1 Introduction

The significant surge in demand for fossil fuels resulting from human activities since the Industrial Revolution has led to a continuous rise in greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere. This has triggered global climate change, predominantly characterized by climate warming (Abdoussalami et al., 2023). The multiple negative impacts and extreme events caused by climate change have attracted widespread global attention, including governments, research institutions, and the public. In response, the United Nations has convened 27 Conferences of the Parties (COPs) to address climate change and set the goal of limiting the increase in global average temperature to less than 2 °C from the pre-industrial period and striving to limit it to less than 1.5 °C at the 2015 Paris Agreement. This has also been extensively studied in the academic community.

Climate change has far-reaching impacts on natural, economic, and social systems, propagating through interdependencies among these systems and networks (Daniel et al., 2020). According to the IPCC 6th Synthesis Report on Climate Change, the adverse effects of climate change and associated risks are spreading across regions and sectors in cascading fashion. Such interactions continue to cascade, posing serious threats to natural ecosystems and human social systems (IPCC, 2023).

For instance, climate change and extreme weather events adversely affect crop yields, resulting in direct economic losses. These impacts cascade into non-food production sectors, contributing to social unrest, such as unemployment and lower incomes, and health problems along the supply chain (Malik et al., 2022). Climate change has a dual impact on public health, affecting food security, including nutritional availability and diet quality, while also increasing the risks of disease and premature death due to factors like air pollution and extreme heat (Ingole et al., 2022; Khraishah et al., 2022; Nduka et al., 2022).

This cascading effects of climate change has caused serious damage to natural ecosystems and socio-economic systems, posing great challenges to the sustainability of economic, social, and environmental development (Ganley et al., 2022; Hammerschlag et al., 2022; He et al., 2022). In this context, it becomes necessary to re-examine the future development path and explore how government agencies can formulate appropriate climate policies that ensure economic growth while achieving sustainable environmental and economic development. Therefore, there is a critical need to systematically review the existing literature, elucidate current research progress and key issues related to the cascading effects of climate change, and chart the course for future research directions and mitigation strategies.

The concept of ‘cascade’ first emerged in the field of resilience research (Walker et al., 2004), initially focusing on cascading risks and cascading catastrophic events. In this context, a cascade refers to a series of crisis or failure events triggered within a system by an initial incident (Galaz et al., 2011). These cascades can result in economic, social, or environmental harm to the system (Pescaroli & Alexander, 2015), and, in some instances, lead to the disruption of essential system services (Luisa et al., 2011). Subsequently, numerous scholars began to investigate the adverse effects of cascading events on the structural and functional aspects of a system. Similar to concepts like the domino effect and the butterfly effect, the notion of cascades underscores the interconnectedness and far-reaching consequences of such events (Fred, 2007; Galaz et al., 2011; Luisa et al., 2011). With the escalating impacts of climate change, the IPCC has heightened its focus on cascading effects. It posits that climate-related events set off a cascade of secondary events in both natural and human systems, leading to physical, natural, social, or economic disruptions and resulting in consequences far more substantial than the initial trigger (IPCC, 2023). Cascading effects are intricate and multifaceted, evolving over time, with severity often tied to the system’s vulnerability rather than the initial event’s severity (Pescaroli et al., 2018).

The cascading effects of climate change often manifest as negative cascading risks, primarily due to the incompatibility of current natural and socioeconomic systems with the challenges posed by climate change. However, negative cascading risks can be transformed into positive cascading benefits through policy actions and adjustments to system structure and function. Current research on cascading benefits has focused on co-benefits. Co-benefits of climate change refer to the positive impacts that policies or measures targeting one objective can have on another, thereby enhancing overall societal or environmental benefits during the process of mitigating climate risks (IPCC, 2023). It’s evident that cascading risks and cascading benefits often coexist during efforts to address climate change. Therefore, in this study, the term ‘cascading effects’ encompasses both the positive and negative impacts of climate change and its responses.

However, current climate change reviews predominantly concentrates on describing the impacts of climate change on specific research areas or regions. There is a noticeable dearth of research focusing on climate change cascading effects, and even fewer systematic analyses of the historical knowledge trends in this regard (Lawrence et al., 2020). Bibliometric analyses offer an empirical complement to traditional qualitative literature reviews, systematically delineating the evolving trends in a research field. Remarkably, despite the widespread use of bibliometric methods, there is no known study that has employed Citespace for analyzing the cascading effects of climate change. To provide a comprehensive and objective overview of research on climate change cascading effects, this study employs Citespace, a visualization software, to map the knowledge of climate change cascade effects research. It delineates the research history, focal points, developmental trends, and cooperation networks within the field, bridging the knowledge gap in this area. These findings lay a robust foundation for climate cascade research, policy formulation, and contribute to sustainable economic, social, and environmental development.

