Abstract
Distinct climate changes since the end of the 1980s have led to clear responses in crop phenology in many parts of the world. This study investigated the trends in the dates of spring wheat phenology in relation to mean temperature for different growth stages. It also analyzed the impacts of climate change, cultivar shift, and sowing date adjustments on phenological events/phases of spring wheat in northern China (NC). The results showed that significant changes have occurred in spring wheat phenology in NC due to climate warming in the past 30 years. Specifically, the dates of anthesis and maturity of spring wheat advanced on average by 1.8 and 1.7 day (10 yr)−1. Moreover, while the vegetative growth period (VGP) shortened at most stations, the reproductive growth period (RGP) prolonged slightly at half of the investigated stations. As a result, the whole growth period (WGP) of spring wheat shortened at most stations. The findings from the Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM)-Wheat model simulated results for six representative stations further suggested that temperature rise generally shortened the spring wheat growth period in NC. Although the warming trend shortened the lengths of VGP, RGP, and WGP, the shift of new cultivars with high accumulated temperature requirements, to some extent, mitigated and adapted to the ongoing climate change. Furthermore, shifts in sowing date exerted significant impacts on the phenology of spring wheat. Generally, an advanced sowing date was able to lower the rise in mean temperature during the different growth stages (i.e., VGP, RGP, and WGP) of spring wheat. As a result, the lengths of the growth stages should be prolonged. Both measures (cultivar shift and sowing date adjustments) could be vital adaptation strategies of spring wheat to a warming climate, with potentially beneficial effects in terms of productivity.
Article PDF
Similar content being viewed by others
Avoid common mistakes on your manuscript.
References
Angstrom, A., 1924: Solar and terrestrial radiation. Report to the international commission for solar research on actinometric investigations of solar and atmospheric radiation. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 50, 121–126.
Asseng, S., I. Foster, and N. C. Turner, 2011: The impact of temperature variability on wheat yields. Global Change Biol., 17, 997–1012.
Challinor, J., F. Ewert, S. Arnold, et al., 2009: Crops and climate change: Progress, trends, and challenges in simulating impacts and informing adaptation. J. Exp. Bot., 60, 2775–2789.
Chmielewski, F. M., A. Müller, and E. Bruns, 2004: Climate changes and trends in phenology of fruit trees and fieldcrops in Germany, 1961–2000. Agric. For. Meteor., 121, 69–78.
Croitoru, A. E., I. H. Holobaca, C. Lazar, et al., 2012: Air temperature trend and the impact on winter wheat phenology in Romania. Climate Change, 111, 393–410.
Ding Yihui, Ren Guoyu, Shi Guangyu, et al., 2006: National assessment report of climate change (I): Climate change in China and its future trend. Adv. Climate Change Res., 2, 3–8. (in Chinese)
Diskin, E., H. Proctor, M. Jebb, et al., 2012: The phenology of Rubusfruticosus in Ireland: Herbarium specimens provide evidence for the response of phenophases to temperature, with implications forclimate warming. Int. J. Biometeorol., 56, 1103–1111.
au]E Youhao, Huo Zhiguo, Ma Yuping, et al., 2013: The regional diversity of changes in growing duration of spring wheat and its correlation with climatic adaptation in northern China. Acta Ecologica Sinica, 33, 6295–6302. (in Chinese)
Estrella, N., T. M. Sparks, and A. Menzel, 2007: Trends and temperature response in the phenology of crops in Germany. Global Change Biol., 13, 1737–1747.
He, L., S. Asseng, G. Zhao, et al., 2015: Impacts of recent climate warming, cultivar changes, and crop management on winter wheat phenology across the Loess Plateau of China. Agric. For. Meteor., 200, 135–143.
IPCC, 2013: Summary for policymakers.
Climate Change 2013: the Physical Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Stocker, T. F., D. Qin, G. K., Plattner, et al., Eds., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
Jamieson, P. D., I. R. Brooking, M. A. Semenov, et al., 1998: Making sense of wheat development: A critique of methodology. Field Crop Res., 55, 117–127.
Keating, B. A., P. S. Carberry, G. L. Hammer, et al., 2003: An overview of APSIM, a model designed for farming systems simulation. Eur. J. Agron., 18, 267–288.
Li, Z. G., P. Yang, H. J. Tang, et al., 2014: Response of maize phenology to climate warming in Northeast China between 1990 and 2012. Reg. Environ. Change, 14, 39–48.
Lobell, D. B., and C. B. Field, 2007: Global scale climatecrop yield relationships and the impacts of recent warming. Environ. Res. Lett., 2, 014002
Ludwig, F., and S. Asseng, 2010: Potential benefits of early vigor and changes in phenology in wheat to adapt to warmer and drier climates. Agr. Syst., 103, 127–136.
Menzel, A., T. H. Sparks, N. Estrella, et al., 2006: European phenological response to climate change matches thewarming pattern. Global Change Biol., 12, 1969–1976.
Porter, J. R., and M. Gawith, 1999: Temperatures and the growth and development of wheat: A review. Eur. J. Agron., 10, 23–36.
