Abstract
Variability in the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) brings the risk of heavy flooding or drought to the Yangtze River basin, with potentially devastating impacts. Early forecasts of the likelihood of enhanced or reduced monsoon rainfall can enable better management of water and hydropower resources by decision-makers, supporting livelihoods and major economic and population centres across eastern China. This paper demonstrates that the EASM is predictable in a dynamical forecast model from the preceding November, and that this allows skilful forecasts of summer mean rainfall in the Yangtze River basin at a lead time of six months. The skill for May–June–July rainfall is of a similar magnitude to seasonal forecasts initialised in spring, although the skill in June–July–August is much weaker and not consistently significant. However, there is some evidence for enhanced skill following El Niño events. The potential for decadal-scale variability in forecast skill is also examined, although we find no evidence for significant variation.
摘要
东亚夏季风的变异给长江流域带来了严重的洪水或干旱风险, 相应灾害影响巨大. 对季风降水多寡的提前预测, 有助于管理人员更好地调控水电资源, 保障中国东部人民生产生活和社会经济发展. 基于一个动力气候模式的预测结果, 表明前一年11月起报的东亚夏季风是有可预测性的, 因此, 长江流域夏季降水的有效预测可提前半年. 其中, 模式前一年11月起报的5–7月降水与春季起报的预测水平相当, 而6–8月降水的预测技巧显著偏低. 但有证据表明, El Niño衰退年夏季的预测技巧是相对偏高的. 通过进一步诊断年代际尺度的气候变率, 发现其对长江流域降水的预测技巧并没有明显贡献.
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Acknowledgements
This work and its contributors were supported by the UK-China Research & Innovation Partnership Fund through the Met Office Climate Science for Service Partnership (CSSP) China as part of the Newton Fund. This paper contains modified Copernicus Climate Change Service information (2021), and neither the European Commission nor ECMWF is responsible for any use that may be made of that Copernicus information or data.
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Article Highlights
• The East Asian summer monsoon in May–July can be skilfully predicted in a dynamical model initialised in November.
• This can be used to forecast Yangtze River basin summer rainfall using a simple linear regression model.
• The skill for May–July rainfall is comparable to seasonal forecasts at shorter lead times, but the skill for June–August is much lower.
• No evidence is found of decadal-scale variation in skill.
This paper is a contribution to the 2nd Special Issue on Climate Science for Service Partnership China.
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Bett, P.E., Dunstone, N., Golding, N. et al. Skilful Forecasts of Summer Rainfall in the Yangtze River Basin from November. Adv. Atmos. Sci. 40, 2082–2091 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-023-2251-2
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-023-2251-2
Key words
- seasonal forecasting
- interannual forecasting
- flood forecasting
- Yangtze basin rainfall
- East Asian summer monsoon