2 Data collection and methods

2.1 Data collection

The data utilized in this study were sourced from the Web of Science (WOS) core database, renowned as a globally authoritative platform for scientific literature. This database receives weekly updates from over 9,000 academic journals, ensuring the representativeness, authority, and timeliness of its literature sources (Jiang & Fu, 2008). To optimize the quality, quantity and coverage of our data, we specifically accessed the Science Citation Index Extension (SCI-E) and Social Science Citation Index (SSCI) databases within the WOS core database. Our search employed the following criteria: (TS = (“Climate change” AND “Cascading”)) OR (TS = (“Climate change” AND “Co-benefits”)), with a search cutoff date of December 31, 2022. To enhance the precision of our analysis results, we refined our search by setting the literature types to ‘article’ and ‘review’, consequently excluding literature unrelated to the research topic. Subsequently, we compiled a dataset of 2,093 articles encompassing essential information such as author details, article titles, source publications, abstracts, keywords, and references. This dataset spanned the years from 1994 to 2022.

2.2 Methods

In this paper, we utilize CiteSpace, a literature visualization and analysis software developed by Professor Chaomei Chen. CiteSpace stands out as one of the most influential bibliometric analysis tools. It has the capability to generate various types of visual knowledge maps by analyzing data related to topics, keywords, authors, institutions, and cited literature. This functionality equips researchers with valuable insights into the knowledge structure and trends within a given scientific field (Chen, 2006).

A cooperation network diagram is a valuable tool for analyzing the collaborative relationships between countries, regions, or institutions within a specific research field. In this type of diagram, each node represents either a country or an institution. When two countries, regions, or institutions have a cooperative relationship, a connecting line is drawn between them, forming a network that illustrates these cooperative connections.The size of each node corresponds to the volume of articles issued by the respective country, region, or institution. Additionally, the circles of nodes, arranged from the inside to the outside, reflect the volume of articles published in different years. The darkness of the circle indicates the age of the publications, with darker circles representing older publications. Moreover, the lines connecting these nodes differ in thickness and color, conveying important information about the cooperation. Thicker lines signify a higher frequency of cooperation, indicating stronger partnerships. The color of the lines reflects the timing of when cooperation was established, with darker colors suggesting earlier collaborations. In essence, a cooperation network diagram provides a visual representation of the primary research entities and their cooperative ties in a particular research field. It serves as a valuable reference for researchers interested in collaborative opportunities within their area of study.

The natural breakpoint hierarchy is a method of grouping based on inherent data characteristics. It divides elements into individual classes and establishes class boundaries at points where there are significant differences in values (Sun & Mao, 2021). Based on the literature of different years, the study of climate change cascading effects can be categorized into three phases using the natural breakpoint hierarchy, which are slow growth phase (1994–2006), stable growth phase (2007–2017) and rapid growth phase (2018–2022).

3 Bibliometric analysis of climate change cascading effects

3.1 Analysis of literature characteristics

3.1.1 Quantitative characteristics of the literature

The number of publications and their annual changes generally reflect the importance level and research interest in a particular research topic. Figure 1 illustrates the publication trends between 1994 and 2022. Overall, the number of publications related to climate change cascading effects has been steadily increasing, but it exhibits distinct phases of growth.

Fig. 1
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The number of publications from 1994 to 2022

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(1) The slow growth phase (1994–2006) with limited knowledge about cascading effects. The number of publications in this phase grew slowly, averaging about 10 articles annually, accounting for only 2.20% of the total. Most studies during this phase focused on quantifying and predicting the direct effects of climate change on individual species or specific natural ecosystems (Canals et al., 2006; Lensing & Wise, 2006; Whitlock & Bartlein, 1997). However, the interactions and cascading effects within natural systems remained poorly understood (Balmford & Bond, 2005; Wilmers et al., 2006). Some studies began to forecast different emission scenarios and pathways, recognizing the significance of international cooperation for greenhouse gas mitigation (Hayhoe et al., 2004; Vuuren et al., 2006).

(2) The stable growth phase (2007–2017), with a focus on natural ecosystems. The release of the fourth IPCC report in 2007 gradually solidified climate change as a global consensus. Consequently, the number and quality of related articles increased significantly. During this phase, research began to concentrate on the cascading effects of climate change in ecosystems and their underlying mechanisms. Quantitative methods such as models were used to assess their impacts in specific ecosystems (Lamarque et al., 2014; Nicol et al., 2013). For natural ecosystems, climate change yielded severe impacts, including forest degradation, biodiversity loss, and glacier area reduction (Brando et al., 2014; Sahasrabudhe & Motter, 2011; Sheridan & Bickford, 2011). These impacts propagated through interconnected food webs and species interactions, creating cascading effects (Auer & Martin, 2013; Kroeker et al., 2013; Piovia-Scott et al., 2011; Stevnbak et al., 2012). Simultaneously, there was a growing emphasis on exploring the co-benefits of climate change mitigation actions. For example, assessments of the co-benefits of mitigation actions on air quality and human health were conducted using the GAINS model (West et al., 2013; Liu et al., 2013; Thompson et al., 2014). Despite the clear direction of climate policy, the specific design and implementation of policies remained challenging (Bryan et al., 2016; Haines et al., 2007). Evaluating the co-benefits concerning biodiversity, human development, poverty reduction, and equity along with their global variations, aimed to enhance the prospects of policy implementation (Bain et al., 2016; Dora et al., 2015).

