Keywords

JEL Classifications

Lawrence Robert Klein 1980 Nobel laureate in economics, has been a pioneer in economic model building and in developing a worldwide industry in econometric forecasting and policy analysis. As Klein’s Nobel citation states, ‘Few, if any, researchers in the empirical field of economic science have had so many successors and such a large impact as Lawrence Klein.’ When one thinks of macroeconometric models, his name is the first that comes to mind. Spanning six decades, his research achievements have been broad, covering economic and econometric theory, methodology, and applications. In emphasizing the integration of economic theory with statistical methods and practical economic decision-making, he played a key role in establishing the directions and in accelerating the development of the theory, methodology and practice of econometric modelling.

His pioneering efforts in the 1940s built on the earlier works of Tinbergen (in the League of Nations Secretariat in 1936–8) and Haavelmo (1943), the seminal treatise of Keynes (1936), and the then emerging toolkit in mathematics and statistics for economic analysis. He was one of the first to establish an operational paradigm for macroeconometric models, and he developed statistical techniques for the estimation and application of these models. Always willing to give generously of himself as he interacted with students and colleagues, he has provided a training ground in applied econometrics for an impressive and long list of academicians, government officials and corporate executives from all over the world. Lawrence Klein continues to contribute in developing and applying econometric methodology for high-frequency forecasting, using weekly and daily information, and for analysing current world economic issues.

Lawrence Klein was born in Omaha, Nebraska on 14 September 1920. He obtained his undergraduate degree from the University of California at Berkeley in 1942 and completed his Ph.D. in Economics at Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) in 1944. He has been professor of economics at the University of Pennsylvania since 1958. He founded Wharton Econometric Forecasting Associates (WEFA) and, as a principal investigator at the University of Pennsylvania, helped with Bert Hickman and Aaron Gordon to establish Project LINK. Together with Michio Morishima, he founded the International Economic Review as a joint publishing endeavour of Osaka University and the University of Pennsylvania. He has been President of the American Economic Association (1977), President of the Econometric Society (1960), editor-in-chief of International Economic Review (1959–65), and John Bates Clark Medalist (1959).

In 1980, he was awarded the Nobel Prize in Economics ‘for the creation of econometric models and their application to the analysis of economic fluctuations and economic policies’ (prize citation in the Alfred Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences 1980; also in Lindbeck 1992, p. 411).

Klein’s experience as a youth in the Great Depression and his intense desire to understand what was going on led him to the study of economics. After spending two years in Los Angeles City College, Klein completed his last two undergraduate years at the University of California in Berkeley. With a keen interest in seeing how mathematics and statistics can be used in analysing economic problems, he worked with students of pioneers like Griffith Evans (professor of mathematics and a founding member of the Econometric Society) and Jerzy Neyman (professor of statistics and key developer of statistical theory). He also worked as a summer research assistant of George Kuznets in the Giannini Foundation. This summer work exposed him to perhaps his first foray into applied econometrics – estimating demand functions for Californian lemons! It was also during this time that Klein was introduced to the early scholarly works of Paul Samuelson, a serendipitous preparation for a long-time relationship that was to blossom as Klein moved to MIT for his doctoral studies.

On graduate scholarship at MIT, Klein was Paul Samuelson’s research assistant from the outset. As Klein himself remarked:

Working with Samuelson, who was at the forefront of interpreting Keynesian theory for teaching and policy applications, I was put immediately in the midst of two challenging contests – one to gain acceptance for a way of thinking about macroeconomics and another to gain acceptance for a methodology in economics, namely, the mathematical method. Later, both challenges were to be overcome, but for ten or twenty years, opposition was fierce. (Breit and Hirsch 2004, p. 18)

He would elaborate further on this:

working as an assistant for Samuelson was something that is very hard to duplicate anywhere in the world. He generates ideas so fast. At that time, there was a whole succession of ideas concerning Keynesian macroeconomics and econometrics and the development of mathematical methods in economics. It was a very exciting time, and I felt very fortunate to be in that background. (Mariano 1987, p. 411; and Klein 2006)

At that time, when Haavelmo’s celebrated Econometrica paper (Haavelmo 1943) was circulating as a working paper, the treatment of identification in econometric models led Samuelson to ask Klein to investigate the mathematical equivalence between the problems of identification in supply–demand models and in saving–investment analysis.

