;3:9.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Freedman VA, Martin LG. Contribution of chronic conditions to aggregate changes in old-age functioning. Am J Public Health. 2000;90:1755–1760.

    Article  CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Freedman VA, Martin LG. Understanding trends in functional limitations among older Americans. Am J Public Health. 1998;88:1457–1462.

    Article  CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Freedman VA, Martin LG. The role of education in explaining and forecasting trends in functional limitations among older Americans. Demography. 1999;36:461–473.

    Article  CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Peres K, Barberger-Gateau B. Evolution de l’incapacité entre 75 et 84 ans. Gerontol Soc. 2001;98:49–64.

    Google Scholar 

  • Saucher A, Lafontaine P. Prévalence et gravité de l’incapacité dans la population québécoise. In: Enquête Québecoise sur les Limitations d’Activité 1998. Ste-Foy: Les Publications du Québec ; 2001.

  • Grundy E, Ahlburg D, Ali M, et al. Disability in Great Britain. London: HMSO, Department of Social Security; 1999 (Research Report 94).

    Google Scholar 

  • Portrait F, Alessie R, Deeg D. Does physical disability of older individuals improve in the nineties. In: 14th Work Group Meeting REVES, Hammamet, Tunisia, April 2002. http://www.prw.le.ac.uk/reves/

  • Desai M, Pratt LA, Lentzner H, et al. Trends in vision and hearing among older Americans. Aging Trends. 2001;2:1–8.

    PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Robine JM, Mormiche P. Estimation de la valeur de l’espérance de vie sans incapacité en France en 1991. Solidarité Santé. Etudes Statistiq. 1994;1:17–36.

    Google Scholar 

  • Manton KG, Corder LS, Stallard E. Estimates of change in chronic disability and institutional incidence and prevalence rates in the U.S. elderly population from the 1982, 1984 and 1989 National Long Term Care Survey. J Gerontol B Psychol Sci Soc Sci. 1993;48:S153–S166.

    CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Manton KG, Corder LS, Stallard E. Chronic disability trends in elderly United States populations: 1982-1994. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 1997;94:2593–2598.

    Article  CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Freedman VA, Soldo JS, eds. Trends in Disability at Older Ages. Washington, DC: National Academy Press; 1994.

    Google Scholar 

  • Waidmann T, Bound J, Schoenbaum M. The illusion of failure: trends in self-reported health of the US elderly. Milbank Q. 1995;73:253–287.

    Article  CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Crimmins EM, Saito Y, Reynolds SL. Further evidence on recent trends in prevalence and incidence of disability among older Americans from two sources: the LSOA and the NHIS. J Gerontol Soc Sci. 1997;52B:S59­–S71.

    Google Scholar 

  • Waidmann TA, Liu K. Disability trends among elderly persons and implications for the future. J Gerontol Soc Sci. 2000;55B:S298–S307.

    Google Scholar 

  • Manton KG, Gu X. Changes in the prevalence of chronic disability in the United States black and non-black population above age 65 from 1982 to 1999. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2001;98:6354–6359.

    Article  CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Liao Y, McGee DL, Cao G, et al. Recent changes in the health status of the older US population: findings from the 1984 and 1994 supplement on aging. J Am Geriatr Soc. 2001;49:443–449.

    Article  CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Preston SH. Cohort succession and the future of the oldest old. In: Suzman RM, Willis DP, Manton KG. The Oldest Old. Oxford: Oxford University Press; 1992:50–57.

    Google Scholar 

  • Cutler DM. The reduction in disability among the elderly. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2001;98:6546–6547.

    Article  CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Costa D. Changing chronic disease rates and long-term declines in functional limitation among older men. Demography. 2002;39:119–137.

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Freedman VA, Aykan H, Martin LG. Aggregate changes in severe cognitive impairment among older Americans: 1993 and 1998. J Gerontol Soc Sci. 2001;56B:S100–S101.

    Google Scholar 

  • Freedman VA, Martin LG, Schoeni RF. Recent trends in disability and functioning among older adults in the United States. JAMA. 2002;288:3137–3146.

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Delbes C, Gaymu J. Aspects démographiques du grand âge. Gerontol Soc. 2001;98:11–22.

    Google Scholar 

  • Sahyoun NR, Pratt LA, Lentzner H, et al. The changing profile of nursing home residents: 1985-1997. Aging Trends. 2001;4:1–8.

    PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Martelin EJ. Toimintakykyisen elinajan viimeaikaiset muutokset ja kehitysnäkymät Suomessa. Kansallinen Foorumi: Aktiivinen ja elämään suuntautuva vanheneminen. 11 February 2002.

    Google Scholar 

  • Lalive D’epinay C, Bickel JF, Maystre C, et al. Vieillesses au fil du temps 1979-1994. Lausanne: Réalités sociales; 2000.

    Google Scholar 

  • Schoeni RF, Freedman VA, Wallace RB. Persistent, consistent, widespread, and robust? Another look at recent trends in old-age disability. J Gerontol Soc Sci. 2001;56B:S206–S208.

    Google Scholar 

  • Saito Y. The changes in the level of disability in Japan: 1992-1998. In: XXIV IUSSP General Population Conference, Salvador, August 2001.

  • Crimmins EM. Mixed trends in population health among older adults. J Gerontol Soc Sci. 1996;51B:S223–S225.

    Google Scholar 

  • Spiers N, Jagger C, Clarke M. Physical function and perceived health: cohort differences and interrelationships in older people. J Gerontol Soc Sci. 1996;51B:S226–S233.