(3) The rapid growth phase (2018–2022) has witnessed a surge in global collaborative research, with a total of 1,220 articles published during this five-year period, accounting for 58.29% of the total number of publications in this research area. This phase of research has demonstrated a notable diversification of topics, encompassing various aspects of the cascading impacts of climate change. Researchers in this phase have explored a range of topics, including the cascading effects of climate change on food security, the negative consequences of climate action on environmental justice, and the negative impacts on local ecosystems (Gallagher & Holloway, 2022; Luderer et al., 2019; Mirzabaev et al., 2023; Thaker et al., 2018). Additionally, research efforts have evolved to incorporate multiple frameworks and integrated models. These models allow for a comprehensive examination of the cascading effects of climate change on socioeconomics, drawing connections between the impacts on resources, industries, employment, and public health (Markandya et al., 2018; Monier et al., 2018; Pescaroli et al., 2018). Moreover, researchers have ventured into the visualization of interlinkages among climate change risks (Cradock-Henry et al., 2020; Yokohata et al., 2019). In summary, this phase has placed a significant focus on understanding the cascading effects of climate change on the coupled human-earth relationship systems. It has fostered global cross-regional collaborative research, enhancing our comprehension of the multifaceted challenges posed by climate change on both natural and human systems.

3.1.2 Discipline distribution characteristics

The disciplinary categories assigned to the 2,093 articles provide valuable insights into the research’s focus, collaborations, and emerging trends across different fields. These categories shed light on the theoretical underpinnings and practical implications of the research. The analysis encompasses a total of 115 disciplinary categories within the Web of Science (WOS) database. The top 10 disciplinary categories are presented in Table 1. Notably, the bulk of relevant research is concentrated in the fields of environment and ecology, with additional involvement in disciplines such as atmosphere, geography, energy, engineering, and public health. Examining the temporal evolution of publication numbers within these categories offers further insights. From 1994 to 2017, there was a significant increase in publications within the categories of environmental studies, green sustainable science and technology, and energy fuels. This trend reflects a shifting research priority towards strategies for addressing climate change and the associated co-benefits for the economy and public health. However, after 2018, the growth rate of publications in fields like ecological restoration and biodiversity conservation notably decelerated. This suggests a gradual shift in research focus towards exploring the interactions between climate change and socio-economic aspects. Additionally, the sustained growth in the number of publications categorized under public environmental occupational health highlights the enduring attention given to the research on the impact of climate change on human health. Furthermore, research related to climate change cascading effects is increasingly interdisciplinary and oriented toward integration. It is evident that the study of climate change now relies heavily on multidisciplinary approaches, cross-cutting theories, and integrated models. This interdisciplinary nature reflects a significant trend in climate change research, promoting a holistic understanding of its effects and potential solutions.

Table 1 The article outputs of the top 10 subject categories
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3.1.3 Journal distribution characteristics

The analysis reveals that 2093 articles were published in 572 different journals. Table 2 summarizes the top 10 journals that published the highest number of articles in this field. Notably, Environmental Research Letters, Global Change Biology, and Sustainability emerge as the leading journals in terms of the number of articles published, with 72, 70, and 62 articles, respectively. In terms of impact factor, the top 10 journals generally boast high 5-year impact factors, averaging of 8.411. This suggests that the research published in these journals is highly influential and contributes significantly to the field. In regards to journal categories, it’s interesting to note that all of the top 10 journals fall under the category of environmental science and ecology, with the exception of PNAS, which is a comprehensive journal. This observation underscores the significance of climate change research in the realm of environmental science and ecology. For example, Environmental Research Letters tends to focus on research concerning the co-benefits of climate change on the environment, economy, and health. Meanwhile, Global Change Biology emphasizes research on the cascading effects of climate change in various ecosystems, including polar, alpine, forest, and marine ecosystems.

Table 2 The article outputs of the top 10 journals
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3.2 Analysis of collaboration network

3.2.1 Country collaboration network

The collaboration network in this research field encompasses contributions from 121 countries and regions globally. Figure 2 illustrates the collaboration network among the top 20 countries or regions with the highest number of publications in this domain. In terms of publication volume, the United States leads the way, accounting for 38.99% of the total, and is among the pioneers in this research area. England (18.35%), China (14.43%), Germany (11.71%) and Australia (10.51%) were next in line. Notably, the countries with a substantial body of research are predominantly developed nations, except for China. This indicates that cascading effect research primarily emanates from developed countries, emphasizing the need for developing countries to enhance their attention and research investment in this field. In terms of centrality, Australia takes the lead with a score of 0.21, signifying its robust international cooperation and significant influence in the research field. Following Australia are France (0.16), Canada (0.15), and Denmark (0.10). This suggests that the research on climate change cascading effects has forged a collaboration network with developed countries in Europe and America at its core. Regarding regional distribution, countries engaged in relevant research predominantly cluster in Europe, North America, East Asia, and Australia. The cooperative research efforts are particularly strong among developed countries such as Europe and America. In recent years, Europe and the United States have assumed leadership roles in climate change research and the formulation of corresponding response and adaptation policies. Consequently, developing countries, led by China, should intensify their research endeavors related to climate change cascading effects to provide decision support for climate change adaptation and mitigation initiatives.

