Electoral patterns and voting behavior of Bihar in Assembly elections from 2010 to 2020: a spatial analysis

Abstract

The present research paper develops its theme with a special focus on Bihar State Assembly elections analysis. It concentrates on the social groups' electoral pattern and voting behavior in the Bihar election. It tried to formulate the specific voting design based on empirical electoral data favoring various political parties contesting the election. The issues entailed in the mobilization of the voters of Bihar has been critically examined through historical and social perspective. For this objective, the paper analyses the historical, cultural, religious, social, and other determinants that show the voting behavior of socially stratified voters of the Bihar state of India. Generally, the paper compares the electoral results, controlling factors, and social implications of Bihar's three consecutive assembly elections: 2010, 2015, and 2020 elections. This research paper is theoretical and utilizes the secondary electoral data derived from the Election Commission of India. The archival sources are other means that helped form arguments and articulation related to the electoral campaign and mass mobilization. The quantitative data are further represented through a visual diagram and a GIS-based electoral map. Interestingly, Bihar produces a specific political atmosphere where the quality of place assigns its unique identities. In the geo-cultural setting of Bihar, Caste plays a pivotal role in controlling electoral behavior. Though, Bihar's recent election of 2020 shows the re-emerging social issues like "class," sometimes" religion," and "Populism "in changing social dynamics, which occupy the central space overshadowing the identity of caste.

Introduction

Democracy is the voice of the people or masses. In the indirect democracy, the election is central and requires a particular systemic order and processes. So, in parliamentary democracy, there is a number of political parties that participate in the election process. In this context, Indian democracy is the largest and most prosperous because more than 50 crore voters participate in the election of their representatives (Soroka & Wlezien, 2010). Voting behavior involves a study of human political behavior in the context of voting in elections (Chatterjee, 2008). Voting behavior is shaped structurally and involves the phenomenological experiences of the social groups with relation to their living environment. The mental images that are reflected in their voting responses are not free from their immediate social and cultural associations (Katju, 2021). Sometimes, voters associate themselves under certain "imagined identities" and "shared experiences." It causes a sense of belongingness under the umbrella of a particular caste and ethnic group. Therefore, like castes sub-castes, these identities project a name or sound and reflect the "experiences" nurtured over a place. Sometimes, the election process generates specific electoral psychology and time-based electoral spatiality. However, this spatiality of the election may not always sustain for a longer duration. Still, the role of media, social agencies, backup teams, and populist tendencies have expanded the time compression over this electoral spatial construct (Neyazi, 2011). It survived until the electoral campaign, process, and result. Sometimes it stayed for a longer duration and reflected in the electoral psychology of voters (Rahul, 2016). The control over this specific spatial structure is in the hand of internal and external forces of the place (Buttimer & Seamon, 2015).

One of the significant dimensions of the study of elections in a changing society like Bihar can be constructed on the patterns of continuity and change as crystallization in elections over a period of time (Flinders, 2012). Voting in an election is a complex phenomenon and depends on a host of socio-economic and psychological factors like caste, feudal state machinery, informal terror (Biswas & Mondal, 2019). Issues of imagined identity that have an emotional appeal like caste, religion, language, or region are more profound as determinants in the Bihar election. These identities are constructed not in the vacuum but grounded in the socio-cultural history of India and Bihar and not free from these historical experiences (Chandra, 2014). The segmented social structure already constituted the social segregation of Bihar. Further, the feelings as "differential units" among the various social groups have evolved the voters' varied meaning and identity connotation. During the election phase, it became more visible and was recognized into caste, gender, ethnic, and linguistic identity group. (Jeffrey & Young, 2012). The victory or defeat of a party depends on how a party or leader marshal support by appealing to these emerging sentiments or forging coalitions of the groups and parties based on these feelings considered here to understand voters' perceptions and opinions, class, caste, occupation, education levels, and rural/urban background. More significant issues of democracy, such as development and welfare, markets and freedom, equality and justice, etc., get interwoven in these interpretations (Bilakovics, 2012).

Election results in Bihar in recent years are increasingly becoming enigmatic. Bihar's population of 110 million is deeply divided along caste lines. The majority of the population belongs to the categories identified in the Indian constitution as 'Other Backward Classes (OBCs) and Scheduled Castes’ (Caste Census 1932). It is based on socially and educationally disadvantaged communities. Scheduled Castes are more disadvantaged than OBCs. Most of the voters of Bihar are not even aware of reforms and do not bother about more significant issues or long-term policies (Low, 2016). However, voters also prioritize their immediate requirements such as roads, drinking water, house-sites and houses, subsidized food grains, cloth, etc.

Recently, the political parties have tried to change the caste and identity-based social mobilization in the Bihar election. Janata Dal-United leader Nitish Kumar has projected himself as the leader of Bihar, having wider support across his caste groups. BJP has successfully built a cross-caste, cross-class alliance (Palshikar, 2015). But the electoral campaign of BJP reflects the religion-centric mass mobilization (Jaffrelot & Verniers, 2020), where the unity of all the castes under a specific fold was perceived. The iconic leadership of Narendra Modi, Prime minister of India, has projected the Bihar assembly election into the populist domain. The populist tendencies have constructed a unique identity of electoral politics where "collective imaginations" are occupied in a unilateral orientation of voters' responses (Low, 2009). But the populism of RJD leader Lalu Prasad Yadav and his demographic bases of a few selected castes and region groups also have a more significant implication that controls the behavior aspect of electorates. The political binary has been evolved in the election campaign across the State of Bihar, where the two alliances have created the bipolar adjustment of power in the State (Panda et al. 2020). However, apart from communal and caste-based mobilization, the electoral campaign and issues have a civic turn also. The BJP leadership thought that it could win the Bihar election by harping on these slogans of 'Atmanirbhar Bharat' on the one hand and the Congress (Bijli, Sadak, and Pani) plank on the other (Palshikar, 2019). Increasing poverty, unemployment, and neglect of agriculture became the themes in the RJD campaign.

In contrast, the BJP's vote is concentrated in its heartland of the northern and central parts of Bihar (Singh, 2020). But in the recent trend, the popularity of the BJP is growing among all sections of the society under the leadership of Narendra Modi. The relentless pursuit of identity politics and religious mobilization based on Hindutva has created fragmentation for over a decade rather than a stable multiparty system expected in a post-Congress polity in Bihar (Mathew & Moore, 2011).

The changing nature of Bihar politics during the last 10–15 years is not reflected in the declining dominance of the national parties, the further rise of regional and sectional parties, and the stabilization and acceptance of coalition politics. However, for authors like Witsoe (2016), caste and community identity base elections weaken the ideal democratic ethos and divert attention from other socio-economic issues like poverty, unemployment, crime, corruption, women security, and farmers' distress. In some cases, caste, class, and community divisions lead to tension, conflict, and even violence. In its place, the rise of regionalism and the multiparty system has led to a changed political scenario in which voter expectations are judged according to differential consciousness among voters and information flows (Biswas et al., 2021). A localized party with a small regional base has now grown into the leading political force in the country with a mass following. The declining trend of the Congress seems matched with an expansion of the Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP) of similar proportions (Kumar et al., 2008).

The essence of political force and mobilization on faith-based identity is visible in the recent election in India, either parliamentary or State assembly elections of northern states. The religious face of the Indian population reflects in the social milieu and electoral mobilization. The binary of "we" versus "others" is affecting the religious polarization, at least on a mental level (Davoudi & Strange, 2008). The recent assembly elections of Bihar (2010, 2015, 2020) show the electoral campaign on the faith-based symbols. The emergence of Muttahida Ittahidul Muslim as a significant political actor in Bihar politics signifies the religious utility of social and physiological elements of insecurity and fear of minority community in India, particularly in Bihar (Knott, 2010). Pan Indian communal mobilization mixed with castes' assimilation undoubtedly impacted the reverse association of "others selves" is another feature of the recently occurred Bihar assembly election. As an essential element of Indian society, religious issues nurtured the human mind in the socio-economic life of human beings.

On the other hand, the laboratory of Bihar political space produces the purely different ramifications of assembly election. The rejuvenation of the Left political party, especially CPI-ML, is another topic that generates the "political campaign" on individual linkages and working-class associations. Though the tactical alliance of the Left group with RJD has enhanced the winnability of left leaders in the election, the continuous struggle of Left parties at a fundamental level cannot be ignored in the assembly election of 2019.

However, the continued struggle to transform caste consciousness into class consciousness required sustained political engagement to the voters at the grassroots level. The larger number of agricultural and industrial workers, migrants, peasants, daily wage workers have evolved their affiliation since the history of the Naxal Bari Movement in Bihar (Wiener, 2015). Though, after1991, after implementing the Mandal commission report, the identity of caste tried to submerge the class identities, especially in North India. Bihar, however, has been the platform for socialist movements, but post-1991, politics was dominated on the caste line, and the hierarchical boundary of caste became more rigid (Ingole, 2021). The evolution of BJP and its strength at the central level influences the whole State (Doron and Rao, 2009). The emerging trends of politics in Bihar are characterized by most variants that control the voter's imaginations in India. It provides the spatial context of populism, caste-class-based mobilization, religious sentiments, power politics, and development issues as significant detriments affecting voting behavior.

