Abstract
New estimates of changes in the duration of the navigation period for the Northern Sea Route (NSR) are obtained based on calculations with the current generation of global climate models under moderate anthropogenic impacts in the 21st century. In order to obtain more reliable estimates, it was analyzed whether or not the present climate models can simulate both the average conditions of sea ice and their interannual variation and tendencies to change in the Arctic basin, in particular on the NSR, as compared to the satellite data for recent decades.
Article PDF
Similar content being viewed by others
Avoid common mistakes on your manuscript.
References
Second Assessment Report of Federal Service of Russia on Hydrometeorology and Monitoring of the Environment on Climate Change and Its After-Effects in the Territory of the Russian Federation (Federal Service of Russia on Hydrometeorology and Monitoring of the Environment, Moscow, 2014).
Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability, Part B: Regional Aspects, Ed. by C. B. Barros, D. J. Field, D. J. Dokken, et al. (Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, 2014).
Snow, Water, Ice and Permafrost in the Arctic (SWIPA): Climate Change and the Cryosphere (Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Progr., Oslo, 2011).
I. I. Mokhov, V. Ch. Khon, and E. Roeckner, Dokl. Earth Sci. 415 5, 759–763 (2007).
G. V. Alekseev, A. I. Danilov, V. M. Kattsov, S. I. Kuzmina, and N. E. Ivanov, Izv., Atmos. Ocean. Phys. 45 6, 675–686 (2009).
V. Ch. Khon and I. I. Mokhov, Izv., Atmos. Ocean. Phys. 46 1, 14–20 (2010).
V. C. Khon, I. I. Mokhov, M. Latif, et al., Clim. Change 100 (3-4), 757–768 (2010).
V. M. Kattsov and B. N. Porfiriev, Arktika: Ekol. Ekon., No. 2 6, 66–79 (2012).
I. I. Mokhov, V. A. Semenov, V. Ch. Khon, and F. A. Pogarskii, Led i Sneg, No. 2 122, 53–62 (2013).
I. I. Mokhov and V. Ch. Khon, Arktika: Ekol. Ekon., No. 2 18, 88–95 (2015).
I. I. Mokhov, Herald Russ. Acad. Sci. 85 3, 265–271 (2015).
D. J. Cavalieri, C. L. Parkinson, P. Gloersen, et al., J. Geophys. Res. 104 (C7), 15803–15814 (1999).
V. Ch. Khon, I. I. Mokhov, and F. A. Pogarskii, Dokl. Earth Sci. 452 2, 1027–1029 (2013).
V. C. Khon, I. I. Mokhov, F. A. Pogarskii, et al., Geophys. Res. Lett. 41, 2956–2961 (2014).
M. G. Akperov, I. I. Mokhov, A. Rinke, et al., Theor. Appl. Climatol. 122, 85–96 (2015).
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Additional information
Original Russian Text © I.I. Mokhov, V.Ch. Khon, M.A. Prokof’eva, 2016, published in Doklady Akademii Nauk, 2016, Vol. 468, No. 6, pp. 699–704.
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Mokhov, I.I., Khon, V.C. & Prokof’eva, M.A. New model estimates of changes in the duration of the navigation period for the Northern Sea Route in the 21st century. Dokl. Earth Sc. 468, 641–645 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1134/S1028334X16060209
Received:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1134/S1028334X16060209