It was during his graduate student days that he started working on two papers that were later published in Econometrica and the Journal of Political Economy. The first, published in 1943, studied the specification of the investment function, while the second (1947) dealt with alternative theories of effective demand. Considered a seminal paper in the debate between the Keynesians and the classical economists, this latter paper formulated the Keynesian system in mathematical terms and argued that the specification of the liquidity preference function and determination of money wages are keys to the Keynesian system.

Klein completed his degree in two years, as Samuelson’s first Ph.D. student. His thesis, dealing with Keynesian economics, led in 1947 to the publication of The Keynesian Revolution, which was to become one of Klein’s best-known works. The book provided the mathematical specification of Keynes’s ideas that served as the foundation for the economic models that Klein formulated subsequently.

After finishing at MIT, Klein accepted Jacob Marschak’s invitation in 1944 to become a research associate in the Cowles Commission at the University of Chicago. This turned out to be a defining period for Klein’s professional career. His interactions with an unusually talented group that included J. Marschak, T.W. Anderson, H. Rubin, M. Girschick, T. Haavelmo, T. Koopmans, D. Patinkin, L. Hurwicz, K. Arrow, H. Simon, R. Leipnik, H. Chernoff, and visitors such as J. Tinbergen, R. Frisch and M. Kalecki proved to be a catalyst for his development into an applied econometrician par excellence. His MIT work on Keynesian economics began to evolve at this time into applied econometric modelling. While teams were formed to work on various aspects of an emerging econometrics field, Klein focused his energies on what was to become his lifelong endeavour. He described his task in the Cowles Commission as follows:

The central problem posed for research at Cowles by Jacob Marschak and Tjalling Koopmans was a fresh attempt at U.S. model building by using Haavelmo’s new ideas about econometric theory. … Jacob Marschak insisted that I base my econometric modelling on received economic theory and that I justify macroeconomic specifications on the basis of reasoning about individualistic decision making, with proper attention to the problem of aggregation. … It turned out to be an exciting time for me and enabled me to build on the Keynesian lessons that were taught to me at MIT by Paul Samuelson. … That was the beginning of my long association with the problems of macroeconometrics that were then being tackled afresh at the Cowles Commission. (Marwah 1997, pp. xx–xxii)

At Cowles, Klein completed his first series of macroeconometric models. The celebrated Klein Model 1 was part of this series. It was initially developed as a compact prototype model of the US economy to study computational methods. It has now become a standard reference in most introductory econometrics textbooks. Klein also put his models to work to answer pressing questions about the post-war US economy posed by professional colleagues like Albert Hart from the Committee for Economic Development, Theodore Yntema (former director of the Cowles Commission), and Alfred Cowles himself, who was a member of the Budget Committee of the Community Fund in Chicago. Klein’s models proved useful in forecasting what was in store after the war – predicting that the US economy would not return to the Great Depression.

Klein’s interactions with his peers at Cowles deepened his interest in statistical methodology, especially in estimation and prediction in simultaneous equations models. He developed a keen attention to detail in estimation in empirical work and a firm belief in the value of ‘high technology’ estimation procedures. At this juncture, he also started his joint work with Herman Rubin on the linear expenditure system for studying cost-of-living indexes in the context of a neoclassical demand model (see Klein and Rubin 1947) as well as on aggregation issues and demand systems. During this period, Klein completed most of the material for another major work, Economic Fluctuations in the United States, 1921–1941, which was published in 1950.

In the summer of 1947, Klein left the Cowles Commission, briefly to help in the initial econometric model building effort in Canada, then to spend the greater part of the year to visit Ragnar Frisch’s Institute in Oslo and Jan Tinbergen’s office in the Central Planning Bureau in the Netherlands.