Bihar has produced a distinct political culture since the historical memoir as a social space. Under the democratic civic governance, the Monarchical and feudal regime has important influences on the political history of the Bihar state (Sinharay, 2012). However, the electoral dynamic of Bihar is primarily controlled by the extreme political socialization of the citizens mostly living in the rural affinities. The social structure of Bihar controlled the masses reflected in individuals' voting behavior. The levels of social stratification based on caste and class identities maintains the imagined environment of individuals where individuals will not be free but respond as a member of a specific social group (McMillan, 2012). Under this social environment, political parties utilize the cognitive frame of voters for their electoral mobilization. Though, general influences of "waive election" and its attributes influenced the recent election in India where populist tendencies tried to superimpose the prevailing political situation. The instruments of "bio colonialism," media, propaganda, and other exterior agencies create their rationale at the mental platform of voters. Attempts of a few political parties are to weaken the caste boundaries and make it fluid for electoral persuasion at a general level. Few political parties try to get involved in the politics of accommodation. Leaders of various caste groups were adjusted with sharing of powers and seats. They develop allies with them and utilize their identity for electoral mobilization and electoral gain. However, the electoral politics in Bihar has seen another important element of imaginations control and electoral behavior that is religion.

Religion is one of the most dominant factors that many demographic compositions can easily mobilize (Hasan, 2010). The utilization of faith in the election in Bihar has caused electorally mobilizing the masses to convert them into a high rate of voters. This particular sentiment produces the "binary structuralism" and "bipolar religious order of society and creates the environment of self and "other selves." Already existing social order and social sentiments become the readymade ground for the electoral campaign by political parties (Low, 2016). Empirically Bihar elections provided a strong case study where each social instrument has imprints in electoral politics. Caste, Class, Religion, Historical memories, Iconization, populism have been strictly utilized during the election. Among them, caste, class, and religion are important in the election; higher rigid boundaries of identities, specifically caste, have a significant role in Bihar politics.

Objectives

• To examine the patterns and factors influencing the voting behavior in the State assembly elections from (2010 to 2020) in Bihar.

• To analyze the spatial pattern of voter turnout in the State Assembly elections from 2010 to 2020.

• To analyze changing patterns of voter turnout from 2010 to 2020 State Assembly Elections.

• To compare the voting behavior of electorates in state assembly elections of 2010, 2015, and 2020.

• To examine the voting behavior of reserved seats in the Bihar Assembly election.

Research questions

• How has the pattern of Bihar state assembly elections changed?

• How is "caste" a vital determinant in the Bihar assembly election?

• How do populism, religious sentiment, and socio-economic issues shape the voting behavior of Bihar electorates?

• How the left based political parties' organizations influence voting behavior?

Literature review

Political behavior and structure have an essential role in the modern democratic process. Most of the voting behavior research has been studied in the Indian context. There is limited and rigorous research in the state contexts. This literature has focused on the sociological aspects and impacts of the changing structure and pattern of voting behavior landscape, with minimal economic and demographic data support. To address this issue, some common patterns that influence electoral behavior. In general, the entire volume of the literature that helped to formulate this paper's core can be classified into many groups as far as understanding is concerned. One group of literature points towards the causes that pertain to the situations that helped the RJD maintain its support base in the state for the long term.

In contrast, the second group of studies outlines the limitations and ground realities that lead to RJD and Congress's fall in the state (Kinnvall, 2019; Kumar, 2019). Still, other important literature was used in this paper, which helped in various other aspects of the study. For example, a group of literature discussed the background of the earlier elections in the state and how the party system in Bihar emerged (Mehra, 2013; Moghadam, 2019). Another group of literature discussed the social attributes of the election. A third set was used for theoretical formulation and the statistical understanding of the paper (Diwakar, 2017; Harriss, 2015). All of these aspects have been outlined here in a very brief manner. The influence of caste, identity, religion, space on elections, political participation, and voting behavior has been studied in India, but in Bihar, it is still in the pre-stage. In India, there have been several studies on the nature and functions of voting behavior. These studies mainly focus on the caste, identity, religion, impact of voting behavior. An overview of the Indian electoral study of the literature suggests that there has been very little research on the impact of caste, identity, and space on political participation of voting behavior in Bihar.

A number of studies have been done mainly by political scientists, sociologists, a psephologist in India. They are mainly based on historical and descriptive analysis and lack of spatial perspectives of the empirical data. Again all these studies have been ignored spatial perspective and micro-level studies. Bihar is heterogeneous in physical and cultural factors like language, religion, and socio-economic status. So the present study plays a very significant role in the healthy and welfare democracy of Bihar.

Therefore, Jeffrey and Young (2012) proposed research would focus on the root cause of the Samajwadi Party's decline and backward caste/class movement status. SP claims itself to be progeny, even after being the single largest ruling party in UP.

Alam (2015) focuses on women as players in the political process. They have participated in politics through a variety of creative and innovative forms. Women as a special category of citizens are constantly influenced by and influencing the related histories of other social groups like Dalits, minorities, and backward classes.

The idea of caste-based politics in the country was vividly analyzed by Harriss (2015) in his work naming 'Is India Becoming More Democratic?' Some works discussed the Left's failure to uplift the socially backward.

Misra and Singh (2018) analyzed how the local leaders' corruption influenced various caste groups' decisions and how Muslims, one of the influential social groups, deserted the Left, paving the way for the opposition's victory in the election.

Sharma (2020) gave credit to the Left for maintaining peace in the state; thus, Muslims, in general, felt secure and voted for them, as well as Left provided more for the poor; therefore, they won their support thoroughly. Still, Left's support base dwindled in urban poor and slum regions, in the sections of the industrial workers, as well as among women and first-time voters; was some of the observations made by Yadav and Kumar in their work.

Michelutti (2020) represented in her article 'caste and politics in India' that caste played a crucial role in Indian elections history. This article points out the caste question in contemporary India, in the history of caste movements and politics in the late nineteenth and twentieth centuries.

Problems and significance

Bihar provides an interesting laboratory for electoral studies. The historical changes of the voting behavior of Bihar electorates crossing the phase of Pre-Mondal, Post-Mondal, and contemporary phase; project the varying factors are controlling the psyche of voters in Bihar. In recent elections, the society of Bihar has experienced fragmented voting behavior where spatial variation among the major determinants of voting behavior is recorded. Voters are undoubtedly the masters of a democracy. It is very difficult to read the mind of voters. Their change of mind from one election to another, how they decide to vote for a particular party or a candidate, reveals their commitment. The study of voting behavior will leave us enlightened to the needs and aspirations of the common man, and being ethically true to our efforts, we can rationalize the electoral behavior. Only through interaction with voters can we understand what they hold in their hearts. The study of electoral behavior becomes all the more essential in a progressive. Unless a voter understands the value of his vote and is pragmatic enough to choose between a good and a wrong candidate, his casting a franchise is not only a sheer wastage but contributes to the deterioration of democratic institutions. Voting behavior in a society gets influenced by many interrelated factors. Identification of such elements in the State of Himachal Pradesh is one of the many objectives of this study. Elections are nothing but a final sanction to a group of people to form and run a government. "Among the human differences that express themselves in different ways of casting ballots are traditions, localism, economic motivation, religious beliefs, nationalities, races, and sex.

All the developments like social, economic, political, cultural, regional, religious influence policy and decision-making of the government, hence the study of the electoral behavior of the people becomes important. Assembly elections of 2010, 2015, and 2020 are the case studies through which we can learn the basic elements imbibed in shaping the electoral behavior of Bihar.

Study area

Bihar, the name is derived from Vihara, a land of monasteries. Bihar is located in India's eastern region, with Nepal to the north, West Bengal to the east, Uttar Pradesh to the west, and Jharkhand to the south. Bihar is the birthplace of Jainism and Buddhism, as well as a supporter of Sikhism and Hinduism. Bihar is the third largest populous State of India (Census 2011). The total population of Bihar is 9.9 crores (Census 2011). Its capital is Patna, located in the East-central part of the State. Bihar has a total area of 99,200 Km² sq., which is 4.23% of the total area of India. In Bihar, more than 80 percent of the population are Hindus by religion (Census, 2011). Identity politics in Bihar is closely linked to the Hindu caste system. It has a 61.35% literacy rate and 911 sex ratio. The population density of Bihar is 829. Bihar is one of the most socially and economically backward states in India. It is the most prized possession for any political party in the country because it provides a larger population and has political 40 members to Lok Sabha and 243 seats in State Assembly elections.

Bihar had a significant role in India's early history. For centuries, it was the seat of imperial authority and the center of Indian culture and civilization. Bihar played a significant and vital role in the Independence of India. MK Gandhi and many other leaders of the independence movement held marches and rallies in Bihar. Babu Kunwar Singh of Jagdishpur is the most famous independence activist of Bihar. Chatth Puja Almost all civilizations worship the ‘sun god,’ but Bihar has a unique form. Ashoka, the great king of the Mauryan dynasty of Bihar, is known to the people worldwide as the greatest preacher of the words of Lord Buddha. India is known as an ancient center for learning, especially due to the place in Bihar called Nalanda. Gaya is a famous Hindu pilgrimage site. The holiest destination in Buddhism is near Bodh Gaya, where the Buddha obtained enlightenment; the Mahabodhi temple complex at Bodh Gaya was declared a UNESCO World Heritage site in 2002.

