Abstract
The possible effects of global climate change on the oceans are described through a review of the results produced by GCM's that explicitly incorporate the dynamics of the interior of world oceans. Changes at asymptotic equilibrium influence the whole water column, but equilibrium in the deep sea is reached after several thousands years. The transient response of these models after 25 years following the onset of the perturbation (doubling or quadrupling of atmospheric CO2) affects the upper layer of the oceans (<1000 m) producing an increase in temperature between 2–4 °C. Models with realistic geography, as compared with simplified ones with N-S symmetry, produce warming near the north pole but a small cooling close to the antarctic continent. The main impacts of the predicted changes upon marine ecosystems are identified within several possible scenarios. Special mention is made of the expansion/contraction of pelagic habitats, oceanic island habitats, ocean wide distributional changes and the dynamical effects upon bioproduction.
Article PDF
Similar content being viewed by others
Avoid common mistakes on your manuscript.
References
Bernal, P. A.: 1979, ‘Large-Scale Biological Events in the California Current’, CalCOFI Reports 20, 89–101.
Bernal, P. A.: 1981, ‘A Review of the Low-Frequency Response of the Pelagic Ecosystem in the California Current’, CalCOFI Reports 22, 49–62.
Brinton, E. W.: 1962, ‘The Distribution of Pacific Euphausiids’, Bull. Scripps Inst. Oceanogr. 8 (2), 51–270.
Bryan, K., Komro, F. G., Manabe, S., and Spelman, M. J.: 1982, ‘Transient Climate Response to Increasing Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide’, Science 215, 56–58.
Bryan, K. and Spelman, M. J.: 1985, ‘The Ocean's Response to a CO2-Induced Warning’, J. Geophys. Res. 90 (C6), 11679–11688.
Bryan, K., Manabe, S., and Spelman, M. J.: 1988, ‘Interhemispheric Asymmetry in the Transient Response of a Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Model to a CO2 Forcing’, J. Phys. Oceanogr. 18, 851–867.
Chelton, D. B., Bernal, P. A., and McGowan, J. A.: 1982, ‘Large-Scale Interannual Physical and Biological Interaction in the California Current’, J. Mar. Res. 40 (4), 1095–1125.
CLIMAP Project Members: 1976, ‘The Surface of the Ice-Age Earth’, Science 191 (4232), 1131–1137.
Colebrook, J. M.: 1972, ‘Changes in the Distribution and Abundance of Zooplankton in the North Sea, 1948–1969’, Symp. Zool. Soc. Lond. 29, 203–212.
Colebrook, J. M.: 1978, ‘Continuous Plankton Records: Zooplankton and Environment, North-East Atlantic and North Sea, 1948–1975’, Oceanol. Acta. 1 (1), 9–23.
Colebrook, J. M.: 1985, ‘Continuous Plankton Records: Overwintering and Annual Fluctuations in the Abundance of Zooplankton’, Mar. Biol. 84, 261–265.
Cushing, D. H.: 1982, Climate and Fisheries, Academic Press, London, 373 pp.
Hansen, J., Johnston, D., Lacis, A., Lebedeff, S., Lee, P., Rind, D., and Russell, G.: 1981, ‘Climate Impact of Increasing Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide’, Science 213, 957–966.
Harris, G. P., Davies, P., Nunez, M., and Meyers, G.: 1988, ‘Interannual Variability in Climate and Fisheries in Tasmania’, Nature 333, 754–757.
Hofmann, E. E.: 1988, ‘Plankton Dynamics on the Outer Southeastern U.S. Continental Shelf. Part III. A Coupled Physical-Biological Model’, J. Mar. Res. 46, 919–946.
Iles, T. D. and Sinclair, M.: 1982, ‘Atlantic Herring: Stock Discreteness and Abundance’, Science 215, 627–633.
Jones, P. D., Wigley, T. M. L., and Kelly, P. M.: 1982, ‘Variations in Surface Air Temperatures: Part 1. Northern Hemisphere, 1881–1980’, Mon. Wea. Rev. 110 (2), 59–70.
Kelly, P. M.: 1983, ‘Climate Change: Past Lessons and Future Prospects’, in Sharp, G. D. and Csirke, J. (eds.), Proceedings of the Expert Consultation to Examine Changes in Abundance and Species Composition of Neritic Fish Resources, San José, Costa Rica, April 1983, F.A.O. Fish. Rep. 291 (3), 595–605.
Lasker, R.: 1975, ‘Field Criteria for Survival of Anchovy Larvae: the Relation between Inshore Chlorophyll Maximum Layers and Successful First Feeding’, Fish Bull. (U.S.) 73, 453–462.