Klein then joined the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), at the invitation of Arthur Burns, to undertake econometric studies of production functions. Interested in investigating the influence of liquid assets on saving behaviour, Klein moved to the University of Michigan in 1949, initially as researcher in the Survey Research Center for one year, then lecturer in economics from 1950 to 1954. Having become involved with the sample survey studies in the Center, Klein produced a number of publications on savings and consumption behaviour using survey data, culminating in a book on the contributions of survey methods in economics (Katona et al. 1954).

While at Michigan, Klein noticed a considerable interest in the forecasts about the state of the economy and the use of econometric models and also resumed the econometric modelling work that he started at the Cowles Commission. With Arthur Goldberger, his doctoral student at Michigan, he developed what has come to be called the Klein–Goldberger model of the US economy. As the first substantial effort at an empirical representation of a large economy with a theoretical Keynesian structure (see Klein and Goldberger 1955), this model has become an important reference to students and researchers in econometrics. This model has become a standard example in econometric textbooks, making very realistic simulation projections about the small recession following the Korean War. Klein and Goldberger initially published this result in the Manchester Guardian to challenge a very pessimistic econometric forecast by Colin Clark. Another major piece of work during this time was his textbook on econometrics, the first to provide a blend of theoretical, methodological and applied developments in econometrics (Klein 1953).

The University of Michigan was to promote Klein to full professorship but then reneged when Klein testified in a Detroit hearing that he had been a member of the Communist Party for about six months in 1946. (Subsequently, in 1978, the university awarded Klein an honorary doctoral degree in which the citation stated that he would probably be a Nobel laureate.) Oxford University’s Institute of Statistics quickly invited him to join its staff, which he accepted, becoming first Senior Research Officer from 1954 to 1955 and Reader in Econometrics from 1956 to 1958. As Klein himself explained in Breit and Hirsch (2004): ‘In the McCarthy era, I left Michigan for the peace and academic freedom in Oxford.’ At that time, the Oxford Institute of Statistics was undertaking the Oxford Savings Surveys in partnership with the UK government, an enterprise in which Klein played a substantial role. He also developed an econometric model of the UK economy, which was published in Klein et al. (1961).

In Oxford, Klein was ‘given the green light to do what he thought could be done within the confines of the Oxford system in teaching, attracting attention in seminars, and doing research activities in econometrics’ (Mariano 1987, p. 422). It was in this period that he produced his more intuitive instrumental variable interpretation of Theil’s two-stage least squares estimator (Klein 1955). Carrying over research initiatives from Cowles Commission work, Klein also looked into the statistical efficiency gains from imposing a priori restrictions on an economic system. Klein had numerous productive discussions with colleagues, including Peter Vandome and Michio Morishima, and with A. W. Phillips about the Phillips curve and how it relates to his own ideas about closing the Keynesian system for the determination of absolute prices and wages. His discussions with Jim Ball and Peter Newman about growth theory and growth models led to his idea of constructing a total growth model of the economy in terms of stable ratios as limiting conditions in economics. Some of these ideas that circulated in Oxford were eventually refined in Klein’s early years at the University of Pennsylvania (for example, Klein and Kosobud 1961).

Klein returned to the United States in 1958 – partly under family pressure, to help ageing parents – and joined the economics faculty of the University of Pennsylvania. University President Gaylord Harnwell and Provost Jonathan Rhoads told Klein that they did not have any interest in his political beliefs and simply wanted him at the University of Pennsylvania to teach econometrics: the University of Pennsylvania remains his main base of operations. He produced a host of academic publications and contributions to both economics and econometrics and he created innovative ways of financing major economic research with fresh linkages with industry and government. He also played a key role in shaping the Economics Department into its position today as one of the top economics departments in the United States.