Fig. 2
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Collaboration network of top 20 countries or regions

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3.2.2 Institution collaboration network

Figure 3 illustrates the collaboration network among the top 20 institutions with the highest number of publications in this domain. In terms of the number of publications, the Chinese Academy of Sciences leads with 71 publications. Tsinghua University and the University of Washington follow closely, both with 45 publications. The subsequent institutions have publication numbers that are quite similar. These institutions are at the forefront of climate change cascading effects research. However, despite their high publication numbers, their centrality is generally low. Only two institutions achieve a centrality of 0.1, indicating that there is room for enhanced international cooperation among research institutions. The University of Copenhagen, with a centrality of 0.11, stands out as the institution with the highest centrality. Despite having only 34 publications, it collaborates with over 170 institutions internationally, demonstrating its active engagement in global cooperation. Notably, institutions involved in research on climate change cascading effects primarily consist of universities, followed by research institutes and government agencies. This reflects the multidisciplinary nature of the research and its comprehensive scope. Collaborations between institutions often exhibit geographic tendencies. For example, institutions on the west coast of the United States, such as the US National Forest Service, the University of Washington, the University of California, and Oregon State University, demonstrate close cooperation. Similarly, institutions in the UK, including Imperial College London, Oxford University, Cambridge University, and University College London, engage in collaboration. However, cross-regional cooperation between different institutions remains relatively weak.

Fig. 3
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Collaboration network of top 20 institutions

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4 Analysis of research hotspots on climate change cascading effects

4.1 Keywords analysis

Keyword clustering can bring several keywords together to form a research topic areale. Keyword clustering analysis (Fig. 4) reveals three primary research areas in the current study of climate change cascading effects: cascading effects of climate change on ecosystems, cascading effects of climate change on social-ecological systems, and climate change adaptation and mitigation measures, including their co-benefits.

Fig. 4
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Clusters of research on cascading effects of climate change based on the keywords

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(1) Cascading effects of climate change on natural ecosystems.

Relevant keywords include Global Warming, Body Size, Phenology, Trophic Cascade, Eutrophication, Hydroclimate, and Precipitation. Ecosystems are subject to regulation through bottom-up, top-down, or direct physical processes, which are pivotal for resource management and conservation (Lindegren et al., 2018). However, climate change disrupts these regulatory mechanisms, impacting ecosystems across a wide spectrum, from plant and animal growth to the regulation of food webs and interspecific relationships. These impacts are intricate and multifaceted, occurring at various temporal and spatial scales.

Within ecosystems, climate change can alter the growth, development, distribution and ecological niche of species due to shifts in temperature, precipitation, and other phenological conditions. These changes, in turn, affect the structure and stability of food chains, food webs, and biodiversity through various species interactions (Hansen et al., 2020; Lindmark et al., 2022; Pascual et al., 2022; Sentis et al., 2015; Wieder et al., 2022). Addressing such diverse impacts necessitates a range of research methods. For understanding the climate change impacts on individual or multiple associated species, researchers have primarily employed simulation experiments involving controlled temperature and precipitation conditions in laboratory settings (Chen et al., 2023; Devkota et al., 2023). In the case of simulating interspecies interactions, food web models have been employed (Lindmark et al., 2022).

The extent of climate change impacts on different ecosystems varies, largely influenced by the system’s vulnerability. Marine ecosystems, in particular, tend to be highly sensitive to climate change. Research in marine ecosystems has predominantly focused on the effects of climate change on individual species or specific regional marine ecosystems, such as coral reefs and coastal areas, as well as the interactions among species within the context of climate change cascading effects (Ganley et al., 2022; Hammerschlag et al., 2022; Ullah et al., 2021).

This focus on marine ecosystems can be attributed to the significant direct impact of seawater warming and acidification on both top and bottom trophic levels, while intermediate trophic groups are typically more indirectly affected. Consequently, most studies have examined individual species, often focused on top predators or phytoplankton, while interaction studies tend to center on intermediate trophic groups (Duncan et al., 2022; Ganley et al., 2022; Hammerschlag et al., 2022; He et al., 2020; Murphy et al., 2020). Moreover, the cascading effects of climate change on marine ecosystems can extend to impact fishery economies, posing threats to social-ecological systems (Brandl et al., 2020).

Conversely, in the case of terrestrial ecosystems, studies have focused on polar, alpine, and forest ecosystems (Chen et al., 2023; Durney et al., 2022; Miner et al., 2021). For example, climate change can affect plant flowering and seed dispersal by altering factors like vegetation type, topographic conditions, and canopy area due to temperature and precipitation variations. These changes can also interact with phenomena like fires, leading to deforestation and subsequent economic losses (Bost et al., 2019; Kemter et al., 2021; Meigs et al., 2022; Pedroso et al., 2021).

(2) Cascading effects of climate change on social-ecological systems.

