Abstract
Given that climate extremes in China might have serious regional and global consequences, an increasing number of studies are examining temperature extremes in China using the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models. This paper investigates recent changes in temperature extremes in China using 25 state-of-the-art global climate models participating in CMIP5. Thirteen indices that represent extreme temperature events were chosen and derived by daily maximum and minimum temperatures, including those representing the intensity (absolute indices and threshold indices), duration (duration indices), and frequency (percentile indices) of extreme temperature. The overall performance of each model is summarized by a “portrait” diagram based on relative root-mean-square error, which is the RMSE relative to the median RMSE of all models, revealing the multi-model ensemble simulation to be better than individual model for most indices. Compared with observations, the models are able to capture the main features of the spatial distribution of extreme temperature during 1986–2005. Overall, the CMIP5 models are able to depict the observed indices well, and the spatial structure of the ensemble result is better for threshold indices than frequency indices. The spread amongst the CMIP5 models in different subregions for intensity indices is small and the median CMIP5 is close to observations; however, for the duration and frequency indices there can be wide disagreement regarding the change between models and observations in some regions. The model ensemble also performs well in reproducing the observational trend of temperature extremes. All absolute indices increase over China during 1961–2005.
Article PDF
Similar content being viewed by others
Avoid common mistakes on your manuscript.
References
Alexander, L. V., and Coauthors, 2006: Global observed changes in daily climate extremes of temperature and precipitation. J. Geophys. Res., 111, D05109, doi: 10.1029/2005JD006290.
Avila, F. B., A. J. Pitman, M. G. Donat, L. V. Alexander, and G. Abramowitz, 2012: Climate model simulated changes in temperature extremes due to land cover change. J. Geophys. Res., 177, D04108, doi: 10.1029/2011JD016382.
Bindoff, N. L., and Coauthors, 2013: Detection and attribution of climate change: From global to regional. Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, T. F. Stocker et al., Eds., Cambridge University Press, 867–952
Ding, T., W. H. Qian, and Z. W. Yan, 2009: Characteristics and changes of cold surge events over China during 1960–2007. Atmos. Oceanic Sci. Lett., 2(6), 339–344.
Ding, Y. H., J. Zhang, and Y. F. Song, 2002: Changes in weather and climate extreme events and their association with the global warming. Meteorological Monthly, 28(3), 3–7. (in Chinese)
Donat, M. G., and Coauthors, 2013: Updated analyses of temperature and precipitation extreme indices since the beginning of the twentieth century: The HadEX2 dataset. J. Geophys. Res., 118, 2098–2118, doi: 10.1029/2012JD018606.
Flato, G., and Coauthors, 2013: Evaluation of climate models. Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, T. F. Stocker et al, Eds., Cambridge University Press, 741–866.
Frich, P., L. V. Alexander, P. Della-Marta, B. Gleason, M. Haylock, A. Tank, and T. Peterson, 2002: Observed coherent changes in climatic extremes during the second half of the twentieth century. Climatic Research, 19, 193–212.
Gleckler, P. J., K. E. Taylor, and C. Doutriaux, 2008: Performance metrics for climate models. J. Geophys. Res., 113, D06104, doi: 10.1029/2007JD008972.
Hutchinson M. F., 1999: ANUSPLIN version 4. 0 user guide. Centre for Resources and Environmental Studies, Australian National Univeristy, Canberra ACT 0200, 51pp Australia.
Kharin, V. V., F. W. Zwiers, X. Zhang, and M. Wehner, 2013: Changes in temperature and precipitation extremes in the CMIP5 ensemble. Climatic Change, 119(2), 345–357.
Knutti, R., and J. Sedláček, 2013: Robustness and uncertainties in the new CMIP5 climate model projections. Nature Climate Change, 3, 363–373, doi: 10.1038/nclimate1716.
National Report Committee, 2007: China’s National Assessment Report on Climate Change. Science Press, 148 pp. (in Chinese)
New, M., M. Hulme, and P. Jones, 1999: Representing twentiethcentury space-time climate variability. Part I: Development of a 1961–90 mean monthly terrestrial climatology. J. Climate, 12: 829–856.
New, M., M. Hulme, and P. Jones, 2000: Representing twentiethcentury space-time climate variability. Part II: Development of 1901–96 monthly grids of terrestrial surface climate. J. Climate, 13, 2217–2238.
Orlowsky, B., and S. I. Seneviratne, 2012: Global changes in extreme events: Regional and seasonal dimension. Climatic Change, 110(3–4), 669–696.
Sheffield J., and Coauthors, 2013: North American climate in CMIP5 experiments. Part I: Evaluation of historical simulations of continental and regional climatology. J. Climate, 26, 9209–9245. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00592.1.
Sillmann, J., V. V. Kharin, X. Zhang, F. W. Zwiers, and D. Bronaugh, 2013: Climate extremes indices in the CMIP5 multimodel ensemble: Part 1. Model evaluation in the present climate. J. Geophys. Res., 118(4), 1716–1733.
Taylor, K. E., 2001: Summarizing multiple aspects of model performance in a single diagram. J. Geophys. Res., 106, 7183–7192.
Taylor, K. E., R. J. Stouffer, and G. A. Meehl, 2012: An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 93, 485–498, doi: 10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00094.1.
Tebaldi, C., K. Hayhoe, J. M. Arblaster, and G. A. Meehl, 2006: Going to the extremes. Climatic Change, 79(3–4), 185–211, doi: 10.1007/s10584-006-9051-4.
Wang, J., Z. H. Jiang, J. Song, and Y. G. Ding, 2008: Evaluating the simulation of the GCMS on the extreme temperature indices in China. Acta Geographica Sinica, 63(3), 227–236. (in Chinese)
Wen, H. Q., X. B. Zhang, Y. Xu, and B. Wang, 2013: Detecting human influence on extreme temperatures in China. Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, 1171–1176, doi: 10.1002/grl.50285.
Wu, J., and X. J. Gao, 2013: A gridded daily observation dataset over China region and comparison with the other datasets. Chinese Journal of Geophysics, 56(4)), 1102–1111, doi: 10.6038/cjg20130406. (in Chinese)
Xu, Y., 2012: The projection and possible risks of future extreme weather events. Climate Change Green Paper—Climate Financing and Low-Carbon Development, 169–177.
Xu, Y., X. J. Gao, Y. Shen, C. H. Xu, Y. Shi, and F. Giorgi, 2009: A daily temperature dataset over China and its application in validating a RCM simulation. Adv. Atmos. Sci., 26(4), 763–772, doi: 10.1007/s00376-009-9029-z.
Yao, Y., Y. Luo, and J. B. Huang, 2012: Evaluation and projection of temperature extremes over China based on CMIP5 Model. Advances in Climate Change Research, 3, 179–185.
Zheng, Y. H., and Coauthors, 2011: The Second National Assessment Report on Climate Change. Science Press, 710 pp. (in Chinese)
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Dong, S., Xu, Y., Zhou, B. et al. Assessment of indices of temperature extremes simulated by multiple CMIP5 models over China. Adv. Atmos. Sci. 32, 1077–1091 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-015-4152-5
Received:
Revised:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-015-4152-5