Klein’s academic research at the University of Pennsylvania returned to favourite themes such as estimation and prediction in simultaneous equations models of economic systems (Johnston et al. 1974; Klein 1969; Klein et al. 1970; Klein and Howrey 1972; Klein and Nakamura 1962; and Klein and Young 1980). Some work opened up new issues such as the theoretical and empirical difficulties involved in measuring and tracking capacity utilization (Klein 1960a; Klein and Summers 1967; Klein and Preston 1967; Klein and Su 1979). Klein’s subsequent research themes delved into economic techniques, analysis, and policy, dealing with diverse topics in economic theory, econometric methodology and forecast uncertainty, microfoundations and linkages of the macro Keynesian paradigm, the role of expectations in empirical economic models, anticipations and forecasting, the Phillips curve, international economics and finance, economic growth, and policy formulation. At the same time, in a synergistic fashion, he continued and sustained his work on macroeconometric modelling, developing numerous econometric models for a vast array of applications. Prominent examples of these are the SSRC–Brookings model of the US economy, the Wharton School models of the US economy (medium-term and long-term), and the Project LINK world model.

Klein’s methodological approach in econometrics blends economic analysis, statistical method and mathematics. Many times in his writings he would strongly recommend that the best approach to applied economic modelling is to first develop an underlying theory, then move on to observation and the preparation of a database with the statistical methodology to construct, test and apply the empirical model.

He is wary of oversimplification in economic modelling, because, he says, the problems are complicated and can be understood only in the context of large complex systems. His starting premise is that ‘the real world is very complicated and cannot be effectively understood or guided by simple rules, such as those that underlie monetarism or those that can be treated by single equation time series methods or even those that can be treated by vector autoregression (VAR) methods’ (Marwah 1997, p. xxiv). It is his long-standing conviction that detailed structural modelling is the best kind of system for understanding the macroeconomy through its causal dynamic relationships, specified by received economic analysis. However, with more time-series information becoming available on weekly, daily, hourly, and real-time basis, he also feels that there are related approaches, based on indicator analysis, that are complementary, especially for use in high-frequency analysis.

Klein disagrees with the notion that macroeconomics is simply an adding up of the propositions of microeconomics (for example, see Klein 1993). He argues that macroeconomics stands on its own as a separate subject and cannot be entirely derived from microeconomics. In his view, there are important concepts and analyses that are inherently macroeconomic. And, of course, there are also important macroeconomic propositions that can be derived from microeconomics, but only after paying painstaking attention to the formulas and processes of aggregation. And on the issue of aggregation, which he had studied since his undergraduate days in Berkeley, he maintains in subsequent analyses that ‘macromodeling in terms of unweighted aggregates or, even worse, in terms of the “representative agent”, fails to deal with the relevant distribution issues’ (Marwah 1997, p. xxi). There are two dimensions to aggregation, over commodities and services and over economic units (firms and households). Specific and narrow market analyses, involving intricate aggregation over economic units, are important in price determination; yet they are not purely microeconomic since they involve aggregation in various dimensions.

Klein believes that the market system cannot provide adequate self-regulatory responses in an economy. The economy definitely needs guidance and Klein looks to professional economists to provide policymakers with the right information for appropriate decision-making and leadership. On methods for doing this, according to Klein, there is no alternative to the quantitative approach of econometrics, but with the realization that not all policy issues are quantitative and measurable, and that subjective decisions must also be made (see Klein 1992). Furthermore, econometric information must be detailed if it is to be useful in policy formation. In general, there is a need to move in the direction of preparation of large-scale complex systems in order to help policymakers. Significant advances in computer technology and the provision of detailed information through associated telecom processes make it possible to push econometrics in the direction of truly serving policymakers (see Klein 1986).

Klein also sought to extend the narrow Keynesian model serially to the supply side, the open economy and the developing economy by integrating his conception of Keynesian theory with other branches of economics such as international trade and economic development. And he enhanced his model structure further not only with the flow-of-funds accounts but also with the introduction of input–output analysis. He felt strongly that the economic model structure must interface with the social accounts especially when supply side, industry, and longer-term analysis are of major concerns in the study. Thus, Klein’s modelling team at the University of Pennsylvania produced standardized procedures for combining input–output analysis with macroeconometric modelling in a feedback mode (see Klein 1989; Klein et al. 1991).

