Demand for Cars in Russia: Before and after the 2008–2009 Crisis

Abstract

Over the last 20 years, the Russian car market has been developing actively. Its evolution reflects radical changes in the national economy. After an initial period of decline due to intensive restructuring,¹ the Russian economy enjoyed a prolonged solid 5.7% annual growth rate (1998–2008), which was halted by the international crisis of 2009 when Russia was stricken by a severe but brief recession (-7.8%). The post-recovery growth is much slower (3.5% during the period 2010–2013) and fragile but is still well above the European level. In terms of living standards, the GDP per capita in Russia reached USD 14,000 in current terms in 2012 – 1.2 times higher than in Brazil, 2.3 times higher than in China, and 9.3 times higher than in India.² This chapter covers the above period, which saw the development of a new Russian economy and a new structure of national consumer markets, focusing on the car market.³ This market is now sizeable, with USD 40–60 billion per annum for light-vehicles and around USD 30–40 billion per annum for parts and accessories. One major determinant of this booming automobile market is the growth of personal income in a context of increasing inequality, which led to the emergence of a new and rather representative middle class. Demand for cars by this new middle class made the Russian market one of the most dynamic in Europe.