Abstract
Seasonal prediction of summer precipitation over eastern China is closely linked to the East Asian monsoon circulation, which is largely affected by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). In this study, results show that spring soil moisture (SM) over the Indo-China peninsula (ICP) could be a reliable seasonal predictor for eastern China summer precipitation under non-ENSO conditions. When springtime SM anomalies are present over the ICP, they trigger a structured response in summertime precipitation over most of eastern China. The resultant south-to-north, tri-polar configuration of precipitation anomalies has a tendency to yield increased (decreased) precipitation in the Yangtze River basin and decreased (increased) in South and North China with a drier (wetter) spring soil condition in the ICP. The analyses show that ENSO exerts a powerful control on the East Asian circulation system in the ENSO-decaying summer. In the case of ENSO forcing, the seasonal predictability of the ICP spring SM for eastern China summer precipitation is suppressed. However, in the absence of the influence of ENSO sea surface temperature anomalies from the preceding winter, the SM anomalies over the ICP induce abnormal local heating and a consequent geopotential height response owing to its sustained control on local temperature, which could, in turn, lead to abnormal eastern China summer precipitation by affecting the East Asian summer monsoon circulation. The present findings provide a better understanding of the complexity of summer climate predictability over eastern China, which is of potential significance for improving the livelihood of the people.
摘 要
中国东部夏季降水的季节性预测与东亚季风环流系统密切相关,这在很大程度上受到厄尔尼诺-南方涛动(ENSO)的影响。本研究结果发现,在非ENSO条件下,中南半岛春季土壤湿度可能是中国东部夏季降水一个可靠的季节预测因子。中南半岛地区春季土壤湿度出现异常时,会引发中国东部地区夏季降水异常产生结构性响应。当中南半岛春季土壤偏干(湿),往往导致夏季长江流域降水量增加(减少),而在华南和华北部分地区降水量减少(增加)。分析结果进一步表明,在ENSO衰退期夏季,ENSO对东亚环流系统具有强大的控制作用。在存在ENSO强迫的情况下,中南半岛春季土壤湿度对中国东部夏季降水的季节可预测性受到抑制。然而,在没有前冬ENSO海温异常影响的情况下,中南半岛持续的土壤湿度异常导致下垫面热状况发生变化,使得高层位势高度场出现异常响应,最终通过影响东亚夏季风环流系统而使得中国东部夏季降水异常。本文研究结果为提高中国东部夏季气候预测水平提供科学参考,具有潜在的社会意义。
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Acknowledgements
This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 41831175), the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities (Grant No. B210201029), the Key Scientific and Technological Project of the Ministry of Water Resources, P. R. China (SKS-2022001), the Joint Open Project of the KLME and CIC-FEMD (Grant No. KLME202202), and the Open Research Fund of the State Key Laboratory of Tropical Oceanography (South China Sea Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences) (Grant No. LTO2110). We would like to acknowledge relevant institutions for providing the data sources for this study. The precipitation data was provided by the University of East Anglia Climate Research Unit (https://crudata.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/hrg/), the soil moisture data was provided by the Global Land Data Assimilation System version 2.0 (https://hydro1.gesdisc.eosdis.nasa.gov/data/GLDAS/), the atmospheric reanalysis dataset was obtained from the Japan Meteorological Agency (https://jra.kishou.go.jp/JRA-55/index_en.html), and the Oceanic Niño Index was gathered from the Climate Prediction Center of U.S. (http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php).
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Article Highlights
• The ICP spring soil moisture can be used as a potential seasonal predictor for summer precipitation over eastern China in non-ENSO years.
• The seasonal predictability based on ICP soil moisture is suppressed in ENSO-decaying years, while it is evident under non-ENSO years.
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Enhanced Seasonal Predictability of Spring Soil Moisture over the Indo-China Peninsula for Eastern China Summer Precipitation under Non-ENSO Conditions
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Gao, C., Li, G. Enhanced Seasonal Predictability of Spring Soil Moisture over the Indo-China Peninsula for Eastern China Summer Precipitation under Non-ENSO Conditions. Adv. Atmos. Sci. 40, 1632–1648 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-023-2361-x
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-023-2361-x
Key words
- summer precipitation
- El Niño-Southern Oscillation
- soil moisture
- Indo-China Peninsula
- eastern China
- East Asian summer monsoon