Klein draws upon explicit surveys of consumer and manufacturer expectations to develop a powerful and meaningful way of dealing with expectations in macroeconometrics. He believes that the ‘rational expectations’ approach – where expectations are treated to be fully consistent with the model being estimated – is ‘unrealistic and singularly unhelpful in guiding economic policy or in forecasting’ (Marwah 1997, p. xxiii). The most important analyses of expectations will come through the in-depth use of the sample survey method. Along these lines, Klein’s research sought to endogenize measured expectations and to include anticipatory variables in his macroeconometric models (orders, investment intentions, housing starts, building permits, survey responses about future spending, incomes, or price movements: see Klein 1972; Adams and Klein 1972; and Klein and Ozmucur 2007).

In the early stages of his career, Klein considered the real sector as the key focus of the analysis and that a good understanding of the economy is possible without careful reference to the monetary sector. But in studying the macroeconomy, he has increasingly come to appreciate the role of money and of the whole monetary sector. For example: ‘Monetarism is fundamentally flawed, and dangerous when used as a doctrinaire policy approach, but I do believe that money matters; it is not everything but it does matter’ (Klein 1992, p. 188; also in Marwah 1997, p. xliv). But he remarks further that science, technology, development, and innovation play important roles in the dynamics of the economy and that this interpretation of the supply side is different from and far more important than the simplistic and populist approaches through tax cuts.

In using his empirical models to forecast, Klein has always been concerned with how to adjust the model so that it would start on a forecast extrapolation at prevailing initial values. A particular concern was the frequent data revisions and new information flows about exogenous and endogenous variables at the very moment of forecast calculation. One approach – subjective adjustments to initialize the extrapolation process – is not replicable and is not satisfactory. Since the 1980s, Klein has been using time series methods to extrapolate higher frequency indicators for purposes of initializing the empirical macromodel (Klein and Young 1980; Klein and Sojo 1989; Klein and Park 1993; Klein and Ozmucur 2007).

Klein has always been conscious of the statistical uncertainties involved in the results of econometric model building and application. Consequently, coping with forecast errors from macroeconometric models is a constantly recurring theme in his research agenda. And he has developed methods for assessing the degree of uncertainty in econometric inference, in particular model simulation techniques to evaluate forecast errors of large-scale models and to perform sensitivity analyses of these models (Klein and Howrey 1972; Johnston et al. 1974; Klein and Marquez 1989; and Klein 1994).

Construction of the Wharton models started with a Rockefeller Foundation grant in the early 1960s. This was followed by the establishment of the Wharton Econometric Forecasting Unit as a research group at the Wharton School for general quantitative studies in economics, financed by the Ford Foundation and the National Science Foundation. Subsequent funding came from several major corporations that sought Klein’s help in econometric model building to assist their economic research departments. Since this activity thrived, the unit was formally incorporated in 1969 as a non-profit entity, fully owned by the University of Pennsylvania, and with the name Wharton Econometric Forecasting Associates (WEFA).

Through WEFA, Klein was able to tap major sources of funding and channel these towards the establishment of the University of Pennsylvania as a premier centre of academic research in applied econometric analysis. Through the 1960s, 1970s, and 1980s, WEFA earnings from research consultancies for private companies, and public agencies were ploughed back to support economics faculty, graduate students, and visiting scholars in the University of Pennsylvania. The commercial work within WEFA itself also pioneered the logical development and computer handling of large- scale systems.

While at the University of Pennsylvania, Klein also pursued his interests in international model building. In the 1960s, he started his work on modelling the economies of Japan, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), and Latin American countries, starting with Mexico, Brazil and Argentina. These model-building efforts then spread out into many developing countries in Asia, including China, and some in the Middle East. Klein headed the first delegation of academic economists from the US to China in 1979. The following year, in collaboration with Lawrence Lau, Klein convinced the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences to host an econometric workshop at the Summer Palace in Beijing. The workshop staff, consisting of Klein, T.W. Anderson, Albert Ando, Lawrence Lau, Gregory Chow, Cheng Hsiao and Vincent Su, introduced econometrics and related aspects of empirical economic model building to the then nascent community of Chinese economists. Klein also directed related efforts to socialist nations. All these efforts naturally led to Project LINK.

