Abstract
Air pollution, causing significantly adverse health impacts and severe environmental problems, has raised great concerns in China in the past few decades. Guangdong Province faces major challenges to address the regional air pollution problem due to the lack of an emissions inventory. To fill this gap, an emissions inventory of primary fine particles (PM2.5) is compiled for the year 2012, and the key precursors (sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxides) are identified. Furthermore, policy packages are simulated during the period of 2012‒2030 to investigate the potential mitigation effect. The results show that in 2012, SO2, NOx, and PM2.5 emissions in Guangdong Province were as high as (951.7, 1363.6, and 294.9) kt, respectively. Industrial production processes are the largest source of SO2 and PM2.5 emissions, and transport is the top contributor of NOx emissions. Both the baseline scenario and policy scenario are constructed based on projected energy growth and policy designs. Under the baseline scenario, SO2, NOx, and PM2.5 emissions will almost double in 2030 without proper emissions control policies. The suggested policies are categorized into end-of- pipe control in power plants (ECP), end-of-pipe control in industrial processes (ECI), fuel improvement (FI), energy efficiency improvement (EEI), substitution-pattern development (SPD), and energy saving options (ESO). With the implementation of all these policies, SO2, NOx, and PM2.5 emissions are projected to drop to (303.1, 585.4, and 102.4) kt, respectively, in 2030. This inventory and simulated results will provide deeper insights for policy makers to understand the present situation and the evolution of key emissions in Guangdong Province.
Article PDF
Similar content being viewed by others
Explore related subjects
Discover the latest articles, news and stories from top researchers in related subjects.Avoid common mistakes on your manuscript.
References
Bollen J, Brink C (2014). Air pollution policy in Europe: quantifying the interaction with greenhouse gases and climate change policies. Energy Econ, 46: 202–215
Cai H, Xie S D (2007). Estimation of vehicular emission inventories in China from 1980 to 2005. Atmos Environ, 41(39): 8963–8979
CASY (2013). China Agriculture Statistical Yearbook 2013. Beijing: China Statistical Publishing House (in Chinese)
CESY (2013). China Energy Statistical Yearbook 2013. Beijing: China Statistical Publishing House (in Chinese)
Chang D, Song Y, Liu B (2009). Visibility trends in six megacities in China 1973–2007. Atmos Res, 94(2): 161–167
Chen F F, Chou S C, Lu T K (2013). Scenario analysis of the new energy policy for Taiwan’s electricity sector until 2025. Energy Policy, 61: 162–171
Chen ZM, Chen G Q (2011). An overview of energy consumption of the globalized world economy. Energy Policy, 39(10): 5920–5928
Chen Z M, Chen G Q (2013). Demand-driven energy requirement of world economy 2007: a multi-region input-output network simulation. Commun Nonlinear Sci Numer Simul, 18(7): 1757–1774
Chen Z M, Chen G Q, Zhou J B, Jiang M M, Chen B (2010). Ecological input-output modeling for embodied resources and emissions in Chinese economy 2005. Commun Nonlinear Sci Numer Simul, 15(7): 1942–1965
Deng J J, Du K, Wang K, Yuan C S, Zhao J J (2012). Long-term atmospheric visibility trend in Southeast China, 1973–2010. Atmos Environ, 59: 11–21
EPA (2009). Emissions Factors & AP 42, Compilation of Air Pollutant Emission Factors. Also available at: http://www.epa.gov/ttn/chief/ ap42/index.html
Feng L Y, Li J C, Pang X Q (2008). China’s oil reserve forecast and analysis based on peak oil models. Energy Policy, 36(11): 4149–4153
