Introduction

The fuel-and-energy complex plays an important role in the national safety and socioeconomic development. As one of the leading exporters of primary energy, our country occupies one of the leading places in the world energy market, offering its significant experience in the development of almost all energy technologies and the construction of corresponding infrastructure. The structural organization of the energy system is featured by the presence of both centralized and isolated energy systems.

The most significant limitations for the development of the energy sector are identified from an analysis of their functional characteristics. These include the increased tax burden placed on the fuel and energy complex, depletion of deposits, provision of the energy resource base, the high capital intensity of exploiting new deposits, as well as infrastructural depreciation and low rates of its renewal. In addition, the transformation of world energy markets should be noted, according to which demand volume and structure undergo significantly changes in the context of increased competition. In some cases, new competitive positions such as wind energy are formed, complicating the assessment of the strategic prospects for the development of the industry. The minimization of the climate impact becomes the top priority. This leads to the diversification of the energy structure and expanded use of non-carbon and renewable energy sources.

A key role in the development of Russia’s energy resources is played by the adoption of new technologies. This applies not only to the extraction, production, and transportation of hydrocarbons, but also to the formation of the renewable energy industry, distributed generation, energy-saving and energy-efficient technologies used in providing transport, housing and communal services, as well as for industrial purposes, etc. In this regard, the development of the nuclear power can be expected to proceed in terms of the design and implementation of new reactor plant projects that are better adapted to new tasks and more competitive in the current circumstances.

In order to ensure the dynamic socio-economic development of the country, the energy sector should optimally satisfy emerging external and internal needs. This is to be facilitated by an increase in the share of domestic equipment and the quality of developments.

An important condition for the development of the energy complex involves the full satisfaction of the consumer’s requirements for the availability and nomenclature of energy, terms of connection, price, etc.

It should be noted that the need to solve aggravating environmental problems is reflected in the energy strategy until 2035, which sets specific goals for the modernization of the energy complex. These goals will contribute to the growth of renewable power generation and nuclear power plants. For the successful development of the nuclear energy, a condition of a safe fuel cycle and non-proliferation mode of nuclear materials is set. The introduction of high-temperature gas-cooled reactors (HTGRs) will improve the environmental acceptability of nuclear technologies for almost all areas of energy consumption.

From this point of view, the formation of a domestic Russian scientific, technical, and industrial development base, the production of contemporary power equipment, as well as service provision in the key nodes of the energy complex functioning, become the key tasks for the current stage in the development of the country’s nuclear power complex. HTGRs can improve almost all nuclear technological phases to the highest degree of a safety compliance to provide high temperature heat generation for industrial and energy technologies.

The systemic analysis for the prospective needs of the country’s energy complex in new high-temperature technologies carried out in the present work takes into account global trends in the transformation of the energy complex. The study used Rosstat statistical data, reports of the Russian Ministry of Energy, strategic development programs for Russian industrial sectors, etc. An analysis of the main trends in the field of the thermal energy identifies development trends up until 2100. The analysis includes the data for making the assumptions about the future development of industries and the consumption of thermal energy.

Based on the obtained information, conclusions concerning the demand for the HTGR thermal energy are presented.

Consumption structure and predictive demand for the thermal energy

The successful use of the nuclear energy for the electric power industry creates prerequisites for a heat supply with a wide coverage of various heat consumers. The development of the non-electrical field of energy is analyzed. The final consumption of thermal energy in 2021 amounted to 1208 mln Gcal, including 572 Gcal for industries and 581.4 Gcal for the population and budgetary organizations. The final annual consumption by district heating systems has decreased over the past 17 years from 1382 to 1208 mln Gcal, per capita consumption—from 9.6 to 8.3 Gcal/person [1].

In the present paper, the largest consumers of thermal energy were investigated (see Tables 1 and 2).

Table 1 Structure of thermal energy consumption
Full size table
Table 2 Structure of industrial thermal energy consumption
Full size table

In order to create thermal energy demand scenarios, the development of individual industrial sectors was studied along with population change forecasts, industrial development involving minimal greenhouse gas emissions, as well as considerations involving the social sphere [2]. At present, have been approved for the development of various industrial sectors (metallurgical, mechanical engineering, food, processing, forestry, agriculture, fisheries, chemical and petrochemical complexes, construction, housing and communal services, transport) to include different scenarios and strategic goals that are be achieved as a result of their implementation. In general, planning extends either to 2030 or to 2036.

In this connection, it should be noted that the development of each industrial sector and social sphere requires synchronization with the energy infrastructure. Thus, since technological processes and the growth of construction require the provision of energy resources, the demand for them will only increase, requiring increased capacities in the areas of new industries and settlements.

The study of industrial growth rates identified the formation of pronounced trends until the end of the forecast period. In the present work, in order to estimate demand for thermal energy up to 2100, we will assume that the current trends will continue.

The considered strategies take several development scenarios into account. In order to assess the demand for thermal energy in each industrial sector, the minimum and maximum scenarios were selected, which in fact are the sum of the demand for all economic sectors. While a conservative scenario of thermal energy demand was drawn up on the basis of the minimum scenarios, the strategic scenario was formed based on the maximum scenarios. The analysis of the developed scenarios indicates a change in the structure of the thermal energy consumption. However, a general trend towards increased industrial consumption and decreased consumption on the part of the human population and oil refining industry can be noted.