Project LINK was one of the biggest and most ambitious projects that Klein mounted, with initial funding support in 1968 from the Ford Foundation, National Science Foundation, the International Monetary Fund and the Federal Reserve Board. The project sought to integrate the macroeconometric models of different countries, which eventually included Third World and socialist nations, into a total simultaneous system through international trade and financial flows (for example, see Klein 1983; and Klein and Hickman 1984). The main objective was to improve understanding of international economic linkages and to make improved forecasts of world trade. Over the years, this worldwide project has provided an important research forum that brings together model builders from many countries to share each other’s developments and to discuss in a systematic way world economic prospects and pressing economic policy challenges. Project LINK also has provided a critical impetus for the development of economic and econometric analysis in socialist and Third World countries. Today, Project LINK is headquartered at the University of Toronto and the United Nations office in New York. It involves approximately 100 countries worldwide.

One of Klein’s research works now deals with forecasting with high-frequency data through the University of Pennsylvania Current Quarter Model (CQM) (see Klein and Sojo 1989; Klein and Park 1993; and Klein and Ozmucur 2007). This model embodies a constant effort to improve forecasts by combining results from different methods, namely the expenditure side model, income side model, and the principal components model of an economy. It combines data at different frequencies to enable use of all available information. High-frequency forecasts are useful not only for studying the short-term developments of the economy but also for adjusting lower-frequency macroeconometric models so that they are solved from up-to-date initial conditions. The University of Pennsylvania Current Quarter Model has generated a great deal of interest in high-frequency macroeconometric models. Klein has authored or advised the building of similar models for Russia and China (see Klein and Mak 2005) and he is in the process of contributing to building a model for India. There are also efforts, mostly by Klein’s students, to build high-frequency models for other countries such as Japan, Mexico, Hong Kong, France and the European Union.

Klein’s efforts to improve forecasting accuracy also have moved in the related direction of building models that include survey results (households, investors, and managers: see Klein and Ozmucur 2007). And his constant attempt to answer pressing substantive issues has led to recent applied and technical papers on using input–output tables with econometric models (Klein 2003; on information technology and productivity, see Klein et al. 1999, 2003, 2004; on estimating China’s economic growth rate, Klein and Ozmucur 2002/2003; and on financial crises’ challenges and cures, see Klein et al. 2007; and Klein and Shabbir 2007).

In addition to the academic activities that this article has focused on, Klein has been active throughout his career in non-academic pursuits as well. He chaired the economic task force of Jimmy Carter in the US presidential election campaign in 1976. He served on the Finance Committee of the National Academy of Sciences and on the Board of Directors of W.P. Carey Co. He found time to contribute journalistic pieces about economic affairs to the Los Angeles Times, Manchester Guardian, and Banker’s Magazine; and to be a founding officer and active moving force of the Economists Allied for Arms Reduction (ECAAR), now Economists for Peace and Security (EPS). All these activities have produced an illustrious line-up of students and colleagues who have benefited from their collegial training and/or collaboration with Klein. Many of them are in the highest levels in major academic institutions, leading companies in the private sector, multinational organizations and government agencies all over the world.

Klein has developed and moulded macroeconometric models for over six decades in his own inimitable way, addressing the soundness of the theoretical basis for the model specification, using empirical evidence and data and appropriate methodology to estimate and validate and apply the model for the purposes that drove its creation. Over the years, these models have evolved in terms of complexity, breadth, and new econometric methodologies. And these models have been constructed and applied to address a wide variety of issues such as post-war economic policy formation in the 1940s (his mission at the Cowles Commission), the oil price shocks and the ensuing stagflation in the United States in the 1970s, impact and policy implications of the financial crisis in the 1990s, impact of tariff and non-tariff barriers on regional trade flows, policy analysis of regional trade groupings and various international agreements (for example, Uruguay Round, NAFTA, APEC, WTO), capital flows, economic development all over the world, and explaining endogenous exchange rates after the demise of Bretton Woods parities.

Though Klein had the benefit of Tinbergen’s early work as well as the post-war effort at the Central Planning Bureau in the Netherlands, Klein’s modelling work was akin to the original model T Ford out of which many other models developed in different parts of the world. Klein’s own work has shaped developments in the field quite uniquely and has influenced model builders on a worldwide scale.