Data base methodology

The present study is purely based on secondary sources of electoral data derived from the Election Commission of India and the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS). The qualitative methods and approaches are adopted to frame the conceptual argument about electoral behavior in the State of Bihar. Theoretical and analytical approaches are the qualitative tool undertaken in this discussion. The Newspapers Report, election documents, and manifesto are the archival sources consulted to explain political parties' role in electoral campaigns and mobilization. The quantitative data of election results are presented in a diagram, line graph, and map with the help of the GIS-based Geo-Spatial Technique.

In terms of the applicability of spatial and humanistic geography traditions, it covers a case study of Bihar. The result and outcome of the study are represented through a line graph. The effects of the socio-economic variable on voter turnout are analyzed. The selected socio-economic variable has been considered the independent variable, and constituency-wise, the percent of voter turnout has been recorded as the dependent variable. The relationship between socio-economic variables and voter turnout was examined with the help of Karl spear sons' technique, and that has been tested through SPSS (Version 20).

Cultural space identities and election in Bihar politics

The concept of political culture is the psychological manifestation of a political system based upon the attitude, beliefs, expectations, and symbols held by the people who are the basic units of any culture or society (Nielsen et al., 2020). The people's needs, aspirations, ideas, desires, and orientations shape the political culture. Political culture has its own separate identity, distinguishing it from the social culture (Pahre, 2008). Political culture thus is a complex operating system of empirical beliefs, expressive symbols, and values, which explains the situation in which political action takes place (Woodward et al., 2012)."Political cultures are the sets of symbols and meanings or styles of action that organize political claims-making and opinion-forming" (Low & Smith, 2013). Political culture is an overall distribution of citizens' orientation to political objects. Political culture embodies individual attitudes, beliefs, and values that underpin a particular political system. Pye and Verba (2015) define 'political culture'; "Political culture is the set of attitudes, beliefs, and sentiments which gives order and meaning to a political system. It emphasizes both the political ideals and the operating norms of a polity. Political culture is the product of both the collective history of a political system and the life histories of the members of that system. Thus it is rooted equally in public events and private experiences (Coakley, 2017). A distinct political culture characterizes every political system, and each political culture is dominated by various sub-grouping based on race, language, ethnicity, religion, etc.

If the people are mixed, social differences, identity or cultural variations, political discords, economic rivalries, and historical antagonisms are manifested (Jaffrelot, 2010). The minorities are the product of this situation. The principal dimension of political culture is a national identity, which means the individual's sense of membership in the political community (Agnew, 2013). Political culture is effective when it can generate loyalty and commitment from the individuals, making them feel an integrated part of society. The constituents of political culture thus include the image of self, the socio-political responses, intermediate structures such as political parties and interest groups, and finally, the feelings· about the general political system (Agnew & Shin, 2019).

Brown (2019) identified five important dimensions of political culture: A sense of national identity, attitude toward one's self as a participant in political life, attitude toward one's fellow citizens, attitude and expectations regarding governmental output and performance, and attitude toward the political process of decision making.

Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP) has an alliance with the Rashtriya Janata Dal (considered to be the party of the Kurmis), Hindustani Awam Morcha (Musahar), andVikassheel Insaan Party (Nishad). BJP alliance in Bihar with other minor parties is influential among most backward castes such as kurmis and Bhumihar. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) strategy focuses on the non-Jadav, Dalit, and upper caste votes to add to their core Savarna(forward caste) vote bank (Ogden, 2012). To appease its savarnabase, the BJP offers them representation at the organizational level and shows its commitment towards Brahminical-Hindutva agendas, such as constructing a Ram temple in Ayodhya. Election strategy has three components: alliance behavior, candidate selection, and the election campaign (Iyer & Shrivastava, 2018). BJP has followed all three strategies to gain political success in the Bihar state assembly election. It is not only the Muslims that are threatened by the rise of Modi but a large section of the poor and oppressed castes who know that Modi not only represents a particular kind of politics but a particular kind of development (Kumar at al., 2008).

The Dalits are core supporters of the Rashtriya Janata Dal and Janata Dal-United, contesting an alliance in alliance in the 2015 Bihar state assembly election and won above 200 seats. But when separated and contested in the 2020 Bihar state election, the scenario is changed in maximum seats, lost by JDU. Still, RJD holds its position because of the support of Muslim and Yadav voters. The political arena in Bihar assembly, a museum of identity, where caste and religion are perpetually in a love and hate relationship. Dalits continue to reject the BJP because of its political culture and social agenda, but these days, under Narendra Modi's leadership, Dalits are also supporting BJP. The populism of RJD leader Lalu Prasad Yadav and his demographic bases of a few selected caste and identity groups succeed in Bihar politics.

The resilience of identity politics is even more evident among the Muslims who have supported Congress irrespective of their class to counter Modi's BJP (Sardesai, 2015). The fragmentation of the Muslim vote strengthens anti-incumbency sentiment against the national government and the BJP's alliances with two regional parties, which draw their support from scheduled castes and OBC. As an important element of Indian society, religious issues nurtured the human mind in the socio-economic life of human beings. A faith-based association creates a "sense of belongingness" among the followers of the same faith. Bihar politics signifies the religious utility of social and physiological elements of insecurity and fear of minority communities in India, particularly in Bihar.

The Rashtriya Janata Dal represents a significant social and political movement of some Dalit groups, but it has secured the support of the wider population of the rural poor. The Jadav/Chamar caste group makes up more than half of the total Dalit population and is found in villages across the State.

Role of Muslims in Bihar politics

Muslims are the most significant religious minority in Bihar. In Bihar, Muslims constitute 16.5% of the State's total population (Census 2011). There has been an attempt to represent Muslims as a single, monolithic, homogeneous group in political terms and social science discourses. The Indian Constitution refers to SC, ST, and backward groups, but we do not find any mention of 'Dalit Muslims' as a category (Sajjad, 2010). Muslims are divided into numerous sects such as Wahabis, Deobandis, ahlehadis, Bohras, khojas, etc. Muslims are also divided into regional, class, and caste lines, e.g., sheiks, Ansaris, Qureshi's, Pathans, Syeds, bagwans, and so on (Desai & Temsah, 2014).

Religious practices, religious beliefs, and the religious composition of households also affect voting behavior. Religious beliefs, finally, may be a source of social and political values and attitudes that in turn influence political behavior. Political parties frequently play an important role in generating relationships between the dimensions of religion and political behavior. Religious belonging affects the likelihood of party support, dividing religious groups in electoral politics.

Muslim voting behavior in the election of India bank on their socio-cultural background and their political psychology. The politics among Muslim voters are dominated by long-term sustained fear and security (Rehman, 2013). The historical background, cultural and communal events, social security are primarily utilized for political mobilization. Considered as Monolith Community, Muslim voters are simultaneously used as a vote bank. Secularism is one of the dominant political theories that also controls Muslim voters. However, Muslim voters' religious orientation and social and civic affiliation have been shaped in favor of Congress RJD and left-biased political parties. The single factor that determines the voter's behavior of Muslim voters is the anti-BJP voting response. However, BJP utilizes this sentiment as a larger Hindu unity based on religion-based mobilization.

The politics of social fragmentation unification of masses on religion line in terms of caste identity assimilation into religious identity is one of the most dominant factors and emerging tendencies that is also reflected in the Bihar assembly election (Sarangi & Pai, 2020). The pan India Nationalist campaign, with the help of media agencies, produced the imagined identity and virtual consciousness, which are shaping the collective imagined force ultimately; thus, religion centrist imagined force are swept into political influence by the BJP. However, theoretically, this imagined identity produced Antagonism and a sense of other-selves within the Muslim community. The mental space of an isolated group politically considers itself as out of the mainstream. The emerging sentiments and fear are being utilized by other political forces that project the sentiment-based affiliation in AIMIM. AIMIM has won 5 seats in the state assembly election of Bihar tried to reconfigure the identity of Muslim and down-trodden people.

Elections provided an opportunity for the citizens to choose the political representation they wanted. If the minorities' vote is of such critical importance, what is the significance of the majority vote? Why does the majority vote not determine the final result of the elections? What is the profile of the majority voter and a minority voter? At the state level, it is possible to argue that the voting behavior of Muslims is influenced primarily by two factors—the nature of political competition and choices available in the State and the size of the community.

Various parties and organizations held public meetings in the Muslim- dominated areas and highlighted different issues to influence the voters (Sajjad, 2014). Tejaswi Jadav held a public meeting among other Muslim communities. He highlighted his government's achievements, including recruiting 9 percent Muslims to the police force. He criticized the CAA NRC bill and emphasized the unity of the Muslims and the backward classes to fight against the communal forces (Varma, 2020). Tejaswi Jadav can maintain a Muslim vote bank in favor of RJD, which is reflected in the 2020 state assembly election.

Most political parties would like to give an impression of a herd mentality among Muslims. If previous voting patterns are any indication, the Muslims are neither an exclusive vote bank of the Congress nor have they consistently voted unitedly (Alam, 2009). Vote banks are more a creation of the political parties rather than religious or communal behavior. Moreover, the Muslim community is not the only community to vote unitedly. Other communities also have voted unitedly. Political exigencies of the parties and economic interests of the elites result in projections of the vote banks (Auerbach et al., 2021).

