Abstract
The phase distribution of all strong X-ray flares from 1976 to 2013 and the flares in the current 24th cycle have been investigated. It is concluded that, until around 2019, mid-level M-class flares and strong (up to X8 class) flares can be expected. Stronger flares may also occur. Superflares like the Carrington event are unlikely.
Article PDF
Similar content being viewed by others
Avoid common mistakes on your manuscript.
References
Bushby, P. and Mason, J., Understanding the solar dynamo, Astron. Geophys., 2004, vol. 45, no. 4, pp. 4.7–4.13.
Cajori, F., Newton’s Principia, San Francisco: University of California Press, 1934, Book III, Proposition XIII.
Khlystov, A.I., Dolgachev, V.P., and Domozhilova, L.M., The barycentric motion of the Sun and solar-terrestrial relations, Biofizika, 1992, vol. 37, no. 3, pp. 547–553.
Khlystov, A.I., Dolgachev, V.P., and Domozhilova, L.M., The barycentric motion of the Sun and its consequences for the solar system, Sovremennye global’nye izmeneniya prirodnoi sredy (Current Global Changes in the Natural Environment), vol. 3: Faktory global’nykh izmenenii (Factors of Global Change), Moscow: Nauchnyi mir, 2012, pp. 62–77.
Khlystov, A.I. and Khlystova, V.A., What will do the forthcoming cycle?, Del’fis, 2012, no. 1(69), pp. 55–61.
Khlystov, A.I., Klige, R.K., and Sidorenkov, N.S., Type 3 resonance in the solar system, Sovremennye global’nye izmeneniya prirodnoi sredy (Current Global Changes in the Natural Environment), vol. 3: Faktory global’nykh izmenenii (Factors of Global Change), Moscow: Nauchnyi mir, 2012, pp. 147–160.
Khlystov, A.I. and Somov, B.V., Predicting the main parameters of solar cycle 24 by the number of spotless days in the previous minimum, Izv., Atmos. Ocean. Phys., 2012, vol. 48, no. 7, pp. 717–723.
Parker, E.N., A solar dynamo surface wave at the interface between convection and nonuniform rotation, Astrophys. J., 1993, vol. 408, no. 2, pp. 707–719.
Somov, B.V., Kosmicheskaya elektrodinamika i fizika Solntsa (Cosmic Electrodynamics and Solar Physics), Moscow: Izd-vo MGU, 1993.
Somov, B.V., Plasma Astrophysics, vol. 2: Reconnection and Flares, New York: Springer, 2013.
Spiegel, E.A. and Zahn, J.-P., The solar tachocline, Astron. Astrophys., 1992, vol. 265, pp. 106–114.
Thompson, M.J., Solar interior: Helioseismology and the Sun’s interior, Astron. Geophys., 2004, vol. 45, no. 4, pp. 4.21–4.25.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Additional information
Original Russian Text © A.I. Khlystov, 2014, published in Geofizicheskie Protsessy i Biosfera, 2014, Vol. 13, No. 1, pp. 66–73.
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Khlystov, A.I. Distribution of strong and super flares by phases of solar activity cycles. Izv. Atmos. Ocean. Phys. 50, 776–781 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1134/S0001433814080052
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1134/S0001433814080052