Relevant keywords encompass Mortality, Water Use, Land Cover, Food Security, and more. Research on the socioeconomic cascading effects of climate change has primarily centered on economic losses, public health risks, and climate justice and inequality. Regarding economic losses, climate change and extreme weather events adversely impact crop yields, causing direct economic losses that extend to other non-food production sectors, triggering issues such as social unrest (e.g., unemployment, reduced income) and health problems throughout the supply chain (Ambavaram et al., 2014; Malik et al., 2022). The propagation of these effects across sectors and regions predominantly relies on industry chains and trade networks (Anderson et al., 2019; Kuhla et al., 2021; Simpson et al., 2021).

The impact of climate change on public health has garnered sustained attention. On one hand, climate change impacts public health via food security. On the other hand, air pollution and extreme heat associated with climate change heighten the risk of diseases and premature death (Ingole et al., 2022; Khraishah et al., 2022; Nduka et al., 2022). Climate change presents a significant challenge to the global health achievements of the past decades and is expected to have a dominant influence in the latter half of this century (Whitmee et al., 2015). Consequently, researchers have emphasized the assessment of cascading effects of climate change on human health, particularly via pathways such as air pollution, infectious diseases, and food security (Abel et al., 2018; Patz et al., 2014; Rosenstock et al., 2019).

Research on climate justice and inequality has predominantly explored inequalities between countries, employing two primary approaches. Firstly, natural disasters, such as rising temperatures and extreme weather events, disproportionately impact developing countries compared to developed ones. Secondly, the costs associated with climate change adaptation and mitigation measures can significantly impede economic development in developing countries, further widening the gap between developing and developed nations (Cappelli et al., 2021; Smiley et al., 2022; Sun et al., 2021). Within countries or regions, climate change also varies in its impact on different income groups. For example, it disproportionately affects urban low-income populations, exacerbating income disparities (He et al., 2022).

(3) Climate change adaptation and mitigation actions and their co-benefits.

Corresponding keywords cover Conservation, REDD, Carbon Sequestration, Climate Change Adaptation, Urban Resilience, Climate Change Mitigation, Sustainable Development, Emission, Co-Benefits, Health, Particulate Matter, Air Pollution, Model, Gains, etc.

Human responses to climate change are generally categorized into two main types: mitigation and adaptation. Mitigation involves human interventions aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions from sources or enhancing carbon sinks (IPCC, 2014). This includes efforts such as carbon reduction and sink enhancement (Fawzy et al., 2020). Adaptation entails the process of adjusting to current or expected climate conditions and their associated impacts. In human systems, adaptation aims to minimize harm, while in natural systems, anthropogenic interventions can facilitate adjustments to expected climate conditions and their impacts (IPCC, 2014). Research related to climate change adaptation has predominantly focused on agricultural and urban aspects. Adaptation in agriculture has garnered significant attention due to its high vulnerability to climate change and its substantial implications for food security. Climate-smart agriculture (CSA) aims to enhance adaptive capacity and technology management policies in response to climate change by boosting agricultural productivity, establishing resilience mechanisms at all levels, and reducing agricultural greenhouse gas emissions (Chandra et al., 2018; Lipper et al., 2014). Urban research has primarily focused on enhancement of urban resilience, often through technology-based or nature-based solutions. Examples include urban drainage systems, light-colored building materials, and green infrastructure (Francis & Jensen, 2017; He et al., 2019; Lin et al., 2021).

Despite distinctions in scale and effectiveness between climate mitigation and adaptation, their boundaries are not always clear in practice due to their interconnected and synergistic relationship (Chen et al., 2022; Sharifi, 2021). Climate change mitigation and adaptation offer clear co-benefits, especially in addressing cascading issues related to air pollution, human health, and employment. These co-benefits can be effectively assessed through simulated models. The co-benefits associated with climate actions are wide-ranging, encompassing aspects such as food security, energy security, water security, soil remediation, and biodiversity conservation. Of particular interest are co-benefits and risk transfers associated with these areas. A variety of simulation models, including the GAINS model (Markandya et al., 2009; Wu et al. 2017), CGE model (An et al., 2023; Jiang et al., 2022), and LEAP model (Kuylenstierna et al., 2020), are commonly employed to evaluate the health and economic co-benefits through either soft or hard linkages. For example, these models can help assess the impact of greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation measures on mortality (West et al., 2013; Reis et al., 2022), or the indirect health effects of air pollutants (Scovronick, 2019).

However, it’s important to note that there are numerous uncertainties associated with climate change co-benefits. These uncertainties encompass situations where a benefit for one stakeholder may imply adverse impacts for another, as well as disparities in the costs and spatiotemporal scales of mitigation and adaptation strategies (Karlsson et al., 2020; Ürge-Vorsatz et al., 2014). These complexities make decision-making related to climate action challenging.

