Abstract
Growth Rate Convergence Reconsidered. —While convergence properties lie at the heart of the endogenous-exogenous growth debate, the empirical literature on convergence to date remains ambiguous. Results appear to be particularly sensitive to the choice of income per capita or labor productivity as dependent variable. The paper shows that the dependence reflects a measurement error arising from the interdependence of human capital accumulation, labor force participation rates and development levels. Estimation of a corrected convergence equation yields results generally supporting convergence except in the manufacturing sector.
Zusammenfassung
Nochmals zur Konvergenz der Wachstumsraten. —Während die theoretischen Eigenschaften der Konvergenz im Mittelpunkt der Debatte um endogenes und exogenes Wachstum stehen, bleibt die empirische Literatur zur Konvergenz bisher unklar. Die Ergebnisse scheinen besonders davon abzuhängen, ob das Pro-Kopf-Einkommen oder die Arbeitsproduktivität in der Beziehung als abhängige Variable gewählt wird. Der Verfasser zeigt, daß die Beziehung einen Meßfehler wiedergibt, der aus der Interdependenz von Humankapitalakkumulation, Erwerbsquote und Entwicklungsniveau resultiert. Die Schätzung einer korrigierten Konvergenzgleichung bringt Ergebnisse, die die Konvergenz generell bestätigen-allerdings nicht im gewerblichen Sektor.
Article PDF
Similar content being viewed by others
Avoid common mistakes on your manuscript.
References
Azariadis, Costas, Allan Drazen, “Threshold Externalities in Economic Development”.The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 105, 1990, pp. 501–526.
Barro, Robert, “Economic Growth in a Cross Section of Countries”.The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 106, 1991, pp. 407–443.
—,Gary Becker, “A Reformulation of the Economic Theory of Fertility”.The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 103, 1988, pp. 1–25.
—,—, “Fertility Choice in a Model of Economic Growth”.Econometrica, Vol. 57,1989, pp. 481–501.
-,Jong-Wha Lee,Losers and Winners in Economic Growth. NBER Working paper No. 4341. Cambridge, Mass., 1993.
—,Xavier Sala-i-Martin, “Convergence”.Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 100, 1992, pp. 223–251.
—,Holger Wolf,Data Appendix for Growth Dataset. NBER. Washington, D.C., 1989, mimeo.
Baumol, William, “Productivity Growth, Convergence, and Welfare: What the Long-Run Data Show”.The American Economic Review, Vol. 76, 1986, pp. 1072–1085.
Cass, David, “Optimum Growth in an Aggregative Model of Capital Accumulation”.Review of Economic Studies, Vol. 32, 1965, pp. 233–240.
De Long, Brad, “Productivity Growth, Convergence, and Welfare: Comment”.The American Economic Review, Vol. 78, 1988, pp. 1138–1154.
Dowrick, Steve, Duc-Tho Nguyen, “OECD Comparative Economic Growth 1950-85: Catch-Up and Convergence”.The American Economic Review, Vol. 79, 1989, pp. 1010–1030.
Fischer, Stanley,The Role of Macroeconomic Factors in Growth. NBER Working Paper No. 4565. Cambridge, Mass., 1993.
Grier, Kevin, Gordon Tullock, “An Empirical Analysis of Cross-National Economic Growth 1951-80”.Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol.24, 1989, pp. 259–276.
Helliwell, John,Empirical Linkages Between Democracy and Growth. NBER Working Paper No. 4066. Cambridge, Mass., 1992.
King, Robert G., Charles Plosser, Sergio T. Rebelo, “Production, Growth and Business Cycles” (Parts I and II).Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol. 21,1988, pp. 309–341.
Levine, Ross, David Renelt, “A Sensitivity Analysis of Cross-Country Growth Regressions”.The American Economic Review, Vol. 82, 1992, pp. 942–963.
Lucas, Robert J., Jr., “On the Mechanics of Economic Development”.Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol. 22, 1988, pp. 3–42.
Mankiw, Gregor, David Romer, David Weil, “A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth”.The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 107, 1991, pp. 407–437.
Quah, Danny,International Patterns of Growth. Massachusetts Inst. of Technology. Cambridge, Mass., 1989, mimeo.
Ramsey, Frank, “A Mathematical Theory of Saving”.The Economic Journal, Vol. 38, 1928, pp. 543–559.
Romer, Paul M., “Increasing Returns and Long-Run Growth”.Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 94, 1986, pp. 1002–1037.
—, “Endogenous Technological Change”.Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 98, 1990, pp. S71 -S102.
Sala-i-Martin, Xavier,Lecture Notes on Economic Growth I and II. NBER Working Papers No. 3563 and 3564. Cambridge, Mass., 1990.
Solow, Robert, “A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth”.The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 70, 1956, pp. 65–94.
Streissler, Erich, “Growth Models as Diffusion Processes: II. Empirical Distributions”.Kyklos, Vol. 32, 1979, pp. 571–586.
Summers, Robert, Alan Heston, “A New Set of International Comparisons of Real Product and Price Levels Estimates for 130 Countries, 1950–1985”.The Review of Income and Wealth, Vol. 34, 1988, pp. 1–25.
Wolf, Holger, “Wachstumstheorien im Widerstreit: Konvergenz oder Divergenz?”Wist, Vol. 23, No. 4, April 1994.