Muslims are at present insecure due to the onslaught of the Sangh Parivar's Hindutva, the soft Hindutva of the Congress, the trauma of the communal riots, and the increasing atrocities under NPR, CAA, and NRC (Chandrachud, 2020). Therefore, Muslims are likely to vote unitedly to defeat Congress and the BJP. This, however, should not give rise to the misconception of the permanent vote bank of the Muslims since the Muslims are as divided as the Hindus on caste, regional and sectarian lines. The Left Front retained most of its support and increased its support among the OBC and Dalits. Though, the support for the Left Front has declined among Muslims.

Caste and identity politics in Bihar

In contemporary Bihar politics, caste identity has been a defining feature of identity politics. The caste system has played a crucial role in organizing social relations and legitimizing social hierarchies. (Roy, 2013). The focus on the caste identity of the candidate is important to highlight because it updates the traditional view of identity politics, which typically emphasizes the "identity labels" of any political party. In recent times, an important feature of Bihar politics has been the rise of identity-based political parties representing regional, linguistic, religious, and caste identities (Nicholson, 2008). The nature of colonial structures, demographics, and socio-economic variations generate identity politics prevalent in the State of Bihar. Identity considerations became particularly acute in the 1980s and 1990s when Bihar was ground zero for the movement for lower-caste empowerment (Sahay, 2009). The torchbearer for this movement was a wily politician named Lalu Prasad Yadav, who became the State's chief minister in 1990 and would dominate state politics for 15 years. Yadav skillfully combined language ethnic symbolism and built a political coalition of disparate castes and communities that would contest and eventually oust the long-established hold of the upper castes (Sircar, 2020). The focus on the caste identity of the candidate is imperative to outline because it updates the traditional view of identity politics, which typically emphasizes the "ethnic labels" of parties. While a party's association with a particular community is undoubtedly significant, more recent work has found that voters also consider the identity of the specific candidate on the ballot when formulating their voting decisions (Jha, 2019).

Traditionally politics in Bihar is rooted in the social structure of the State. In the political space of Bihar, the economic transformation is less recorded, and the control of social structure, especially the rigid caste boundaries in terms of forward &backward the general psyche of individual voters. The terms backward forward have been more commonly used like the Burgess & Proletariat as in Marxist literature. The rigid boundary of caste affiliation has been politically reflected in the voting behavior of electorates. However, it is interestingly recorded that the oppressed and untouchable caste categories are one shadowed in the visible identity formation. Dalit & Jadav categories are less visible in Bihar than UP and the other neighboring State.

The practice of caste identity in Bihar has influenced in different shades.

Firstly, caste itself bears the identity affiliation to the particular group. It is commonly known as a caste-based political party if the Icon or leader of that group belongs to a certain caste, e.g., RJD Lalu Jadav, S.P Akhilesh Jadav, VIP Mukesh Sahani, HAM Jitan Ram Manjhi.

Secondly, the Caste group announces its support to a particular political party or caste leaders support political group. Their preferences may be changed from one election to another.

Thirdly, Caste groups locally termed their party and bargain with the larger political parties.

People of different castes behave differently, depending on their numerical strength, regions of locations, socio-economic background, level of social mobility, and position in the caste system hierarchy (Ali, 2010).

Dalits in the past have been successfully mobilized by various political parties across the Bihar landscape. The Congress has effectively managed a large chunk of Dalits in the pre-1990 era; nevertheless, a sharp decline can be noticed in the proportion of Dalit votes to the Congress. Congress commanded the fullest support from the Dalits in states where the BJP was the only alternative to the party (Sarkar & Sarkar, 2016). During the Congress regime, power remained monopolized by the upper castes, and no serious attempt was made to incorporate the aspirations and demands of the Dalits and backward castes into the governance of the State (Kunnath, 2017).

In states where a dominant regional outfit is present, the Dalit vote was being divided among the Congress or its United Progressive Alliance (UPA) allies and other regional outfits such as HAM, VIP, AIMIM, LJP. Dalits constitute 16.5% of the State's population, and while they are spread all over the State, there are concentrated pockets where Dalit voter preference can affect the electoral outcome (Picherit, 2019). The LJP leader, Ram Vilas Paswan, is seen as the most popular leader amongst the Dalits and a large number of Dalit voters rally behind him. This may not be true for all Dalit sections, but this is undoubtedly true of voters from one section—the Dusadhs. Ram Vilas Paswan himself belongs to this community (Brass, 2011). In some states, political parties mobilized Dalit voters along intra-Dalit caste fault lines. Punjab is a good example where Hindu Dalits voted for the Congress while the Sikh Dalits voted for the Akali Dal-BJP combine. According to Kanshi Ram, poverty and deprivation among Dalits result from social and political powerlessness historically rooted in the Brahminical system and not an economic condition to be dealt with by economic policies (Spary, 2014).

The changing social composition of political representation indicates that the backward castes have come to play a significant role in Bihar politics (Sajjad, 2014). In 2015 State Assembly election in Bihar proves the above statement, how two rival backward class leaders Nitish Kumar and Lalu Yadav joint together to achieve and share political power. Yadav is the political elite among the backward caste.

The margin of win of political parties

The study of the margin of a win has helped determine political parties' close and keen contest in their respective constituencies. A margin is a difference between two amounts, especially the number of votes or points between the winner and the loser in an election or other contest. The margin of victory is used to measure the electoral competitiveness of a political party or candidate strength and the popularity of a particular policy or set of policies indirectly (Rahat et al., 2008). Political parties are the most common institutional devices through which democratic competition is structured. A low win margin strengthens the democratic form of government, whereas a high win margin promotes autocracy.

Party performance: the seats share and degree of success

In the multiparty system, several parties Jointly exercise the governmental power as none of them by Itself is capable of running the government. France, Netherland, Belgium, Finland, Peru, Argentina are illustrations of this system. Unlike the two-party system, which poses a dilemma to the independent voters, the multiparty system gives the people more opportunities to reflect their numerous political opinions.

Political parties are- natural and inevitable concomitants of democratic governance. Democracy, by definition, is a form of government that derives its legitimacy from the authority of the people. But such authority must express itself in an organized form. Otherwise, democracy degenerates into mobocracy. Herein lies the necessity of political institution-building in the form of parties. Every political party is organized based on a common idea that all its members aspire to achieve.

The seat shares of a political party indicate its respective strength in the legislature and determine which party will form the government. The degree of success of a political party is taken as a proportion of seats won to total seats contested. In the Assembly election, 2020, Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP) had the highest success rate, 67.7, compared to other political parties. It indicates that BJP works tremendously at the ground level to build up its strength in every section of the society under the leadership of Narendra Modi and Amit Shah. At the same time, RJD and CPIML performance is good, and the success rate is 52.8 and 63.15, respectively. Mahagathbandhan transforms the political history of Bihar under the leadership of Tejashwi Jadav, and his visionary inclusive development scheme influences all sections of voters, spatially young voters and casting votes for Mahagathbandhan.

Importantly, The RJD alliance with the left group and Congress has produced one important social finding, which indicates the fluid boundaries between caste and class. Traditional supports of RJD comes out from Yadav social group and Muslims among them. These demographically social groups also belong to most of the working class of Bihar. The success ratio of Left parties, specifically CPIML, which has already social bases because of the social movements historically in the certain constituencies of Bihar, has won 12 seats out of provided 19 seats in the recent assembly elections of 2020. The Left Front retained most of its support and increased its support among the OBC and Dalits. Though, the support for the Left Front has declined among Muslims. Working classes across the caste identities fused with the Muslim and Yadav social group were mobilized at a larger scale. CPIML even occupied the second position in many electoral constituencies. However, the electoral success of Congress was undermined because of the configuration of seats and its allocation mainly in the areas where the electoral campaign was wakening because of the lesser local mobilization by the congress workers and less visible electoral mass bases. The place value of Congress was not highly recorded because the mainstream leaders of high command were not considered as local significance.

LJP and JDU, VIP, Ham alliance with the BJP has produced religious beliefs, and that religious composition of households also affects voting behavior. Religious beliefs, finally, may be a source of social and political values and attitudes that in turn influence political behavior. Political parties frequently play an important role in generating relationships between the dimensions of religion and political behavior. Religious belonging affects the likelihood of party support, dividing religious groups in electoral politics.

Around 56% population of Bihar belongs to Other Backward Classes. 16% are Yadav OBC, and the rest, 40%, are considered Non-Yadav (OBC). RJD supremo Lalu Prasad Yadav had a strong, loyal vote bank of the 16% Yadav OBCs of Bihar. At the same time, the Non-Yadav votes support the Bhartiya Janata Party and the Janata Dal (United), who are currently running the Bihar Government. The Non-Yadav OBC votes continue to prefer the BJP-JDU alliance since the 2010 Assembly Elections. In addition to this, the 2015 Assembly Election was special because many young voters rose above the caste politics and voted for Narendra Modi. Due to the high unemployment rate, this group will not remain loyal to the BJP-JDU alliance for the Bihar Assembly Election 2020.