    Google Scholar 

  • Doblhammer G, Kytir J. Compression or expansion of morbidity? Trends in healthy-life expectancy in the elderly Austrian population between 1978 and 1998. Soc Sci Med. 2001;52:385–391.

    Article  CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Crimmins EM, Ingegner DG. Trends in health among the American population. Paper prepared for the Pension Research Council Symposium, 1991.

  • Crimmins EM, Saito Y. Trends in healthy life expectancy in the United States 1970-1990: gender, racial, and educational differences. Soc Sci Med. 2001;52:1629–1641.

    Article  CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Myers G, Lamb V. Theoretical perspectives on healthy life expectancy. In: Robine JM, Mathers CD, Bone MR, et al., eds. Calculation of Health Expectancies: Harmonization, Consensus Achieved and Future Perspectives: 6th REVES International Workshop, Montpellier, October 1992. Montrouge: John Libbey Eurotext; 1993:109–119.

    Google Scholar 

  • Olshansky SJ, Ault AB. The fourth stage of the epidemiologic transition: the age of delayed degenerative diseases. Milbank Q. 1986;64:355–391.

    Article  CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Williamson Jeffrey G. Demographic changes, economic growth, and inequality. In: Birdsall N, Kelley AC, Sinding SW, eds. Population Matters. Oxford: Oxford University Press; 2001.

    Google Scholar 

  • Birdsall N, Sinding SW. How and why population matters: new findings, new issues. In: Birdsall N, Kelley AC, Sinding SW, eds. Population Matters. Oxford: Oxford University Press; 2001.

    Chapter  Google Scholar 

  • Vallin J. The end of the demographic transition: relief or concern? Pop Dev Rev. 2002;28:105–109.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Jeune B. In search of the first centenarians. In: Jeune B, Vaupel JW, eds. Exceptional Longevity: From Prehistory to the Present. Odense: Odense University Press; 1995:11–24 (Odense Monographs on Population Aging, 2).

    Google Scholar 

  • Vaupel JW, Jeune B. The emergence and proliferation of centenarians. In: Jeune B, Vaupel JW, eds. Exceptional longevity: from prehistory to the present. Odense: Odense University Press; 1995:109–116 (Odense Monographs on Population Aging, 2).

    Google Scholar 

  • Robine JM, Saito Y, Jagger C. The emergence of extremely old people: the case of Japan. Exp Gerontol. 2003;38:735–739.

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Wilmoth JR, Robine JM. The world trend in maximum life span. Pop Dev Rev. 2003;29(Suppl):239–257.

    Google Scholar 

  • Robine JM, Vaupel JW. Emergence of super-centenarians in low-mortality countries. North Am Actuarial J. 2002;6:54–63.

    Google Scholar 

  • Myers GC, Lamb VL, Agree EM. Patterns of disability change associated with the epidemiological transition. In: Robine JM, Jagger C, Mathers CD, et al. Determining health expectancies. Chichester: John Wiley; 2002:59–74.

    Chapter  Google Scholar 

  • Wang Z. Age validation, demographic characteristics and functional status among Chinese centenarians. University of Southern Denmark, Faculty of Health Sciences; 2000.

  • Vita AJ, Terry RB, Hubert HB, et al. Aging, health risks, and cumulative disability. N Engl J Med. 1998;338:1035–1041.

    Article  CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Ferrucci L, Izmirlian G, Leveille SG, et al. Smoking, physical activity and active life expectancy. Am J Epidemiol. 1999;149:645–653.

    CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Nusselder WJ, Looman CWN, Marang Van De Mheen PJ, et al. Smoking elimination produces compression of morbidity. J Epidemiol Community Health. 2000;54:566–574.

    Article  CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Hubert HB, Bloch DA, Oehlert JW, et al. Lifestyle habits and compression of morbidity. J Gerontol Med Sci. 2002;57A:M347–M51.

    Google Scholar 

  • Fries JF. Reducing disability in older age. JAMA. 2002;288:3164–3166.

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Report: Healthy life expectancy in Great Britain, 1999. Health Stat Q. 2002;15:60–63.

  • Fried PL, Tangen CM, Walston J, et al. Frailty in older adults: evidence for a phenotype. J Gerontol Med Sci. 2001;56A:M146–M156.

    Google Scholar 

  • Gavrilov LA, Gavrilova NS. The reliability theory of aging and longevity. J Theor Biol. 2001;213:527–545.

    Article  CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Robine JM. Life course, environmental change, and life span. Pop Dev Rev. 2003;29(Suppl):229–238.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kannisto V. Mode and dispersion of the length of life. Population. 2001;13:159–171.

    Google Scholar 

  • Robine JM. Redefining the stages of the epidemiological transition by a study of the dispersion of life spans: the case of France. Population. 2001;13:173–194.

    Google Scholar 

  • Meslé F, Vallin J. Transition sanitaire: tendances et perspectives. Médecine/Sciences. 2000;16:1161–1171.

    Google Scholar 

  • Allaire SH, LaValley MP, Evans SR, et al. Evidence for decline in disability and improved health among persons aged 55 to 70 years: the Framingham Heart Study. Am J Publ Health. 1999;89:1678–1683.

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. www.bsl.nl/shop/tijdschrift-voor-gerontologie-en-geriatrie-0167-9228.html

       

Authors
  1.    
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

About this article

Cite this article

 ,  . Looking forward to a general theory on population aging. GEEG 37, 209–217 (2006). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF03074801

Download citation

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF03074801

Search

Navigation