Abstract
Most of the world’s populations have begun the long process of demographic transition that will inevitably transform them from young populations to old ones; the lagging countries will soon follow. Although the timing and pace of the transitions differ, the basic structure of change is typically very similar. Starting from an initial equilibrium with slow population growth, mortality first begins to decline while fertility remains high. The population begins to grow more rapidly and the fraction of young people in the population rises as does the child dependency ratio. After some decades, fertility begins its decline which is rapid and brief. The population growth rate slows, the proportion of children falls, and the proportion of working-age population rises. This stage continues for five or six decades, giving rise to the so-called First Demographic Dividend. The smaller birth cohorts eventually begin to move into the working ages, slowing the growth of the labor force, while the growth of the older population accelerates due to rising life span. The share of the elderly rises as does the total dependency ratio, and the population ages. This process largely stops when the smaller generations begin to reach old age. However, due to rising life spans population aging continues, albeit at a slower pace than before.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
Preview
Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Becker, G., and H. G. Lewis (1973), “On the Interaction between the Quantity and Quality of Children,” Journal of Political Economy, 81(2), 279–88.
Boersch-Supan, A. (2006), “Demographic Change, Saving and Asset Prices: Theory and Evidence,” in C. Kent, A. Park, and D. Rees (eds), Demography and Financial Markets (Australian Government, The Treasury), pp. 132–65.
Bucks, B. et al. (2009), “Changes in U.S. Family Finances from 2004 to 2007: Evidence from the Survey of Consumer Finances,” Federal Reserve Bulletin, 95 (February), A1–A55. http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/oss/oss2/2007/scf2007home.html
Gruber, J., and D. A. Wise (1999), “Introduction and Summary,” in J. Gruber and D. A. Wise (eds), Social Security and Retirement around the World (Chicago: The University of Chicago Press), pp. 1–40.
Lee, R., and A. Mason (2010), “Some Macroeconomic Aspects of Global Population Aging,” In a Special Supplement to Demography, 47 (Suppl.), S151–S172.
— — (eds) (2011), Population Aging and the Generational Economy: A Global Perspective (Cheltenham, UK: Edward Elgar).
— — (2012), “Population Aging, Intergenerational Transfers, and Economic Growth: Asia in a Global Context,” in National Research Council of the National Academies, J. P. Smith, and M. Majmundar (eds), Aging in Asia: Findings from New and Emerging Data Initiatives. Panel on Policy Research and Data Needs to Meet the Challenge of Aging in Asia (Washington, DC: The National Academies Press). http://www.nap.edu/openbook.php?record_id=13361&page=77, date accessed 20 October 2014.
—, S. H. Lee, and A. Mason (2008), “‘Charting the Economic Life Cycle’ in Population Aging, Human Capital Accumulation, and Productivity Growth,” in A. Prskawetz, D. E. Bloom, and W. Lutz (eds), A Supplement to Population and Development Review, 34 (Suppl.), 208–37.
—, G. Donehower, and T. Miller (2011), “The Changing Shape of the Economic Lifecycle in the United States, 1970 to 2003,” in R. Lee and A. Mason (eds), Population Aging and the Generational Economy: A Global Perspective (Cheltenham, UK: Edward Elgar), pp. 313–26.
Pérez-Brignoli, H. (2009), “Demographic Transition in Latin America, 1800–2050,” Paper presented at a conference on the Long Term Consequences of the Demographic Transition, Madrid, Spain.
Rosero-Bixby, L., P. Zúniga-Brenes, and L. Andrea Collado Rosero-Bixby (2011), “Transfer Accounts in Costa Rica’s Mixed Economy under Rapidly Changing Demographic Conditions,” in R. Lee and A. Mason (eds), Population Aging and the Generational Economy: A Global Perspective (Cheltenham, UK: Edward Elgar).
Sanderson, W. C., and S. Scherbov (2010), “Remeasuring Aging,” Science 10 September 2010, 329(5997), 1287–8. doi: 10.1126/science.1193647.
United Nations Population Division (2009), World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision (New York: United Nations).
United Nations Population Division (2011), World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision (New York: United Nations).
Willis, R. J. (1973), “A New Approach to the Economic Theory of Fertility Behavior,” Journal of Political Economy, 81(2, Part 2), S14–S64.
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Copyright information
© 2015 Ronald Lee
About this chapter
Cite this chapter
Lee, R. (2015). Population Aging and the Changing Economic Life Cycle: A Global Perspective. In: Torp, C. (eds) Challenges of Aging. Palgrave Macmillan, London. https://doi.org/10.1057/9781137283177_3
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1057/9781137283177_3
Publisher Name: Palgrave Macmillan, London
Print ISBN: 978-1-349-67080-2
Online ISBN: 978-1-137-28317-7
eBook Packages: Palgrave Social Sciences CollectionSocial Sciences (R0)