Upper castes account for 15% of the population of the entire Bihar. They include Brahmins, Bhumihars, Rajputs, and Kayasthas. It might be because of the Hindu ideology of BJP, but the upper castes vote for Bharatiya Janata Party. Since 1984, these votes have shifted from Congress to BJP and remain so. The Rashtriya Janata Dal gave 69 of its 144 tickets to OBC candidates and 23 upper castes. Scheduled Caste and Muslim candidates received nearly the same number of tickets (19 &18). The BJP gave 52 tickets to upper caste candidates out of 110, 39 tickets to Other Backward Classes candidates, 15 tickets to Scheduled Caste candidates, one Scheduled Tribes, and no tickets given to Muslims. The Janata Dal (United) gave 23 to upper caste candidates, 59 tickets to OBC candidates, 18 Scheduled Castes, 11 Muslims, one member of the Scheduled Tribes. If we look at the data in absolute numbers instead of percentages, most upper-caste MLAs were elected on a Bhartiya Janata Party ticket 34, followed by the Rashtriya Janata Dal 13, the Janata Dal (United) 10, and Congress 7. Nineteen Muslims have been elected in the 2020 Bihar state assembly election. Eight were elected on a Rashtriya Janata Dal ticket, five from the AIMIM, four from Congress, and one each from the Bahujan Samaj Party and the Communist Party of India (Marxist Leninist) Liberation. Muslims made up less than 10% of all candidates and 8% of the MLAs. Muslims in Bihar represent 16.5% of the total population. Therefore, the distribution of tickets and seats by party shows that both Congress and the BJP predominantly support upper castes' representation. At the same time, the Rashtriya Janata Dal and the Janata Dal (United) mainly favor OBC representation. Upper castes make up nearly half of all BJP MLAs, while mostRashtriya Janata Dal and Janata Dal (United) MLAs belong to the OBCs.

Patterns of voting behaviour

Leader's image, the image of party workers, party organization, party infighting, corruption pro-poor attitude, relations with other political parties, attitude towards women; and relations with citizens/local community and attitudes towards the land acquisition policy all factors combinedly influence the voting behaviors of the Bihar state assembly election.

Our study deals with the spatial and temporal analysis of electoral behavior in the Sate Assembly elections in the political space of Bihar. It covers the elections of 2010, 2015, and 2020. The main focus of this paper is on the identification, description, and analysis of patterns of participation and associated parameters with the help of electoral data, maps, and empirical observations. The first impression of voting behavior in these elections can be depicted as 2010 election is the demarcated line as Pre-BJP phase and Post BJP phase. The degree of success of a political party is a measure to be taken as the proportion of seats won by it to the total number of seats contested.

The Issue: Development vs. Identity Politics from various schemes like the Indira Awas Yojana, Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guaranty Act, Pradhan Mantri Ujjala Yojana, Skill India, Smart city, Old Age pension scheme. How do voters look at these issues in Bihar Election?

Hence, we can easily observe that in the 2010 state Assembly election, BJP won 91 out of 243 seats and vote percentage was 16.5; in the 2015 election, BJP got 53 out of 243, and vote percentage was 25, and in the 2020 election it gained 74 out of 243. The vote percentage is 19.46, so the BJP party performance is outstanding. Slightly seat sharing is declined, but the vote share is increasing, and this result shows that Modi's performance is augmenting in all sections of the society. What happened to electoral politics? How has RJD situated its 1^strank higher than other political parties? The answer lies in the Inclusive development policy, collective imagined, populist, sentiment-based imaginations in favor of RJD and against the JDU. Bhartiya Janata Party has come into defensive mode in a rapid mobilization and very popular tendencies of Narendra Modi leadership (Jain & Be, 2020). A sizeable number of Muslim and Dalit voters also support Modi Government because someone in their family benefited from various schemes like the Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojana, Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act (MGNREGA), National Rural Health Mission, Old Age Pension Scheme, Pradhan Mantri Jan Dhan Yojana (PMJDY), Pradhan Mantri Ujjwala Yojana (Rai, 2019). It is also true that good governance by the ruling government does attract voters from all sections (caste community), as had happened in the past for the BJP.

BJP influences the voters during the election campaign can be classified into three parts: general issues, local importance issues, and communally sensitive issues.

General issues are maintaining law and order, criminalization of politics, stable government, social justice with reservations for the most backward castes and women, crop and cattle insurance, employment for one and a half lakh youth in the next 3 years, etc.

Issues of local importance like civic amenities, development, Mediclaim policies for the poor, free textbooks for girl students up to class VIII, Old age pension schemes, Roads and transport, Drinking Water facility, Free Health facility etc.

Communally sensitive issues

Firstly: Threat from Pakistan leading to greater mobilization of security forces at the borders. Secondly: The campaign got communal wherever there was a likelihood of tactical voting by Muslims against BJP candidates. The BJP's objective was to prevent Hindu votes' division and polarise voters on communal lines.

In the 2010 State Assembly election, JDU owned 115 seats out of 243 seats, and the vote percentage was 22.6, but in the 2020 State Assembly election won 43 seats out of 243, and the vote percentage was 15.39. A strong economy will allow the ruling party to consolidate its support, while a weak one will spread votes among different political parties. It is widely recognized that extreme economic crises can help collapse the party system, and the same thing happened with JDU. Party performance of JDU is declining from 2010 to 2020 because the Nitish Kumar government fails to provide the necessities of life at the time of the pandemic. Region-wise Analysis of the State assembly election from 2010 to 2020 and their political choices. More people believe that there has been an improvement in women's safety during the last 10 years under Nitish Kumar Government. Perceptions on electricity, road, water supply were also positive as more believed that it had improved during his tenure.

The rival parties RJD-Congress CPIM alliance, had poorly lost and projected a decent contest against the BJP and JDU alliance. The victory of RJD in the recent state assembly election is attributed to the solid support extended to her by the minorities and Yadav all over Bihar. RJD is the single largest party in Bihar'slatest state assembly elections under the leadership of Tejashwi Jadav. In the 2010 State Assembly Election, RJD won 22 seats out of 243 seats and vote percentage is 18.8; in 2015, elections won 80 out of 243, and vote percentage is 18.8, and in 2020 election won 75 out of 243 and vote percentage is 23.1, so the RJD party's performance is stagnant due to the traditional support of Dalit, Yadav and Muslim voters. The floating voter is more likely to be affected by economic conditions than voters committed to a particular party for social, caste, religious, and cultural factors as we know that small swings in the vote share of a party can play a significant role in the number of seats won by different parties (along with alliances). Therefore this set of voters plays a pivotal role in electoral 'swings. It is often argued that the rising importance of new young voters in Bihar is weakening traditional political allegiances based on caste or religion or on a nationalistic or class ideology. On average, younger voters are more educated and upwardly mobile and thus tend to vote based on their perception of the governance performance of incumbents and how it has benefited them.

In the 2010 State Assembly election, INC won 4 seats out of 243 seats, and vote percentage was 8.4 in 2015, elections won 27 out of 243, and vote percentage was 6.8, and in 2020 election won 19 out of 243. The vote percentage is 9.48, so the INC party's performance is declining because the Upper Caste, Dalit, and Muslim voters left their support from INC. Congress is a party that draws most of its support from the poor and socially disadvantaged groups. But the Congress faces serious competition for these groups' votes from regional parties that directly appeal to these communities. The BJP has been more successful in consolidating its smaller catchment area, while the Congress has a larger but more fragmented group of potential voters.

The party emerged in the 1970s after the Naxalbari movement but immersed itself in mainstream electoral politics by the 1980s. The party is ideologically opposed to the BJP. In the 2010 State assembly election, CPIML won 0 seats out of 243 seats, and the vote percentage was 1.1, but in the 2020 State assembly election won 12 seats out of 243, and the vote percentage was 3.9. This success came despite propaganda such as 'Naxalites', 'terrorist sympathizers', 'China-funded Maoists,''tukde-tukde gang', among others. The CPI(ML) Liberation has taken on basic issues such as migrant laborers, unemployment, agricultural bills, and this crisis is prevalent among the poorest sections of Dalits under privileged community. In a land of post-Mandal social justice politics, the CPI(ML) Liberation has shifted with the times to talk about land ownership, privatization of government property, and material resource-based issues at the forefront of its anti-caste politics. It did not field a single upper-caste candidate in the state election of Bihar. Left movement plays a crucial role in building up a stronger bulwark against fascist politics. The Opposition builds a grassroots agitation on issues of jobs, education, health, and livelihood and against instances of social and political discrimination and injustice.

However, another feature of Bihar state politics that is reflected in the assembly election of State in 2020 is re-emerging of left-biased political parties CPIM CPIML(L) CPI and others as one of the major forces in the State Assembly election.

There are the following issues and implications in re-emerging of left political parties.

Firstly, politics of greater alliance and cultural unification of class (Caste) in the area of left influence.

Secondly, The long-term historical base of the communist party in certain political area of Bihar.

Thirdly, the Alliance of Jadav Muslim Jat Upper caste workers produces the winning ratio of left seats. On the other hand, the Art of Mass mobilization and grass-root campaign.

Fourthly, the migrant workers, labor, and marginal farmers consolidated themselves in the Lockdown & Corona pandemic apart from the conversion of class into caste identity. They support the CPIML political party and anti-incumbency campaign of the government.

Fifthly, political awareness by the young leaders has articulated their issues into a people's orientation that benefited the left-based political organization.