4.2 Burst words analysis

Burst words, which experience a sharp increase in frequency, serve as indicators of academic attention within specific time frames. They are valuable for analyzing research hotspots and predicting trends (Zhou et al., 2018). Figure 5 shows the burst words, their intensity, and their occurrence between 1994 and 2022. In the earlier years, prior to 2015, prominent burst words included “Trophic Cascade”, “Regime Shift”, “Ecosystem “, “Food Web”, “Deforestation”, and “Biodiversity”. These terms indicate that research on climate change cascading effects primarily revolved around ecosystem and biodiversity-related studies during this period. In recent years, key burst terms include “Health Co-Benefits”, “Sustainable Development Goal”, “Food Security”, “Pollution”, “Energy Efficiency”, and so on. This shift suggests that research focus has transitioned towards human well-being and sustainable development, with somewhat reduced attention to natural ecosystems. Notably, the change from “Global Change” to “Global Burden” in terminology underscores the growing consensus on the severity of climate change.

Fig. 5
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Keywords with bursts of research on cascading effects of climate change

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5 Research trends in climate change cascading effects

5.1 Integrated study of coupled natural and socio-economic processes

Disciplinary integration plays a vital role in tackling the multifaceted challenges posed by complex issues. Historically, research efforts have often been confined to specific academic disciplines like ecology, climate science, and environmental science. Yet, the study of climate change cascading effects demands interdisciplinary approach, necessitating collaboration across various fields. To gain a comprehensive understanding of the processes and mechanisms underlying these impacts, future research must establish multidisciplinary teams and foster collaborative networks.Such networks should facilitate cooperation among diverse disciplinary domains, including climate science, environmental science, geography, economics, management science, engineering, and more. This integrated approach is essential for systematically assessing the combined effects of climate change on both natural and human systems.

International collaborative research is undergoing a shift towards addressing climate change in regions that are particularly sensitive to its effects and areas where research gaps exist. In the realm of climate change cascading effects, the focus is transitioning from primarily developed countries or regions to ecologically vulnerable and economically underdeveloped areas, where the impact of climate change is most keenly felt. Currently, research on climate change cascading effects in vulnerable regions is predominantly centered on areas like the North and South Poles and the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. However, research in less economically developed regions remains limited (Lu et al., 2020; Yi et al., 2019). To amplify the voices of less developed countries or regions with limited climate research capabilities in climate negotiations, strengthening international cooperation is imperative.

Research is shifting its focus from natural ecosystems to the linkages between coupled natural-human systems. While research on natural ecosystems has covered a wide range of environments, including polar regions, plateaus, forests, lakes, and oceans, there is still a need to enhanced studies on the long-term adaptation and resilience of these ecosystems to climate change. Moreover, research on ecosystem resilience and stability, species adaptation, and the restoration and protection of ecosystem services within the context of climate change needs further strengthening. It’s essential to verify whether the patterns of climate change cascading effects observed in typical regions apply to other regions as well. Therefore, extending research findings from one regional ecosystem to a global scale necessitates robust global research cooperation to identify both general patterns and specific variations, ultimately improving the existing research framework.

Research on climate economic cascades that enhance equitable well-being is ongoing, with a focus on areas like food security, climate co-benefits, and climate equity. According to the sixth IPCC report, climate change can exacerbate regional inequalities and affect sustainable development (IPCC, 2023). Inequality studies have primarily concentrated on inter-country and socioeconomic indicators, such as industrial structure, income, and employment. However, several areas within inequality research still require attention, including disparities arising from mitigation and adaptation actions, as well as inequalities among different groups and individuals (Emmerling & Tavoni, 2021; Liu et al., 2022; Taconet et al., 2020). Notably, food security in the face of climate change, and its unequal distribution between developed and developing countries, demands ongoing consideration (Nelson et al., 2018; Davis et al., 2020; Ahmed et al., 2022; Mirzabaev et al., 2023; Arivelarasan et al., 2023). This focus can aid in systematically assessing the cascading effects of climate change on the food system.

5.2 Model integration and scenario simulation

The main challenge in cascading effects study arises from the interactions between climate and other environmental drivers, including potential synergistic effects, such as overfishing and invasive alien species (Loewen et al., 2020; Möllmann & Diekmann, 2012). The complexity of these factors makes it challenging to solely attribute observed phenomena to climate change. To mitigate the influence of extraneous factors, researchers have often opted for laboratory methods or single model simulations to establish causal relationships. However, limitations such as simulation conditions, scale differences, and unknown underlying elements introduce uncertainties when extrapolating findings to the global system (Chen et al., 2023; Devkota et al., 2023; Gårdmark & Huss, 2020; Svensson et al., 2017). In contrast, the integration of models and their simulations can better capture the complexity of multi-scale, multi-element, and multi-processes within the global climate economic system.

