The Syrian Military’s “Fervent Support” of Bashar al-Assad

Abstract

Distinct from its regional counterparts, the elite Syrian military has withstood mounting strife and domestic unrest since the Arab uprisings ignited in Dar’a in mid-March 2011. Since then, many inside Syria, within the region, and in the West have predicted the demise of the Alawite regime. It is quite apparent why many believed that Bashar al-Assad’s days were numbered. By the summer of 2011, many of al-Assad’s Arab counterparts had been removed from office. Tunisia’s Ben Ali went into exile in Saudi Arabia; Egypt’s Hosni Mubarak faced trial for crimes against his countrymen; Muammar Gaddafi was killed by street fighters after they pulled him from a ditch; and Yemen’s Ali Saleh was forced to abdicate the throne to seek medical treatment in Saudi Arabia. To many inside and outside of Syria, al-Assad was the next dictator-domino to fall. Events in and around Syria seemed to support this prediction. What began as isolated, peaceful, and chaotic protests in early March 2011 morphed into nationwide, violent, and unified protests toward the end of summer. Moreover, by the end of 2011, the Alawite security apparatuses were exhausted; defections began to rise; fissures within the Alawite community spiked; the country’s treasury was depleted; and regional and international actors alike began to call for al-Assad’s departure. The Alawite military could have easily replaced al-Assad with another Alawite dictator (or a puppet Sunni leader) in an attempt to appease the crowds.