Porter, J. R., and M. A. Semenov, 2005: Crop responses to climatic variation. Philos. Trans. R. Soc. Lond. B Biol. Sci., 360, 2021–2035.
Prescott, J. A., 1940: Evaporation from a water surface in relation to solar radiation. T. Roy. Soc. South Aus., 64, 114–118.
Semenov, M. A., 2009: Impacts of climate change on wheat in England and Wales. J. R. Soc. Interface, 6, 343–350.
Tan Kaiyan, Fang Shibo, Zhou Guangsheng, et al., 2015: Responses of irrigated winter wheat yield in North China to increased temperature and elevated CO2 concentration. J. Meteor. Res., 29, 691–702.
Tao, F. L., M. Yokozawa, Y. L. Xu, et al., 2006: Climate changes and trends in phenology and yields of field crops in China, 1981–2000. Agric. For. Meteor., 138, 82–92.
Tao, F. L., S. Zhang, and Z. Zhang, 2012: Spatiotemporal changes of wheat phenology in China under the effects of temperature, day length and cultivar thermal characteristics. Eur. J. Agron., 43, 201–212.
Tao, F. L., Z. Zhang, D. P. Xiao, et al., 2014: Responses of wheat growth and yield to climate change in different climate zones of China, 1981–2009. Agric. For. Meteor., 189–190, 91–104.
Thornton, P. E., S. W. Running, and M. A. White, 1997: Generating surfaces of daily meteorological variables over large regions of complex terrain. J. Hydrol., 190, 214–251.
van Bussel, L. G. J., F. Ewert, and P. A. Leffelaar, 2011: Effects of data aggregation on simulations of crop phenology. Agr. Ecosyst. Enviro., 142, 75–84.
Wang, H. L., Y. T. Gan, R. Y. Wang, et al., 2008: Phenological trends in winter wheat and spring cotton in response to climate changes in Northwest China. Agric. For. Meteor., 148, 1242–1251.
Wang, J., E. L. Wang, L. P. Feng, et al., 2013: Phenological trends of winter wheat in response to varietal and temperature changes in the North China Plain. Field Crop Res., 144, 135–144.
White, J. W., B. A. Kimball, G. W. Wall, et al., 2011: Responses of time of anthesis and maturity to sowing dates and infrared warming in spring wheat. Field Crop. Res., 124, 213–222.
Xiao, D. P., F. L. Tao, Y. J. Liu, et al., 2013: Observed changes in winter wheat phenology in the North China Plain for 1981–2009. Int. J. Biometeor., 57, 275–285.
Xiao, D. P., J. P. Moiwo, F. L. Tao, et al., 2015: Spatiotemporal variability of winter wheat phenology in response to weather and climate variability in China. Mitig. Adapt. Strat. Gl., 20, 1191–1202.
Xiao, D. P., Y. Q. Qi, Y. J. Shen, et al., 2016: Impact of warming climate and cultivar change on maize phenology in the last three decades in North China Plain. Theor. Appl. Climatol., 124, 653–661.
Yang Xiaoguang, Liu Zhijuan, and Chen Fu, 2011: The possible effect of climate warming on northern limits of cropping system and crop yield in China. Agr. Sci. China, 10, 585–594.
Zhang, H. L., X. Zhao, X. G. Yin, et al., 2015: Challenges and adaptations of farming to climate change in the North China Plain. Climate Change, 129, 213–224.
Zhang Jingting, An Pingli, Pan Zhihua, et al., 2015: Adaptation to a warming-drying trend through cropping system adjustment over three decades: A case study in the northern agro-pastural ecotone of China. J. Meteor. Res., 29, 496–514.
Zhang Kai, Li Qiaozhen, and Wang Runyuan, 2012: Effects of sowing date on the growth and yield of spring wheat. Chinese Journal of Ecology, 31, 324–331. (in Chinese)
Zhang Li, Wu Tongwen, Xin Xiaoge, et al., 2012: Projections of annual mean air temperature and precipitation over the globe and in China during the 21st century by the BBC Climate System Model BCC-CSM1. 0. Acta Meteor. Sinica, 26, 362–375.
Zhang, T. Y., Y. Huang, and X. G. Yang, 2013: Climate warming over the past three decades has shortened rice growth duration in China and cultivar shifts have further accelerated the process for late rice. Global Change Biol., 19, 563–570.
Zhao Hong, Li Fengmin, Xiong Youcai, et al., 2009: Effects of air temperature change on spring wheat growth at different altitudes in northwest arid area. Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology, 20, 887–893. (in Chinese)
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Additional information
Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41401104), Natural Science Foundation of Hebei Province (D2015302017), China Postdoctoral Science Foundation Funded Project (2015M570167), and Science and Technology Planning Project of Hebei Academy of Science (16101).
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Xiao, D., Tao, F., Shen, Y. et al. Combined impact of climate change, cultivar shift, and sowing date on spring wheat phenology in Northern China. J Meteorol Res 30, 820–831 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s13351-016-5108-0
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s13351-016-5108-0