Abstract
Assimilation of the Advanced Geostationary Radiance Imager (AGRI) clear-sky radiance in a regional model is performed. The forecasting effectiveness of the assimilation of two water vapor (WV) channels with conventional observations for the “21·7” Henan extremely heavy rainfall is analyzed and compared with a baseline test that assimilates only conventional observations in this study. The results show that the 24-h cumulative precipitation forecast by the assimilation experiment with the addition of the AGRI exceeds 500 mm, compared to a maximum value of 532.6 mm measured by the national meteorological stations, and that the location of the maximum precipitation is consistent with the observations. The results for the short periods of intense precipitation processes are that the simulation of the location and intensity of the 3-h cumulative precipitation is also relatively accurate. The analysis increment shows that the main difference between the two sets of assimilation experiments is over the ocean due to the additional ocean observations provided by FY-4A, which compensates for the lack of ocean observations. The assimilation of satellite data adjusts the vertical and horizontal wind fields over the ocean by adjusting the atmospheric temperature and humidity, which ultimately results in a narrower and stronger WV transport path to the center of heavy precipitation in Zhengzhou in the lower troposphere. Conversely, the WV convergence and upward motion in the control experiment are more dispersed; therefore, the precipitation centers are also correspondingly more dispersed.
摘要
本文在区域模式中实现了多通道扫描成像辐射计 (AGRI) 晴空辐射的直接同化. 并利用该同化系统分析了同化 AGRI 两个水汽通道和常规观测资料对河南郑州“21·7”暴雨的预报效果, 与仅同化常规观测资料的基准试验进行了对比. 结果表明, 同时同化 AGRI 晴空辐射和常规观测资料, 在郑州地区预报的 24 小时累积降水最大值超过 500 mm, 接近郑州站 (国家基本站) 同时段累计降水的观测值 (532.6 mm), 模拟的最大降水位置也与观测位置基本一致. 除了 24 小时累积降水显著改进外, 3 小时累积阶段性降水位置和强度相对仅同化常规观测也更加准确. 由于 FY-4A 卫星 AGRI 仪器能够提供额外的海洋观测, 弥补了常规观测资料在海洋上的不足, 因此两组同化试验的分析增量差异主要位于海洋上空. 增加 AGRI 辐射资料同化后, 调节了模式中的大气温度和湿度分布, 进而调整垂直和水平风场, 最终使得对流层低层的水汽更为准确地输送到郑州. 相反, 在未进行同化的控制试验和仅同化常规观测的试验中, 水汽的辐合和上升运动较为分散, 相应地模拟的降水中心也更加分散.
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Acknowledgements
This study was supported by the National Key R&D Program of China (Grant Nos. 2017YFC1501803 and 2017YFC1502102). The authors appreciate Miss Ruojing YAN for support of rainfall scripts.
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Article Highlights
• AGRI clear-sky WV channels radiance is effectively assimilated in a regional high-resolution model.
• The location and intensity of both 24-h and 3-h cumulative precipitation with the assimilation of the AGRI are more accurate than without such assimilation.
• The FY-4A AGRI compensates for the lack of ocean observations and can improve the structure of atmospheric circulations.
This paper is a contribution to the special issue on the 14th International Conference on Mesoscale Convective Systems and High-Impact Weather.
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Xu, L., Cheng, W., Deng, Z. et al. Assimilation of the FY-4A AGRI Clear-Sky Radiance Data in a Regional Numerical Model and Its Impact on the Forecast of the “21·7” Henan Extremely Persistent Heavy Rainfall. Adv. Atmos. Sci. 40, 920–936 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-022-1380-3
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-022-1380-3
Key words
- FY-4A
- AGRI
- clear-sky radiance
- satellite data assimilation
- “21·7” Henan extremely persistent heavy rainfall