HTGR application

The developed scenarios are characterized by an increase in the industrial consumption of thermal energy, which creates prerequisites for the development of the distributed high-temperature energy. For enterprises that consume high-potential heat of the continuous production cycle, it is advisable to locate thermal stations in the immediate vicinity of the production. Often, mining and processing industries can be located in hard-to-reach zones. In this case, negative economic effects arise due to the significant proportion of the total cost made up by fuel logistics. In order to satisfy the thermal energy demand of such plants, HTGRs of various capacities can be used.

Continuous cycle enterprises that demand high-potential heat include metallurgy, mechanical engineering and metalworking, chemical and rubber industries, as well as the industries involved in the production of petroleum products. For such industries, the high-potential heat of HTGRs is highly attractive.

In order to assess the need for HTGR capacities, let us assume that the thermal capacities required to satisfy the need for high-potential heat in expanded continuous cycle production will be fully provided by HTGRs and that decommissioned capacities will be replaced by HTGRs. Based on the data about the age structure of thermal stations at the end of 2020 and taking into account that the service life of the thermal station comprises 50 years, two scenarios of the demand for HTGRs have been developed: conservative and strategic [3]. The demand for HTGRs can be estimated to be over 80 and about 150 GW by 2100 for a conservative scenario and strategic scenario, respectively.

HTGR advantages

HTGR thermal energy is more expensive than that produced by TPP and boiler facilities using conventional fuels. In accordance with the estimates, the cost of 1 kWh for the HTGR is 1.8–4.2 rubbles, while, for traditional fuels, it does not exceed 1.65 rubbles. However, these estimates relate to the current state of prices and are difficult to extrapolate for the long term. In addition, it should be taken into account that the combustion of traditional hydrocarbon fuels at modern TPPs and boiler facilities has a negative impact on the environment in terms of both pollutant emissions and significant fresh water use.

The estimates show that the implementation of HTGRs will improve the environmental situation not only for pollutants, but also for carbon dioxide, which is currently viewed as the main source of a negative climate change on the planet. Our country has international obligations to reduce its emissions.

The emissions of heat production facilities using conventional fuels were estimated on the basis of materials provided in [4]. According to the estimates, carbon dioxide emissions can be reduced by 2100 by almost 2 and 7 times under conservative and strategic scenario, respectively (Fig. 1a). A similar situation is observed for methane and nitrogen dioxide emissions (see Fig. 1b, c; [5]).

Fig. 1
figure 1

Pollutant emissions of TPPs and boiler facilities, operating gaseous (1), solid (2), liquid (3), and biofuels (4), as well as the possibility of reducing them for the strategic (solid line) and conservative (dashed line) scenario: emissions of carbon dioxide (a), methane (b), and nitrogen dioxide (c)

Full size image

In terms of thermal energy production, among the most important environmental and economic factors are the irretrievable water losses from cooling towers. On average, about 0.74 t of distilled water is emitted into the atmosphere during the production of 1 MW of thermal energy; this is mainly obtained from surface runoff sources, leading to the drainage of large areas [6]. Estimates show that the introduction of HTGRs can have a significant impact on freshwater savings, which is not only of environmental significance, but also of great economic benefit (Fig. 2).

Fig. 2
figure 2

Freshwater savings: 1—total needs; 2, 3—savings in the implementation of the strategic and conservative scenario, respectively

Full size image

Another economic aspect arises in terms of savings of conventional fuels. Estimates show that by 2100, savings will amount to more than 7000 and 11,000 billion m3 of natural gas under the conservative and strategic scenarios, respectively (Fig. 3). In this connection, we may note that the reduction in the coal production and combustion will also reduce radioactive emissions into the atmosphere [7].

Fig. 3
figure 3

Savings in natural gas (a), coal (b), and oil (c) compared to the total demand (1) according to the strategic (2) and conservative scenario (3)

Full size image

Hydrogen production

In order to construct scenarios for hydrogen demand in the framework of hydrogen energy development, it was assumed that established trends in terms of hydrogen consumption will continue until 2100 [8, 9]. Based on this assumption, the projected demand for the hydrogen production was calculated using the adjusted strategic indicators.

For the purposes of this study, we will assume that hydrogen for consumption under the hydrogen energy development scenarios will be produced by the steam conversion of methane using the HTGR. Then, based on the characteristics of the nuclear power engineering plant (NPEP), including the HTGR and the chemical engineering part having a thermal capacity of 800 MW, taking into account the ICUF of at least 90%, the NPEP will produce at least 440,000 t of hydrogen per year. Thus, in order to meet the demand for the hydrogen production, an additional 70–210 GW of the HTGR thermal capacity will be required depending on the hydrogen energy development scenario.

Conclusion

The present work investigated the structure of thermal energy consumption in the context of the prospective development of the industrial sector. The most significant thermal energy consumers were identified. The adopted strategies for the development of the relevant sectors in the national economy were analyzed. Based on the development scenarios, forecast estimates of thermal energy demand for each industrial sector up to 2100 were formulated. The industries in which high-potential HTGR heat is most appropriate due to process features are distinguished. The forecast demand in thermal capacities of HTGR is calculated on the assumption that the development of industrial sectors will rely on the thermal energy of these reactor type, and that the decommissioned capacities will also be replaced by HTGRs. In this case, the demand for thermal power will be 85–145 GW.

The demand for HTGRs in the development of hydrogen energy is considered separately. The need for thermal power solely for the production of hydrogen will be 70–210 GW depending on the different hydrogen energy development scenarios.