Abstract
Molecular clocks can be evaluated by comparing absolute rates of evolution and by performing relative-rate tests. Typically, calculations of absolute rates are based on earliest observed occurrences in the fossil record. Relative-rate tests, on the other hand, merely require an unambiguous outgroup. A major disadvantage of relative-rate tests is their insensitivity to concomitant and equal rate changes in all lineages. Apparent differences in absolute rates, in turn, may be artifacts that are attributable to an incomplete fossil record.
Recently developed methods in quantitative biostratigraphy recognize the incompleteness of the fossil record and allow us to place confidence intervals on the endpoints of taxon ranges. These methods are applicable to taxa whose fossil records are of markedly different quality. When we extend these methods and integrate molecular and paleontologic data, we can test the null hypothesis that seemingly disparate rates of molecular evolution are in fact equal under the simplifying assumption that fossils are randomly and independently distributed over their temporal ranges and that fossils can be accurately placed in a phylogenetic context. We can also estimate the range of ticking rates, if any, that are compatible with known fossil data. Ultimately, more accurate rate estimates for widely divergent taxa should allow for more meaningful comparisons of evolutionary rates.
DNA hybridization data for monotremes and marsupials suggest a 17-fold difference for 14 different rate calculations with a mean value of approximately 1% divergence per million years. Variation among marsupials is sevenfold. However, when we apply appropriate statistical tests and make additional allowances for fossils of uncertain taxonomic assignment, etc., all 14 rates are compatible with a molecular clock ticking at approximately 0.4% divergence per million years. In addition, this analysis brings relative- and absolute-rate tests into accord.
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Springer, M.S. Molecular clocks and the incompleteness of the fossil record. J Mol Evol 41, 531–538 (1995). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00175810
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00175810