Abstract
This study depicts the sub-seasonal prediction of the South China Sea summer monsoon onset (SCSSMO) and investigates the associated oceanic and atmospheric processes, utilizing the hindcasts of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2). Typically, the SCSSMO is accompanied by an eastward retreat of the western North Pacific subtropical high (WNPSH), development of the cross-equatorial flow, and an increase in the east-west sea surface temperature (SST) gradient. These features are favorable for the onset of westerlies and strengthening of convection and precipitation over the South China Sea (SCS). A more vigorous SCSSMO process shows a higher predictability, and vice versa. The NCEP CFSv2 can successfully predict the onset date and evolution of the monsoon about 4 pentads (20 days) in advance (within 1–2 pentads) for more forceful (less vigorous) SCSSMO processes. On the other hand, the climatological SCSSMO that occurs around the 27th pentad can be accurately predicted in one pentad, and the predicted SCSSMO occurs 1–2 pentads earlier than the observed with a weaker intensity at longer leadtimes. Warm SST biases appear over the western equatorial Pacific preceding the SCSSMO. These biases induce a weaker-than-observed WNPSH as a Gill-type response, leading to weakened low-level easterlies over the SCS and hence an earlier and less vigorous SCSSMO. In addition, after the SCSSMO, remarkable warm biases over the eastern Indian Ocean and the SCS and cold biases over the WNP induce weaker-than-observed westerlies over the SCS, thus also contributing to the less vigorous SCSSMO.
摘 要
本文利用 NCEP CFSv2 研究南海夏季风爆发的次季节可预报性及其相关的大气和海洋过程. 气候态上, 南海夏季风 27 侯左右爆发, 伴随着西北太平洋副热带高压东退, 越赤道气流发展以及东-西海温梯度增加, 这些大气-海洋过程使得低层西风向南海推进, 对流和降水加强. 南海夏季风爆发的可预报性与其爆发过程强弱有关, 在季风爆发强 (弱) 年可以提前 20 天 (5-10天) 准确预报. 在超前时间 5 天之内模式可以准确抓住南海夏季风的气候态爆发时间. 但随着超前时间增加, CFSv2 预报南海季风爆发较观测提前 1–2 侯, 并且爆发较弱. 这是由于在季风爆发之前, 赤道西太平洋暖海温偏差引起 Gill 响应, 使得西北太平洋副热带高压较观测弱, 造成爆发之前南海东风偏弱, 从而导致爆发提前以及爆发减弱. 此外, 在季风爆发之后, 东印度洋和南海暖海温偏差以及西北太平洋冷海温偏差使得南海西风减弱, 同样造成模式中南海夏季风爆发减弱.
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Acknowledgements
The authors thank the two anonymous reviewers and the associate editors-in-chief for the constructive comments on the earlier version of the manuscript. This research was jointly supported by the Guangdong Major Project of Basic and Applied Basic Research (Grant No. 2020B0301030004), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 42088101, 41975074 and 42175023), the Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (XDA20100304), the Second Comprehensive Scientific Investigation on the Tibetan Plateau of China (2019QZKK0208), and the Guangdong Province Key Laboratory for Climate Change and Natural Disaster Studies (Grant No. 2020B1212060025).
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Article Highlights
• The NCEP CFSv2 can accurately predict the climatological SCSSMO one pentad in advance.
• SST biases in the Indian Ocean and the western Pacific jointly affect the prediction skills of SCSSMO by the CFSv2.
• A vigorous SCSSMO process shows higher predictability and vice versa.
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Wang, W., Yang, S., Zhang, T. et al. Sub-seasonal Prediction of the South China Sea Summer Monsoon Onset in the NCEP Climate Forecast System Version 2. Adv. Atmos. Sci. 39, 1969–1981 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-022-1403-0
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-022-1403-0