Garg A, Shukla P R, Bhattacharya S, Dadhwal V K (2001). Sub-region (district) and sector level SO2 and NOx emissions for India: assessment of inventories and mitigation flexibility. Atmos Environ, 35(4): 703–713
GSY (2013). Guangdong Statistical Yearbook 2013. Beijing: China Statistical Publishing House (in Chinese)
Guangdong Electric Power Design Institute (GEDI) (2013). Guangdong power supply situation analysis and responsed solutions (in Chinese)
Guangdong Provincial Development and Reform Commission (GDRC) (2013). Energy development strategy of Guangdong Province (in Chinese)
He K B, Huo H, Zhang Q, He D Q, An F, Wang M, Walsh M P (2005). Oil consumption and CO2 emissions in China’s road transport: current status, future trends, and policy implications. Energy Policy, 33(12): 1499–1507
Hill S C, Douglas Smoot L (2000). Modeling of nitrogen oxides formation and destruction in combustion systems. Pror Energy Combust Sci, 26(4–6): 417–458
Hong Kong-Guangdong Joint Working Group on Sustainable Development and Environmental Protection (HG-JWGSDEP) (2005). Air Emission Inventory Handbook for Pearl River Delta Region. CH2MIDC Hong Kong Ltd., Hong Kong Hong Kong-Guangdong Joint
Working Group on Sustainable Development and Environmental Protection (HG-JWGSDEP) (2008). Pearl River Delta Regional Air Quality Management Plan Mid-term Review Report. Also available at: http://www.legco.gov.hk/yr07-08/ chinese/panels/ea/papers/ea0128cb1-666-4-ec.pdf
Huang K, Fu J S, Gao Y, Dong X Y, Zhuang G S, Lin Y (2014). Role of sectoral and multi-pollutant emission control strategies in improving atmospheric visibility in the Yangtze River Delta, China. Environ Pollut, 184: 426–434
Huang Y, Bor Y J, Peng C Y (2011). The long-term forecast of Taiwan’s energy supply and demand: LEAP model application. Energy Policy, 39(11): 6790–6803
Huang Y, Luo J W, Xia B (2013). Application of cleaner production as an important sustainable strategy in the ceramic tile plant–A case study in Guangzhou, China. J Clean Prod, 43: 113–121
Jiang B B, Chen WY, Yu Y F, Zeng LM, David V (2008). The future of natural gas consumption in Beijing, Guangdong and Shanghai: an assessment utilizing MARKAL. Energy Policy, 36(9): 3286–3299
Kanada M, Fujita T, Fujii M, Ohnishi S (2013). The long-term impacts of air pollution control policy: historical links between municipal actions and industrial energy efficiency in Kawasaki City, Japan. J Clean Prod, 58: 92–101
Kikuchi Y, Kimura S, Okamoto Y, Koyama M (2014). A scenario analysis of future energy systems based on an energy flow model represented as functionals of technology options. Appl Energy, 132: 586–601
Klimont Z, Cofala J, Bertok I, Amann M, Heyes C, Gyarfas F (2002). Modelling particulate emissions in Europe. A Framework to Estimate Reduction Potential and Control Costs IR-02-076, IIASA, Austria, In: http://www iiasa ac at/rains/reports html
Kwon P S, Østergaard P (2014). Assessment and evaluation of flexible demand in a Danish future energy scenario. Appl Energy, 134: 309–320
Lei Y, Zhang Q, He K B, Streets D G (2011a). Primary anthropogenic aerosol emission trends for China, 1990–2005. Atmos Chem Phys, 11(3): 931–954
Lei Y, Zhang Q, Nielsen C, He K (2011b). An inventory of primary air pollutants and CO2 emissions from cement production in China, 1990–2020. Atmos Environ, 45(1): 147–154
Li J S, Chen G Q, Hayat T, Alsaedi A (2015). Mercury emissions by Beijing’s fossil energy consumption: based on environmentally extended input–output analysis. Renew Sustain Energy Rev, 41: 1167–1175
Liang M C, Wang Y, Wang G H (2014). China’s Low-carbon-city development with ets: forecast on the energy consumption and carbon emission of Chongqing. Energy Procedia, 61: 2596–2599