The Mahagatbandhan did particularly well in reserved seats in the Bihar election. While Bhojpuri has a sizeable Dalit population, it also has a relatively recent history of extreme feudal oppression. Over three decades of anti-feudal assertion led by the CPIML in Bhojpur and southern Bihar counted towards the Mahagathbandhan wins in this region.

The last cluster lies in the East, in Seemanchal, where AIMIM won five seats around Kishanganj. While the AIMIM failed to make a mark beyond the Seemanchal and Koshi regions, it won five seats with nearly 2% of the votes and more in areas where Muslim voters predominate. Traditional loyalties' operated, especially among the rural Muslim population. AIMIM candidates got support in the rural Muslim majority areas of Kishanganj. Its leaders appeal to religious sentiments like the issues of Babri Masjid, NRC/ CAA, Triple Talaq, Article 370.

The failure of the Nitish Kumar government is a possible reason for a rising anti-incumbency sentiment into two categories—rising accountability pressures because of changes in voter characteristics and greater governance failures, as perceived by voters. Concerning local leaders and voters were asked to express the extent of their dissatisfaction on the following dimensions Resolution of household disputes, socio-economic injustice, participation in school education, participation in government centers, participation in irrigation construction and other public workers, contract and rapport with local traders, and the honesty of political workers. Government failures include rising dissatisfaction among voters with local incumbents on corruption and the provision of education health or other local public goods (such as roads and irrigation) or the delivery of private benefits programs such as MGNREGA, Indira Awas Yojana, Drinking water, ration cards, bank loans, agriculture mini kits, pensions.

The 2020 State Assembly elections seem to have marked a new beginning in the collation politics of Bihar. If the last two decades of politics in Bihar were marked by massive social and political mobilization of people belonging to the Other Backward Classes (OBC) in favor of either the Lalu Prasad-led Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) or the Nitish Kumar-led Janata Dal (United) (JDU)—the 2020 elections marked the beginning of a massive consolidation of the upper castes in favor of the Narendra Modi-led Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). The upper caste consolidation behind the BJP was also supported by the mobilization of sections of Dalit and the OBC voters in favor of the BJP and its allies, a result of the BJP's alliance with Ram Vilas Paswan-led Lok Jan Shakti Party (LJP) and Upendra Kushwaha's Rashtriya Lok Samata Party (RLSP). The BJP carefully crafted an alliance with other parties to build a social coalition of voters from different castes that helped the BJP and its allies register a massive victory in Bihar. The Modi message of development Sab ka Sath Sabka Vikas (Development for all the people) impacted people's behavior significantly and led them to cast a vote in favor of BJP.

The Bihar polls in 2020 have turned a bit different. All the political parties are now focusing on development and employment. Hence, the leaders of all the major political parties in Bihar are promising jobs or job opportunities and a holistic ecosystem for the State's overall development. For a change, the political tacticians feel that people would vote for employment and development rather than caste Hindutva agenda and religious sympathies. Indeed, people are now fed up with caste-based politics, which has failed to provide them with basic amenities like primary education, primary healthcare, roads, bridges, electricity, potable water, etc. This phenomenon is evident from the high incidence of anti-incumbency sentiments among people of Bihar, as reflected in their constant rebuttal during the visits of Ministers and legislators in their villages. On several occasions, the Ministers and legislators have returned without entering the villages in their respective constituencies. Social media has several videos showing the disgruntled villagers asking difficult questions to the Ministers and legislators who have invariably failed to keep their promises during the last 5 years. This agitation fully damaged the Nitish government, reflected in the Bihar election.

The electoral map shows how party performance was concentrated in specific subregions. While the BJP won most of the Tirhut, Saran, and Northern Mithalanchal, the Janata Dal (United) concentrated its wins in the Koshi, Ang Pradesh, and Southern Mithalanchal regions. RJD and CPIML won most of the seats in the Bhojpur regions. AIMIM won most of the seats in Kishanganj (Fig. 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19).

Fig. 1

Political Party Seat Share from 2010-2020 In Vidhan Sabha Election

Fig. 2

Political Party Vote Share from 2010-2020 In Vidhan Sabha Election

Fig. 3

Political Party Seat Swing from 2005-2020 In Vidhan Sabha Election

Fig. 4

Political Party Vote Swing from 2005-2020 In Vidhan Sabha Election

Fig. 5

Location Map of the Study Area Developed by Author

Fig. 6

Constituency Wise Political Party Performance in Vidhan Sabha Election 2010

Fig. 7

Constituency Wise Political Party Performance in Vidhan Sabha Election 2015

Fig. 8

Constituency Wise Political Party Performance in Vidhan Sabha Election 2020

Fig. 9

Constituency Wise Pattern of Voting Behaviour in Vidhan Sabha Election 2010- 2020

Fig. 10

Constituency Wise Voter Turnout in Vidhan Sabha Election 2010

Fig. 11

Constituency Wise Voter Turnout in Vidhan Sabha Election 2015

Fig. 12

Constituency Wise Voter Turnout in Vidhan Sabha Election 2020

Fig. 13

Constituency Wise Changing Pattern of Voter Turnout in Vidhan Sabha Election 2010-2020

Fig. 14

Constituency Wise Margin of Win in Vidhan Sabha Election 2010

Fig. 15

Constituency Wise Margin of Win in Vidhan Sabha Election 2015

Fig. 16

Constituency Wise Margin of Win in Vidhan Sabha Election 2020

Fig. 17

Political Party Performance in Reserved Constituency in Vidhan Sabha Election 2010

Fig. 18

Political Party Performance in Reserved Constituency in Vidhan Sabha Election 2015

Fig. 19

Political Party Performance in Reserved Constituency in Vidhan Sabha Election 2020

Above all, religion and ideology played an important role in contemporary Bihar politics. There is a strong ideological division between the Congress-led UPA and the BJP. The Congress-led UPA plan is inclusive, sustainable development for all sections of the society. On the other hand, BJP agenda is religious and sentiment issues, such as the building of the Ram temple at Ayodhya, abolition of Article 370 of the Constitution (a law that grants special autonomous status to Jammu and Kashmir), and implementation of the Uniform Civil Code, NRC, NPR, CAA.

Voter turnout

Voting behavior and its voter turnout are closely linked with people's attitudes towards voting. Turnout is the most common and probably the most important component of an individual's participation in the political process turnout matters at the community and the individual level. Turnout is generally thought to indicate levels of civic engagement, social connectedness, and trust in a democratic society (Cutts et al. l 2020). Low voter turnout is a threat to democracy because democracy depends on citizen participation in elections to select representatives for public office. If citizens did not participate in elections, it would be impossible to constitute a democratic government. Voter turnout is a widely studied phenomenon in comparative politics literature. Why do people vote? Across different types of voters, how is turnout likely to vary? Why does it increase or decrease over time? Will the result accurately reflect the pattern of preferences throughout the electorate? These questions are central to the study of democratic systems. This article explores the trends and determinants of voter turnout in Bihar at the constituency level. It reveals a large variation in turnout across the Bihar states. Early studies (Mitra, 2014) assume that turnout depends on the character of the election itself rather than on the voters. Thus, for example, lower turnout is expected when parties do not communicate their policies to the voters. A high turnout is expected when policies are well presented or where electoral competition is expected to be close. In a recent trend, turnout focuses on the characteristics of the elections, motivation of the individual voter, and parties' efforts to mobilize support for its policies (Nooruddin & Simmons, 2015).

Education develops the civic skills and knowledge that facilitate political engagement. As an individual becomes better educated and better prepared, he is more likely to be politically active (Panda, 2019). But in Bihar, people are more likely to vote if the benefits they receive from the government are greater than their expectations.

Although turnout in most constituencies has been decreased over time, there are also many exceptions to this downward trend. The map shows that average turnout is lower in the Bhojpuri belt and North region than in the other areas (Sano et al., 2017). In particular, turnout tends to be higher in the states located in the South and North East regions (Stockemer, 2017). It can be seen that only the North region has shown a decline in turnout, while other regions have witnessed an upward trend in turnout rates, and that the upward trend is statistically significant for East, North East, Bhojpuri Belt, and South regions.

These empirical results are consistent with the "rational-voter model," where turnout tends to be higher, elections are closely fought, and the literacy rate is nothing her. Further, a larger electorate and a higher proportion of the urban population are associated with lower turnout in the Bihar states. In particular, much attention has been paid to the decline in turnout in the urban constituency, and scholars have debated the reasons and the effects of this decline. Declining turnout tends to be associated with citizens' lack of interest in the democratic process and dilutes the electoral results' legitimacy.

Urban voters registered a lower turnout than their rural counterparts from the 2010 to 2020 state assembly elections. This is not a surprise as there is a history of urban voters bothering less about casting their vote. Interestingly, small towns and villages show greater participation than those in big towns. A commonly shared belief is that lower turnout in the urban constituency results from lower turnout among higher-class voters. The symbolic and actual value of the vote as a weapon of the poor thus removes the socio-economic disparities Bihar's marginal section of people face. Through fewer urban people may have taken part in the election campaign. We can say that overall participation in election-related activities has been increasing because the voter understands the value of the vote and government policy for the betterment of socio-economic transformation. Our data do not show any dramatic trends in participation's sharp rise or fall. The same trends have more or less continued over the last few elections. Age is one of the strongest of these factors, and we've been able to measure it well. There are many reasons why young people are less likely to vote, such as the low level of political interest, the initial barrier of registration to vote, a busy career-oriented life. However, political parties successfully connect to the voters during pandemic time elections. The strengthening of the party system and mobilization of voters by the parties seems to be an important reason for this large increase in turnout in this period. This is consistent that in Bihar, voting is higher among the poor than among the rich, among the less educated than the graduates, in the villages than in the cities (Hauser, 2019). Thus, it might increase turnout in the Indian states by improving literacy rates and motivating the urban population to vote in larger numbers. Political parties and electoral institutions can influence turnout through improved communications, reducing any information gap.