Manabe, S. and Bryan, K. J.: 1985, ‘CO2-Induced Change in a Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Model and its Paleoclimatic Implications’, J. Geophys. Res. 90 (C6), 11689–11707.
Manabe, S. and Stouffer, R. J.: 1980, ‘Sensitivity of a Global Climate Model to an Increase of CO2 Concentration in the Atmosphere’, J. Geophys. Res. 85 (C10), 5529–5554.
McCarthy, J. J.: 1985, ‘Expanding our Global Perspective of Biological Processes in the Sea’, in Malone, T. F. and Roederer, J. G. (eds.), Global Change, The Proceedings of a Symposium sponsored by the International Council of Scientific Unions (ICSU) during its 20th General Assembly in Ottawa, Canada on September 25, 1984, ICSU Pres., Cambridge University Press, London, pp. 270–277.
McGowan, J. A.: 1971, ‘Oceanic Biogeography of the Pacific’, in Funnell, B. M. and Riedel, W. R. (eds.), The Micropaleontology of Oceans, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp. 3–74.
McGowan, J. A.: 1974, ‘The Nature of Oceanic Ecosystems’, in Miller, C. B. (ed.), The Biology of the Oceanic Pacific, Oregon State University Press, Corvallis, pp. 9–28.
Neftel, A., Oeschger, H., Schander, J., Stauffer, B., and Zumbrunn, R.: 1982, ‘Ice Core Sample Measurements Give Atmospheric CO2 Content during the Past 40, 000 Yr’, Nature 295, 220–223.
Reid, J. L., Brinton, E., Fleminger, A., Venrick, E. L., and McGowan, J. A.: 1978, ‘Ocean Circulation and Marine Life’, in Charnock, H. and Deacon, G. (eds.), Advances in Oceanography, Plenum Press, New York, pp. 65–130.
Shaffer, G.: 1989, ‘A Model of Biogeochemical Cycling of Phosphorous, Nitrogen, Oxygen and Sulphur in the Ocean: One Step toward a Global Climate Model’, J. Geophys. Res. 94 (C2), 1979–2004.
Shaffer, G. and Sarmiento, J. L.: 1991, ‘Biogeochemical Cycling in the Global Ocean, Part I. A New Analytical Model with a Stratified Interior and High Latitude Dynamics’, Deep Sea. Res. (in press).
Sharp, G. D.: 1987, ‘Climate and Fisheries: Cause and Effect or Managing the Long and Short of it All’, in Payne, A. I. L., Gulland, J. A., and Brink, K. H. (eds.), The Benguela and comparable ecosystems, S. Afr. J. Mar. Sci. 5, 811–838.
Sinclair, M., Tremblay, M. J., and Bernal, P. A.: 1985, ‘El Niño events and variability in a Pacific Mackerel survival index: Support for Hjort's second hypothesis’, Can. J. Fish. Aquat. Sci. 42, 602–608.
Spelman, M. J. and Manabe, S.: 1984, ‘Influence of Oceanic Heat Transport upon the Sensitivity of a Model Climate’, J. Geophys. Res. 89 (C1), 571–586.
Steele, J. H.: 1974, The Structure of Marine Ecosystems, Harvard University Press, Cambridge, Massachussetts, 128 pp.
Stewart, R. W. and Bretherton, F. P.: 1985, ‘Atmosphere-Ocean Interaction’, in Malone, T. F. and Roederer, J. G. (eds.), Global Change, The Proceedings of a Symposium sponsored by the International Council of Scientific Unions (ICSU) during its 20th General Assembly in Ottawa, Canada on September 25, 1984, ICSU Press, Cambridge University Press, London, pp. 146–156.
Walsh, J. J.: 1975, ‘A Spatial Simulation Model of the Peru Upwelling Ecosystem’, Deep-Sea Res. 22, 101–236.
Webster, P. J.: 1985, ‘Great Events, Grand Experiments: Man's Study of the Variable Climate - Part II Prospects of a Warming Earth’, Earth Min. Sci. 55, 21–24.
Wroblewski, J. S.: 1977, ‘A Model of Phytoplankton Plume Formation during Variable Oregon Upwelling’, J. Mar. Res. 35, 357–393.
Wroblewski, J. S., Sarmiento, J. L., and Flierl, G. R.: 1988, ‘An Ocean Basin Scale Model of Plankton Dynamics in the North Atlantic. 1. Solutions for the Climatological Oceanographie Conditions in May’, Global Biogeochemical Cycles 2 (3), 199–218.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Bernal, P.A. Consequences of global change for oceans: A review. Climatic Change 18, 339–359 (1991). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00139005
Received:
Revised:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00139005