Liu F, Klimont Z, Zhang Q, Cofala J, Zhao L, Huo H, Nguyen B, Schöpp W, Sander R, Zheng B, Hong C P, He K, Amann M, Heyes C (2013). Integrating mitigation of air pollutants and greenhouse gases in Chinese cities: development of GAINS-City model for Beijing. J Clean Prod, 58: 25–33
Liu W, Li H (2011). Improving energy consumption structure: a comprehensive assessment of fossil energy subsidies reform in China. Energy Policy, 39(7): 4134–4143
Majumdar D, Gajghate D G (2011). Sectoral CO2, CH4, N2O and SO2 emissions from fossil fuel consumption in Nagpur City of Central India. Atmos Environ, 45(25): 4170–4179
Meng J, Liu J F, Xu Y, Tao S (2015). Tracing Primary PM2.5 emissions via Chinese supply chains. Environ Res Lett, 10(5): 054005
Ministry of Environmental Protection (MEP) (2010). The manual of pollutants-producing and discharging coefficients from industrial sources. Also available at: http://www.cnemc.cn/publish/105/news/news_12893.html (in Chinese)
Ministry of Environmental Protection (MEP) (2011). Main pollutant total emission reduction accounting rules during the 12th Five-year plans. Also available at: http://www.zhb.gov.cn/gkml/hbb/bwj/ 201206/t20120605_230944.htm (in Chinese)
Ministry of Environmental Protection (MEP) (2014). The technical manual of emission inventories of atmospheric fine particulate matter (PM2.5) (Exposure Draft). Available fromhttp://www.zhb.gov.cn/ gkml/hbb/bgth/201401/W020140124409250653376.pdf (in Chinese)
Mo H Q, Li L, Lai W, Zhao M, Pu J G, Zhou Y, Deng S H (2015). Characterization of summer PM2.5 aerosols from four forest areas in Sichuan, SW China. Particuology, 20: 94–103
Ohara T, Akimoto H, Kurokawa J I, Horii N, Yamaji K, Yan X, Hayasaka T (2007). An Asian emission inventory of anthropogenic emission sources for the period 1980–2020. Atmos Chem Phys, 7(16): 4419–4444
Pan L J, Xie Y B, Li W (2013). An analysis of emission reduction of chief air pollutants and greenhouse gases in Beijing based on the LEAP Model. Procedia Environ Sci, 18: 347–352
PGGP (The people’s Government of Guangdong Province) (2009). Measures on Prevention and Control of Air Pollution in Pearl River Delta of Guangdong Province. Also available at: http://www.gd.gov. cn/govpub/zfwj/zfxxgk/gz/200903/t20090330_88639.htm (in Chinese)
PGGP (The people’s Government of Guangdong Province) (2014a). Action Plan on Low-Carbon Development for Energy Saving and Emissions Reduction in Guangdong Province (2014?2015). Also available at: http://zwgk.gd.gov.cn/006939748/201410/t20141022_551390.html (in Chinese)
PGGP (The people’s Government of Guangdong Province) (2014b). Action Plan on Prevention and Control of Air Pollution in Guangdong Province (2014-2017). Also available at: http://zwgk. gd.gov.cn/006939748/201402/t20140214_467051.html (in Chinese)
Pope C A, Dockery D W (2006). Health effects of fine particulate air pollution: lines that connect. J Air Waste Manag Assoc, 56(6): 709–742
Pui D Y H, Chen S C, Zuo Z (2014). PM2.5 in China: measurements, sources, visibility and health effects, and mitigation. Particuology, 13: 1–26
Qiu P P, Tian H Z, Zhu C Y, Liu K Y, Gao J J, Zhou J R (2014). An elaborate high resolution emission inventory of primary air pollutants for the Central Plain Urban Agglomeration of China. Atmos Environ, 86: 93–101
Schreifels J J, Fu Y, Wilson E J (2012). Sulfur dioxide control in China: policy evolution during the 10th and 11th Five-year Plans and lessons for the future. Energy Policy, 48: 779–789
Shabbir R, Ahmad S S (2010). Monitoring urban transport air pollution and energy demand in Rawalpindi and Islamabad using leap model. Energy, 35(5): 2323–2332