However, another thing is that voter turnout is higher when and where it is relatively easy to vote, and there is no fear of insecurity, non-violence atmosphere, mass level of awareness. Declining turnout tends to be associated with citizens' lack of interest in the democratic process and also dilution of the legitimacy of the electoral results. Furthermore, turnout has been increased over the years, indicating the citizens' engagement in the political process despite widespread poverty and illiteracy. The strengthening of the party system and mobilization of voters by the parties seems to be an important reason for this significant increase in turnout seen from 2010 to 2020 in the Bihar state assembly elections.

Relationship between scheduled caste population and voter turnout

Null Hypothesis (H₀) There is no significant statistical relationship between sex ratio and voter turnout in the 2010 and 2020 state assembly elections.

Hypothesis (H₁)

Sex ratio is positively related to the rate of voter turnout.

The correlation analysis Tables 3 and 4 reveal that Pearson's correlation coefficient between sex ratio and voter turnout is 0.540 in 2010 and 0.526 in 2020 state assembly elections. Since the value of r in the 2010 and 2020 state assembly elections is close to 1.0, there is a strong positive correlation in both state assembly elections. The relationship between sex ratio and voter turnout has positively correlated in the 2010 and 2020 state assembly elections. The sex ratio has always affected the voter turnout in both elections. The table shows that in those constituencies, the sex ratio percentage is high, the rate of political participation (voter turnout) is high, that constituency sex ratio is low, and there is a low rate of political participation. The correlation coefficient between sex ratio and voter turnout has been decreased to 0.540 in 2010 and 0.526 in the 2020 assembly election. The table depicts that the value of p (= 0.000) and (= 0.001) respectively is less than 0.01, so the correlation is significant at a 1 percent significance level. Therefore, the null hypothesis of the study presented no statistical relationship between sex ratio; and voter turnout in both 2010 and 2020 state assembly elections is rejected. So, we can confidently say with 99 percent confidence that there is a positive statistical relationship between the sex ratio and voter turnout in both the 2010 and 2020 state assembly elections. Therefore, the first proposed hypothesis is accepted (Tables 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, and 8).

Table 1 Victory of Political Parties in Bihar state assembly Election 2020

Table 2 Percentage of Caste Groups and their representation on Bihar state assembly election

Table 3 Patterns of Party Performances from 2010 to 2020 in Bihar State Assembly Elections

Table 4 Temporal Pattern of Seat Swing of Political Parties from 2010 to 2020 in Bihar State Assembly Elections

Table 5 Temporal Pattern of Vote Swing of Political Parties from 2010 to 2020 in Bihar State Assembly Elections

Table 6 Correlation between Sex Ratio and Voter Turnout in 2010 State Assembly Election

Table 7 Correlation between Sex Ratio and Voter Turnout in 2020 State Assembly Election

Table 8 Reserved Constituency Voting Behavior from 2010 to 2020 in Bihar State Assembly Election

The proper term for reservation as a part of the Indian Constitution is Representation. A Reserved Constituency is reserved for Scheduled Tribes and Castes in parliamentary and Assembly Elections. The purpose of the reserved constituency is to the upliftment of the weaker section of the society. The parties that could successfully mobilize non-Dalit votes and Dalit votes in reserved constituencies managed to win more easily.

In the 2010 Bihar state assembly election, BJP got 18 seats out of 40 reserved seats but got only ten seats in the 2020 assembly election. The BJP revived its historic promise to build the Ram Mandir at Ayodhya. The BJP claimed to make Bihar the "best state in the country." The other significant promises made by the BJP were better governance, ending corruption, creating unemployment benefits, better employment opportunities, and better health facilities. The BJP promised greater industrialization to reduce the number of people leaving the State to find a job on the economic front. But a promise is not fulfilled by the alliance government of BJP and JDU. Therefore, the agitation of Dalit is reflected in the 2020 Bihar state election.

JDU got 20 seats out of 40 reserved seats in the 2010 Bihar state election, but in 2020 the scenario is changed; thus, JDU got only eight seats. Farmers and Dalit voters have widespread dissatisfaction with the performance of the JDU.

In the 2020 Bihar state assembly election, RJD got 10, INC got 5, HAM got 3, VIP got 1, and CPIM got 3 out of 40 reserved constituencies. In the reserved constituency, the RJD alliance got success in the 2020 Bihar state election. Due to his clean and honest image, there is a rise to new expectations among the Dalits and backward community concerning the new Chief Minister candidate Tejashwi Yadav. Raj Badlo, Samaj Badlo (change the system, change the society), this famous slogan changes the Dalit voters; and cast a vote in favor of RJD.

Left Front's performance in the rural sector, especially Dalit and backward areas in the spheres of land reforms and decentralization of power through Panchayat Raj institutions, has helped them keep their Dalit vote bank more or less intact. Thus, the Left Front maintained its stronghold over the rural areas and could retain its popularity among the Scheduled Castes and Scheduled Tribes people. It also impresses the industrial workers, migrates laborers, and the middle class to cast votes for the left. These factors collectively support the left to succeed in the 2020 Bihar state assembly elections.

CPV- Consistent pattern of voting means the repeated fielding of one candidate for the same political party in elections.

ICPV- Inconsistent pattern of voting means fielding of one candidate for a particular party once or twice.

ICPV and IICPV-Initially consistent and Initially inconsistent pattern of voting reflects the constituent pattern of voting for a definite period of time and in the Inconsistent pattern of voting for an indefinite period.

Discussion and conclusion

The voting behavior of the population of Bihar can be observed even with the historical dimension. Indian freedom movement starts from Bihar under the leadership of Mahatma Gandhi. So, politically Bihar plays an active role in Indian politics. In recent times, an important feature of Bihar politics has been the rise of identity-based political parties representing regional, linguistic, religious, and caste identities. The BJP-led NDA and the outgoing Congress-led UPA have emerged as the two main coalitions in the last two decades. Our study has attempted to identify the factors underlying the persistent and destructive political instability that Bihar has experienced from 2010 to 2020. It shows that identity-based mobilization is a more decisive factor in Bihar politics. The decline of parties, poor governance, and a growing financial crisis with negative economic growth, Lockdown, pandemic are collectively responsible for the political instability that Bihar has experienced. The most recent changes are fragmentation, regionalization, or federalization of the party system and a decline in the ideological polarization of political parties. This is happening because the present election is not being held in ideal conditions due to the enormous amount of money required to be spent and the immense muscle power needed for winning the elections. The major defects which come in the path of the electoral system in Bihar are money power, muscle power, criminalization of politics, poll violence, booth capturing, communalism, casteism.

People of different castes behave differently depending on their numerical strength, region of locations, socio-economic background, level of social mobility, and position in the caste system hierarchy (Bandyopadhyay, 2012). In general, caste-based political behavior is more conspicuous at the local level. Caste considerations dominate people's lives, from birth to death. The understanding of the caste system and how it controls and regulates social, economic, political, and religious life in Bihar. Any political party's tilt towards a particular section of society is reflected in its election manifesto and policies when it forms the government, as it tries to appease its vote bank alone. The marginalized sections of society are not considered as equal citizens of Bihar but only a vote bank of a particular political party.

The Modi-centric populist nature of the campaign was evident from the character of its mass communication and collective emancipation of Narendra Modi from the party. He focused on tested tactics and themes, including caste politics, anti-corruption, nationalist overtones where and when they were relevant (Kinnvall, 2019). Charisma is a rather elusive concept that Max Weber used to define a form of political legitimacy that emerged from the leader's personal qualities (Sen, 2016). Besides his organizational skills (inherited from his past role as a Pracharak), Modi is a gifted orator who knows how to galvanize large crowds by resorting to sarcastic formulas and plays on words. It found expression in slogans such as 'Har har Modi', 'Ghar, Ghar Modi' or 'Abki bar, Modi Sarkar!'. The whole campaign of the BJP concentrated on the qualities of its leader, irrespective of the party's program. Modi gave some Hindutva flavor to his campaign. First, Narendra Modi continued to attack the Congress as a party pampering to Muslims. Modi's populist campaign ran more on security issues than on welfare schemes called 'Nation First, national security, zero-tolerance approach to terrorism, the welfare of soldiers, combating infiltration, coastal safety, implementing the Citizenship (Amendment) Bill, combating left-wing extremism, Ram Mandir, Jammu & Kashmir – Article 370. Together these contributed toward strengthening the majoritarian sentiments in the country. Therefore, it is helpful to engage with the issue of Muslim political representation set against the rising tide of majoritarianism. The success of the BJP and ideology lie in effectively weaving a political narrative that has pitched a monolith minority community against a united majority, thereby rendering Muslim votes dispensable.