Approaches to modeling the socioeconomic impacts of climate change incorporate both bottom-up and top-down methods. The bottom-up approach focuses on quantifying individual impact pathways, providing insights into the interactions between different impacts. On the other hand, the top-down approach quantifies economic output on an aggregate level using econometrics (Dellink et al., 2019; Piontek et al., 2021). Two common modeling approaches for studying the cascading effects of climate change on socioeconomics are top-down integrated assessment model (IAMs) and computable general equilibrium model (CGE). IAMs are frequently used by organizations like the IPCC and government agencies to determine the optimal pathways for climate change mitigation from technical and economic viewpoints. However, uncertainties persist in areas such as damage persistence, adaptability to future projections, and the omission of important risks (Mathias et al., 2020; Piontek et al., 2021). CGE model concentrate on assessing climate change mitigation measures, especially in sectors like energy consumption and GHG emissions. Nevertheless, these models may produce less credible simulation results due to their idealized macroeconomic assumptions (Babatunde et al., 2017; Gillingham et al., 2015). One way to address the uncertainty issue of individual models is by using hybrid models that combine existing models. For example, a CGE model that simulates economic sector linkages can be coupled with ABM model that focuses on specific sectors. In future studies, the integration multiple models or enhancing the structures of existing models will improve the accuracy of scenario simulations, enabling a better assessment of the cascading effects of climate change.

Current studies have established theoretical frameworks for assessment based on known risks. However, numerous unknown risks have distinct characteristics that differentiate them from known risks (Li et al., 2021). Moreover, existing assessment methods often oversimplify complex interactions between impacts due to an inadequate understanding of the system. For example, while conceptual models like the climate impact chain (IC) can identify causal relationships between system risks, they may struggle when dealing with a multitude of interconnected relationships (Distefano et al., 2018; Schneiderbauer et al., 2020). Even in assessing the cascading effects within a single system, researchers sometimes choice to focus on primary risks while ignoring secondary risks. This can significantly reduce the accuracy of future predictions (Mirzabaev et al., 2023). Since it is difficult to verify events that have not yet occurred, future studies can enhance the reliability of existing policy effects by validating them with models (Menk et al., 2022). By quantitatively assessing the cascading effects of climate change on human socioeconomic systems, we can gain a better understanding of climate change risks and hazards. This understanding can serve as a scientific basis for the development of effective climate policies.

5.3 Cascading relationships on macro and micro scales

Climate change cascading effects are characterized by their distinct temporal and spatial scales, as well as the multiplicity of transmission pathways and the complexity of changes involved (Challinor et al., 2018). In terms of temporal scales, these effects unfold over the long term, and there is often a time lag in the response of systems to climate change (Viitasalo & Bonsdorff, 2022). Unfortunately, there are currently limited studies that provide predictions for the long-term dynamics of climate change cascading effects. Therefore, it is crucial for future research to focus on long-term projections to enhance the reliability of results. Additionally, human mitigation and adaptation strategies to climate change must consider both short-term and long-term policies. This comprehensive approach is necessary to address the evolving challenges posed by climate change cascading effects.

At the spatial scale, climate change cascading effects exhibit both systematic and irreversible impacts at the global scale, while also transmitting effects from small to large scales. For example, climate extremes can lead to regional reductions in food production, affecting food-importing countries or regions through global supply chains and trade networks (Anderson et al., 2019; Simpson et al., 2021). Despite the abundance of research on climate change at all scales, there is still a scarcity of quantitative cross-regional studies that systematically analyze the environmental-economic effects of climate change from a cascading perspective.

Clearly, describing cascading effects through a systems thinking and scaling perspective, which helps understand the interrelationships between systems or sectors, is vital for comprehending the process of risk transmission (Yokohata et al., 2019). The diverse impacts triggered by climate change are transmitted in a cascading manner, either amplifying or diminishing between systems. In natural ecosystems, climate change cascading effects are conveyed through material and energy flows, whereas in human socioeconomic systems, they are diffused as monetary, commodity, and information flows (Pan et al., 2021). While the study of climate change cascading effects within a single sector has been explored, the complexity significantly increases when assessing multiple interconnected climate change risks or affected sectors simultaneously (Harrison et al., 2016; Menk et al., 2022; Terzi et al., 2019).

Therefore, future research should strive to integrate quantitative, semi-quantitative, and qualitative methods, incorporating key elements from atmospheric, environmental, geographic, economic, and social domains. This approach would facilitate the development of a systematic framework for addressing climate change cascading effects on larger spatial scales.

6 Results and discussion

6.1 Results

Based on an analysis of 2093 articles from the WOS core database, this study employed bibliometric and knowledge mapping techniques using Citespace to examine research themes and hotspots in the field of climate change cascading effects. This comprehensive review aimed to shed light on the development history, research characteristics, areas of interest, emerging trends, and cooperative networks within this field. The insights gleaned from this review can serve as a valuable reference for future research and decision-making related to climate change cascading effects. In summary, the review of climate change cascading effects has revealed several key findings and trends.

From 1994 to 2022, there has been a consistent and notable increase in the number of publications with a particularly significant upsurge post-2018. trend suggests a growing scholarly interest in the field of climate change cascading effects. Most studies within this domain have gravitated towards environmental and ecological issues across various scales, and the quality of these articles has been consistently high. Furthermore, this research spans a diverse array of disciplines, with the focal points gradually transitioning from natural ecology towards the interplay between natural ecology and the social economy.

In terms of collaboration networks, countries engaged in relevant research activities are primarily concentrated in Europe, North America, East Asia, and Australia. Research cooperation between developed countries in Europe and North America appears to be notably robust. Notably, the United States leads the world in the number of publications, while Australia stands out for its particularly close international collaborations.