‘His principal achievement has been in pioneering an activity in the field of economic model building which has required foresight, persistence and great technical skill and which has been translated into a paradigm of research activity that has spread wherever statistical economics is taught and wherever models are built’ (Ball 1981, p. 92). Undoubtedly, he continues to inspire, teach, lead, explore and push the intellectual and academic frontiers of the pursuits that continue to define his lifetime of pioneering work.

See Also

Selected Works

  • 1943. Pitfalls in the statistical determination of the investment schedule. Econometrica 11: 246–258.

  • 1947. Theories of effective demand and employment. Journal of Political Economy 55: 108–131.

  • 1947. The Keynesian revolution, 2nd ed. New York: Macmillan, 1966.

  • 1947. (With H. Rubin.) A constant-utility index of the cost of living. Review of Economic Studies 15: 84–87.

  • 1950. Economic fluctuations in the United States 1921–1941, Cowles Commission Monograph 11. New York: Wiley.

  • 1953. A textbook of econometrics, 2nd ed. New Jersey: Prentice-Hall, 1974.

  • 1954. (With G. Katona, J. Lansing and J. Morgan.) Contributions of survey methods to economics. New York: Columbia University Press.

  • 1955. On the interpretation of Theil’s method of estimating economic relationships. Metroeconomnica 7: 147–153.

  • 1955. (With A.S. Goldberger.) An econometric model of the United States 1929–1952. Amsterdam: North-Holland.

  • 1958. The estimation of distributed lags. Econometrica 26: 553–565.

  • 1960a. Some theoretical issues in the measurement of capacity. Econometrica 28: 272–286.

  • 1960b. Single equation vs. equation system methods of estimation in econometrics. Econometrica 28: 866–871.

  • 1961. (With R.J. Ball, A. Hazlewood, and P. Vandome.) An econometric model of the United Kingdom. Oxford: Basil Blackwell.

  • 1961. (With R.F. Kosobud.) Some econometrics of growth: Great ratios of economics. Quarterly Journal of Economics 75: 173–198.

  • 1962. (With M. Nakamura.) Singularity in the equation systems of econometrics: Some aspects of the problem of multicollinearity. International Economic Review 3: 274–299.

  • 1967. (With R. Preston.) Some new results in the measurement of capacity utilization. American Economic Review 57: 34–58.

  • 1967. (With R. Summers.) The Wharton index of capacity utilization. Philadelphia: Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania.

  • 1969. Estimation of interdependent systems in macroeconometrics. Econometrica 37: 171–192.

  • 1970. (With P.J. Dhrymes and K. Steiglitz.) Estimation of distributed lags. International Economic Review 11: 235–250.

  • 1972. The treatment of expectations in econometrics. In Uncertainty and expectations in economics, ed. C.F. Carter and J.L. Ford. Oxford: Blackwell.

  • 1972. (With F.G. Adams.) Anticipations variables in macroeconometric models. In Human behavior in economic affairs: Essays in honor of George Katona, ed. B. Strumpel, J.N. Morgan, and E. Zahn. Amsterdam: Elsevier.

  • 1972. (With E.P. Howrey.) Dynamic properties of nonlinear econometric models. International Economic Review 13: 599–618.

  • 1973. The treatment of undersized samples in econometrics. In Econometric studies of macro and monetary relations, ed. A.A. Powell and R.A. Williams. Amsterdam: North-Holland.

  • 1974. (With H.N. Johnston and K. Shinjo.) Estimation and prediction in dynamic econometric models. In Econometrics and economic theory, ed. W. Sellekaerts. London: Macmillan.

  • 1975. (With K. Johnston.) Stability in the international economy: The LINK experience. In International aspects of stabilization policies, ed. A. Ando, R. Herring, and R. Marston. Boston: Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.

  • 1979. (With V. Su.) Direct estimates of unemployment rate and capacity utilization in macroeconometric models. International Economic Review 20: 725–740.