Song Y, Zhang Y, Dai W. (2011). PM2.5 sources and their effects on human health in China: case report. In: Nriagu J O, ed. Encyclopedia of Environmental Health. Burlington: Elsevier, 606–613
Streets D G, Yarber K F, Woo J H, Carmichael G R (2003). Biomass burning in Asia: annual and seasonal estimates and atmospheric emissions. Global Biogeochem Cycles, 17(4): doi: 10.1029/2003GB002040
Tang X L, Zhang Y, Yi H H, Ma J Y, Pu L (2012). Development a detailed inventory framework for estimating major pollutants emissions inventory for Yunnan Province, China. Atmos Environ, 57: 116–125
Tao Z, Zhao L, Changxin Z (2011). Research on the prospects of lowcarbon economic development in China based on LEAP model. Energy Procedia, 5: 695–699
Wang H K, Fu L X, Bi J (2011). CO2 and pollutant emissions from passenger cars in China. Energy Policy, 39(5): 3005–3011
Wang H, Wheeler D (2005). Financial incentives and endogenous enforcement in China’s pollution levy system. Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 49(1): 174–196
Wang Y S, Wang L L (2014). The sources, impact and regulation of atmospheric particulate matter. Sci Soc, 2: 9–18 (in Chinese)
Wang Y, Li J W (2008). China’s present situation of coal consumption and future coal demand forecast. China Population. Chn Popu Res Envi, 18(3): 152–155
Winther M (2008). New national emission inventory for navigation in Denmark. Atmos Environ, 42(19): 4632–4655
Xue B, Mitchell B, Geng Y, Ren W X, Müller K, Ma Z X, Puppim de Oliveira J A, Fujita T, Tobias M (2014). A review on China’s pollutant emissions reduction assessment. Ecol Indic, 38: 272–278
Ying Q, Kleeman M J (2006). Source contributions to the regional distribution of secondary particulate matter in California. Atmos Environ, 40(4): 736–752
Zhang B, Chen Z M, Xia X H, Xu X Y, Chen Y B (2013). The impact of domestic trade on China’s regional energy uses: a multi-regional input–output modeling. Energy Policy, 63: 1169–1181
Zhang H F, Ye X N, Cheng T T, Chen J M, Yang X, Wang L, Zhang R Y (2008b). A laboratory study of agricultural crop residue combustion in China: emission factors and emission inventory. Atmos Environ, 42(36): 8432–8441
Zhang H, Ye X, Cheng T, Chen J, Yang X, Wang L, Zhang R (2008a). A laboratory study of agricultural crop residue combustion in China: emission factors and emission inventory. Atmos Environ, 42(36): 8432–8441
Zhang H, Zhang B, Bi J (2015). More efforts, more benefits: air pollutant control of coal-fired power plants in China. Energy, 80: 1–9
Zhao B, Ma J Z (2008). Development of an air pollutant emissions inventory for Tianjin Acta Scientiae Cirsumstantiae, 28(2): 368–375 (in Chinese)
Zhao Z Y, Chang R D, Zillante G (2014). Challenges for China’s energy conservation and emission reduction. Energy Policy, 74: 709–713
Zheng J Y, Zhang L J, Che W W, Zheng Z Y, Yin S S (2009). A highly resolved temporal and spatial air pollutant emission inventory for the Pearl River Delta region, China and its uncertainty assessment. Atmos Environ, 43(32): 5112–5122
Zhou X S, Tong L, Han J H, Guo S (2013). The necessity of oil products standard promotion to improve the air quality. Petroleum Refinery Engineering, 43(07): 61–64 (in Chinese)
Acknowledgements
This work was supported by the Natural Science Foundation of Guangdong Province (2014A030310222).
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Chen, H., Meng, J. Emissions inventory and scenario analyses of air pollutants in Guangdong Province, China. Front. Earth Sci. 11, 46–62 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11707-016-0551-x
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11707-016-0551-x