The pasmanda Muslims have played a significant role in facilitating the crowning of Nitish Kumar as chief minister in 2005 and 2015. Expectations were raised that Nitish Kumar's regime, in addition to restoring the rule of law, would not compromise the hard-earned izzat (respect) of the margin- aliased and the oppressed. But unfortunately, by attaching preference for landowners and the powerful over the landless and the weak.

Lalu Prasad Yadav, the charismatic leader of one of the more numerous OBC groups, rode what came to be called the "social justice" wave. He promised to inaugurate "backward raj," or rule by OBC and Dalit communities (Witsoe, 2016). The alliance of the RJD with Congress helped Lalu Prasad in regaining Muslim support. The victory and defeat of parties are largely determined by social alliances and coalitions with other political parties. Bihar continues to remain a state with deep caste-based division. It is difficult to ignore the importance of caste coalitions as the basis of political alliances in Bihar Politics. It has remained difficult for any political party to think of a successful political mobilization only based on good work done in power or by promising development. RJD leader Tejeshwi Yadav criticized Nitish Government for its various failures like increased unemployment, lower economic growth, crime, distress to farmers and farm laborers leading to several suicides, weak security due to low expenditure damaged social harmony. All these factors collectively support RJD to get success in the 2020 Bihar state assembly elections.

The Congress promised to promote social cohesion and harmony to ensure to each family had a viable livelihood, to improve the income and welfare of farmers and laborers in all villages, to unleash the energies of entrepreneurs and the middle class, to empower women, and to provide equal opportunity to all the backward classes and religious and linguistic minorities.

The entire politics of the scheduled castes and the scheduled tribes revolves around the issue of reservation. The fact is that reservation has not been solved and cannot solve the problems of backwardness and unemployment of the members of these communities. It is the device of the ruling class to produce a small elite group and keep the people backward. The ruling class and the minority elite group now have a vested interest in perpetuating the community's backwardness. Even the left parties ignore that the reservations create a tendency among the educated and the activists to refuse sacrifice for any social cause. So long as reservations continue, there is no hope for any revolutionary polities in the backward communities.

Thus, caste, class, and community play different kinds of roles in politics. In some situations, expression of caste and community differences in politics give many disadvantaged communities the space to demand their share of power, as described in this article how backward class people of Bihar came into power. In this sense, caste and community politics have helped people from Muslim, Dalits, and OBC castes gain better decision-making access. Caste, class, and community divisions lead to tensions, conflict, and even violence in some cases.

As identity politics in Bihar has evolved over the decades, these jati-level identities have become more prominent in everyday political discourse. The focus on the caste identity of the candidate is important to highlight because it updates the traditional view of identity politics, which typically emphasizes the "ethnic labels" of parties. While a party's association with a particular community is certainly important, more recent work has found that voters also consider the ethnicity of the specific candidate on the ballot when formulating their voting decisions.

Caste consciousness is articulated as the political consciousness of groups staking claims to power and new places in the changed opportunity structure.

In practice, in the Parliamentary democratic system, the people's political behavior is also influenced by caste considerations. Caste impacts the country's politics and affects the country's socio-economic system. Today the problem of upper caste and backward caste has influenced the politics of the entire country.

Bihar is well known as a socially and economically backward region of India, and the interplay of caste and politics is also well known. In the present work, an attempt has been made to find the actual influence of caste on state politics. The phenomenon has been examined both in terms of historical development and the different levels of the political process in Bihar. The impact of caste on politics has progressively been increasing. If the present is any indication of the future, it is doubtful that the effects will be reduced in the future. On the other hand, a deliberate effort to politicize caste, tribe, and religious communities to legitimize their claim to an independent and separate identity.

The first reason for the NDA victory is the alliance of parties that worked together to mobilize women, advanced castes, a few Other Backward Classes, and Mahadalits, which is the initial cause for the NDA's success. Mr. Kumar's base remained the Pachpaniya (a group of around 55 Extremely Backward Classes). True, there were votes in favor of the Mahagathbandhan in these areas, but not at a level that would have resulted in the NDA's removal from power. Most of these social categories' voters are called chuppa (silent) voters, whose opinions are difficult to document by pollsters and political analysts.

The second explanation might be that the election was still split along caste lines, despite Mr. Yadav's economic program. In comparison to the Mahagathbandhan, the NDA was able to effectively build a bigger rainbow alliance of castes. The young, many of whom were motivated by the prospect of a job, also appeared to vote along caste lines, which favored the NDA. Mr. Kumar lost votes and seats as a result of issues such as the pandemic's mishandling and the immigration crisis, but it appears that these emotions did not translate into votes for the Opposition as expected, and the tsunami of change failed to materialize.

The third point is that Congress failed to sway people from the lower castes. Muslim votes were also split to some extent, particularly in Seemanchal, and shifted to Asaduddin Owaisi's All India Majlis-E-Ittehadul Muslimeen. As a result, Congress only received 19 members.

Four, there has been a strong rebirth of left-wing politics. Left-wing parties received 18 seats, one less than Congress. In a few regions of Bihar, the Left parties have concentrated their power. They have also grown a strong following among the impoverished, underprivileged, and Dalit populations. Because of the lack of towering Dalit leaders such as Jagjivan Ram and Ram Vilas Paswan, these parties have greater room and possibilities to organize Dalits in their favor. This election also demonstrated that parties with devoted cadres, whether ideological or caste-based, do well and may prosper in the future. The BJP, RJD, and Left parties will be at the center of Bihar's politics. The findings suggest that democratic politics will grow more difficult and competitive in the near future. In Bihar politics, caste is more significant than Hindutva, Nationalism, or unemployment. Candidates and their final destiny at the polls are heavily influenced by caste dynamics. In 2015 State Assembly election in Bihar proves the above statement, how two rival backward class leaders—Nitish Kumar and Lalu Yadav—joint together to achieve and share political power. Yadav is the political elite among the backward caste.

The results of the recently concluded Bihar election that was considerably influenced by the silent voters. The position of women in politics has always been miserable. Women voters' turnout has been increasing in elections after elections. Women's political participation has also grown considerably in various political parties. In short, women's participation as political actors has improved, but their grip over power structure, at least at the party level, has not been impressive. The rise in the number of women contestants in assembly elections indicates women's increased political participation. 2020 assembly election: the total turnout of female voters has been 59.7% compared to 54.6% of male voters. This figure, however, is part of a trend that has been visible in Bihar for more than a decade now, where the female voter turnout has been high compared to men. In contrast to the earlier trends, like the 1967 election, the female turnout was 41% instead of the male voter turnout of 61% (Bagchi, 2018). This trend has emerged as an outcome of the developmental policies and programs undertaken by the government led by Nitish Kumar since 2005, which has ensured women's participation and decision-making at the village and panchayat levels.

The Jeevika program, which is part of the Bihar Livelihood Project, the cycle scheme, and the 50% reservation for women in Panchayat elections are all significant instances of this. On the ground, the JDU and BJP have numerous female members in local councils, ten million ASHA workers, and more than 70,000 Anganwadi (child care) workers across the state. These actions have contributed to the JDU and BJP gaining a strong support base among female voters in the state. Thanks to the BJP's flagship initiatives like Ujjwala, Swacch Bharat, and PM Awas Yojana, which have given women economic ownership rights to assets like property and utilities like gas cylinders, women have been voting for the party in Bihar states. Apart from financial inclusion initiatives like Beti Bachao, PM Jan Dhan, and Sukanya Samridhi Yojana, the government has fought for regulations like six-month maternity leave and harsher penalties for raping children, all of which are now being targeted. To conclude, despite the increasing women's participation in politics, their influence over the male-dominant power structure at the legislature and party organization levels has been far behind their numerical and participatory strength. It is high time to pay attention to this aspect if women have to improve their status in society and other walks of life.

The sex ratio has always affected the voter turnout in both elections. The table shows that in those constituencies, the sex ratio percentage is high, the rate of political participation (voter turnout) is high, that constituency sex ratio is low, and there is a low rate of political participation.

The Bihar political system has witnessed epochal changes in the last two decades. It has successfully transformed from a single-party dominated political system to a more diverse and representative coalition system. These changes have allowed the development of an alternative space in Bihar politics. This alternative space, popularly defined as non-Congress and non-BJP, is called the Third Front or the Third Force. Development was the issue on which people voted, and identity-based voting was either less significant or missing during these elections. People in Bihar, it seems, have voted for stability and development as against adventurism and anarchy. They have preferred peace and have rejected the slogan of change for change's sake without any definite and alternative program or scheme of development.

The post-truth dimension of the society reflects the real politics of Bihar. At the assembly election of 2020, the binary evolved at religious line seems that caste identity will lose its force in determining the election. The alliance among political parties has provided the tactical calculation based on caste appeasement. The caste identity is inherently utilized for the political alliance; the assembly seats won by different parties, and the electoral margin of winners, which indicates that identity politics is still relevant in the Bihar election.

However, the strength of Left ideology political parties and their performance has produced another dimension that provoked the thinking over rejuvenating class identity and increasing influence of left organizations. Religion-centric mobilization is rising in India, and in this regard, Bihar is not exceptional, which has also observed the instinct of communal religious mobilization in the assembly elections inherently. The visible voters' responses provide the complexities in terms of determinants affecting the whole voters across states. Still, the analogy can be drawn with the voter's behavior at the spatial level.