  • 1980. (With R.M. Young.) An introduction to econometric forecasting and forecasting models. Lexington: D.C. Heath.

  • 1981. The LINK project. In International trade and multi-country models, ed. R. Courbis. Paris: Economica.

  • 1981. (With G. Fromm.) Scale of macro-econometric models and accuracy of forecasting. In Large scale macroeconometric models, ed. J. Kmenta and J. Ramsey. Amsterdam: North-Holland.

  • 1983. International models for forecasting and policy formation. Prévision et Analyse Economique (Cahiers du Gama) 4: 93–113. Repr. in Marwah (1997).

  • 1984. (With B. Hickman.) Wage-price behavior in the national models of project LINK. American Economic Review 74: 150–154.

  • 1986. Economic policy formation: theory and implementation (applied economics in the public sector). In Handbook of econometrics, vol. 3, ed. Z. Griliches and M.D. Intriligator. Amsterdam: North-Holland.

  • 1989. Econometric aspects of input-output analysis. In Frontiers of input-output analysis, ed. R.E. Miller, K.R. Polenski, and A.Z. Rose. Oxford: Oxford University Press.

  • 1989. (With E. Sojo.) Combinations of high and low frequency data in macroeconometric models. In Economics in theory and practice: An eclectic approach, ed. L.R. Klein and J. Marquez. Dordrecht: Kluwer.

  • 1989. (With J. Marquez.) Economics in theory and practice: An eclectic approach. Dordrecht: Kluwer.

  • 1991. (With R. Bodkin and K. Marwah.) A history of macroeconometric model-building. Aldershot: Edward Elgar.

  • 1992. My professional life philosophy. In Eminent economists: Their life philosophies, ed. M. Szenberg. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. Repr. in Marwah (1997).

  • 1993. What is macroeconomics? In Monetary theory and thought, ed. H. Barkai, S. Fischer, and N. Liviatan. London: Macmillan. Repr. in Marwah (1997).

  • 1993. (With J.Y. Park.) Economic forecasting at high frequency intervals. Journal of Forecasting 12, 301–319.

  • 1994. Economic forecasting and decision-making under uncertainty. In Money, inflation, and employment, essays in honor of James Ball, ed. S. Holly. Aldershot: Edward Elgar. Repr. in Marwah (1997).

  • 1999. (With V.J. Duggal and C. Saltzman.) Infrastructure and productivity: A nonlinear approach. Journal of Econometrics 92: 47–74.

  • 2002/2003. (With S. Ozmucur.) The estimation of China’s economic growth rate. Journal of Economic and Social Measurement 28: 187–202.

  • 2003. The use of input-output tables to estimate the productivity of IT. Journal of Policy Modeling 25: 471–475.

  • 2003. (With V.J. Duggal and C. Saltzman.) Information technology and productivity: The case of the financial sector. Survey of Current Business, August, 32–37.

  • 2004. (With V.J. Duggal and C. Saltzman.) Contributions of input-output analysis to the understanding of technological change: The information sector in the United States. In Wassily Leontief and input-output economics, ed. E. Dietzenbacher and M.L. Lahr. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

  • 2005. (With W. Mak.) Initial steps in the high-frequency modeling of China. Business Economics 40: 11–14.

  • 2006. Paul Samuelson as a ‘Keynesian’ economist. In Samuelsonian economics and the twenty-first century, ed. M. Szenberg, L. Ramrattan, and A. Gottesman. Oxford/New York: Oxford University Press.

  • 2007. (With S. Ozmucur.) The University of Pennsylvania models for high-frequency macroeconomic modeling. In Econometric forecasting and high-frequency data analysis, ed. R.S. Mariano and Y.K. Tse. Singapore: World Scientific.

  • 2007. (With R.S. Mariano and S. Ozmucur.) Capital controls, financial crises and cures: Simulations with an econometric model for Malaysia. In Recent financial crises, Challenges and implications, ed. L.R. Klein and T. Shabbir. Cheltenham: Edward Elgar.

  • 2007. (With T. Shabbir.) Recent financial crises: Analysis, challenges and implications. Cheltenham: Edward Elgar.