Among the institutions contributing significantly to this field, the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Tsinghua University and the University of Washington occupy prominent positions. It’s worth mentioning that research collaboration among institutions exhibits distinct geographical patterns. To foster stronger cross-regional cooperation, it is imperative to enhance collaborative efforts, as a global trend towards collaborative research in this area begins to take shape.

Keyword analysis underscores the primary research directions in this field are (1) cascading effects of climate change on natural ecosystems, (2) cascading effects of climate change on social-ecological ecosystems, and (3) climate change adaptation and mitigation actions and their co-benefits. The analysis of burst terms reveals an evolving research landscape where the hotspots are gradually shifting from a focus on ecosystems and biodiversity towards more comprehensive areas, such as human well-being and sustainable development.

It is increasingly recognized as a global consensus that the cascading effects of climate change interconnect natural and human systems on a broader scale, across more domains, and at deeper level. Consequently, there is a growing imperative to explore research methodologies and practical pathways for mitigating cascading risks and facilitating the transmission of cascading effects. These efforts are poised to play a pivotal role in addressing the challenges posed by climate change in the future.

6.2 Discussion

The results of bibliometric analysis reveal three distinct growth stages in the period from 1994 to 2022, each characterized by different research emphases. This dynamic pattern reflects the increasing attention that the field of climate change cascading effects has garnered over time, particularly due to the growing recognition of the complex and severe impacts of climate change on human societies.

Regarding the distribution of disciplines, climate change cascading effects research spans a broad spectrum of fields. However, given the direct and evident influence of climate change on the ecological environment, much of the research remains concentrated in environmental and ecological domains. Nonetheless, there is a notable shift towards studying the socio-economic aspects of cascading effects, indicating a broader and more comprehensive research trend.

In terms of cooperation networks, countries and institutions in economically developed regions play a dominant role in climate change research. This is partly due to the economic development dilemma faced by many developing countries, where efforts to control greenhouse gas emissions could potentially hinder economic growth. This inequality in research participation is likely to be a focal point in the future, as developing countries grapple with the dual challenges of economic development and climate governance.

The regional distribution of research output indicates a strong presence of European countries, with six of the top 10 contributors hailing from Europe, accounting for nearly half of the total papers published. Europe has been instrumental in advancing climate policy and decision-making. North America and China also play significant roles in climate research.

Finally, the analysis of emerging terms suggests a shifting research focus from ecosystems and biodiversity towards human well-being and sustainable development. This shift reflects the increasing recognition of the interconnectedness between natural and human systems on a global scale, across diverse fields, and at deeper levels. Efforts are now directed towards exploring strategies for climate change mitigation and adaptation in this context.

To achieve a comprehensive understanding of the field of climate change cascading effects research and assess the overall impacts of climate change, it is essential to move beyond mere literature review and conduct a broader range of literature analyses. While this paper has created a visual map of research hotspots and collaborative networks in the field over different time periods and systematically examined research progress, there are still certain limitations. In terms of research methodology, this study exclusively relied on Citespace software. Future research could enhance the robustness of results by incorporating other bibliometric software tools.

6.3 Policy recommendations

This study carries several implications for climate policymakers. Climate change cascade research spans numerous disciplines, highlighting the urgent need for interdisciplinary collaboration to scale up climate action. The findings of this study reveal that universities are the primary institutions involved in climate change cascade research, while research institutes and government agencies are relatively underrepresented. This disparity can hinder the effective translation of climate change research into actionable policies. To better address climate change, it’s advisable to encourage research institutes and government agencies to conduct more practical climate change research.

Regarding international cooperation, existing collaborative research predominantly focuses on partnerships among a few developed countries or institutions within specific regions. However, there is a noticeable lack of research on cooperation between developed and developing countries, as well as across regions. Simultaneously, independent research is primarily concentrated in developed countries, leaving developing nations, which are most affected by climate change, with limited research capacity. In this context, international cooperation and collective climate action are imperative to combat global climate change. Through exchanges and collaboration, we can foster climate awareness, scientific and technological innovation, and enhance the international community’s comprehension of climate issues and the establishment of action-oriented goals. Moreover, international cooperation can guide investment direction, market development, and economic progress, facilitating the creation of a climate- and environmentally-friendly market system. This can be achieved through financial support mechanisms, international trade regulations, and other strategic means.

In terms of research and application, climate change exerts a global impact, yet the cascading effects on different countries or regions vary. Therefore, when conducting research or formulating policies, it is crucial to systematically investigate and comprehend the intricate interactions between regional resource strategies and climate actions. This approach can lead to more adaptive and integrated climate policies. Furthermore, ongoing research indicates that climate change feedback processes within natural and human systems give rise to complex interactions, sometimes resulting in uncertain cascading risks. Existing studies may not encompass the entire spectrum of these risks (Rising et al., 2022). While quantifying these unknown risks remains challenging, they should be taken into account in decision-making processes as a precautionary measure to enhance climate resilience in the absence of clear risks.